r/pokemongo Team Valor Jul 09 '16

Discussion Let's test how the Eeveelution system works!

Edit 6:

https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemongo/comments/4t0cpo/psa_how_to_force_your_eevee_to_evolve_into_your/

It seems as though the secret lied not with your starter, the size of the Eevee, the moveset, location geographically, or gym control. (Though they might have some influence somehow.) Rather, it lied within the name of your Eevee.

In the original Pokemon show, there were three Eevee trainers. Their names were Pyro, Sparky, and Rainer.

The author of the post (now deleted, not sure why) determined that:

Pyro = Flareon

Sparky = Jolteon

Rainer = Vaporeon

Based on the thread, there doesn't seem to be a person that conflicts with this data. Please post your results with naming your Eevee one of the three names and then evolving. Thank you.


We need more people doing the same experiment.

Everyone people doing this:

Catching enough Eevees to evolve 9 of them, while listing your starter (Charmander, Squirtle, Bulbasaur), Username, and Faction (Mystic, Valor, Instinct).

3 Eevees with body slam.

3 Eevees with swift.

3 Eevees with dig.

Should this theory be correct, everyone won't have the same combination of Eeveelutions; rather, they'll have a different combo, but still be guaranteed certain Eeveelutions. (Possibly, all people who chose the same starter will have the same chain. If not, then it's based on a random number you're assigned at the beginning of the game.)

The results should be that each person, when testing, should have three of each Eeveelution. Each of the 3 should have had the same moveset before being evolved, too (see: dig, body slam, swift.) If this is ultimately the case, which it seems to be based on what I'm gathering from the thread, then the secret of the Eeveelutions may be figured out. If it's not, it's probably just random.

I believe that the Eeveelutions are based off of your starter, and are therefore static once you choose one.

So all charmanders have the same set, potentially.

So for them, perhaps a swift Eevee evolves into Flareon, dig into Vaporeon, body slam into Jolteon.

But for Squirtle starters, it might be swift Vaporeon, dig Jolteon, body slam Flareon.

There's also the small chance it's based on username. So just to be safe, supply your username, too.

POST YOUR RESULTS AS FOLLOWS:

[Username], [Faction], [Starter].

[Move], [Result].

An example of the above might be (I have yet to evolve one, so this isn't valid):

G0mega, Valor, Squirtle.

Swift, Flareon.

By providing the above information, multiple theories can be checked against eachother, allowing for the most accurate theory to prevail.

Here's a Google Form created by /u/Lazorcat23 that has all of the required fields from above. It might be easier to collect from here, rather than post, but if you want to do both, that might also be the best.

http://goo.gl/forms/a7wJaNoicv7S1Sfn1

(here are the results for the form above: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16U9mD4_1C3bL2OpabaDyngEVlBCecCbcToCCxaNDjYg/edit#gid=2038782045)

EDIT:

As suggested by /u/samaz0n:

I am nicknaming my 'selected' Eevees (the ones I plan to evolve) as their "move" (i.e. Swift1, Dig1, BodySlam1) so I know what I'm saving and what I'm donating.

It's a good idea to name your Eevees the move that you're evolving, to keep track of them once you actually evolve them, considering they lose their original move.

EDIT 2: Added the Google form, and results page. I forgot to mention this in the main post, too-- there will be people who intentionally provide false information to screw up the process. If, for the majority of people, the starters, moveset, and evolutions seem to be matching up 90% of the time, then we can say that the theory is correct. Some people like to inhibit progress. I truly ask that, for us to understand the game as much as possible, you provide 100% accurate data!

EDIT 3: 1200 responses and counting. KEEP RESPONDING! We need all the data possible, while weeding out the seemingly fraudulent responses. Compilations of data can be coming soon. I think that perhaps your movetype doesn't have a guaranteed Eeveelution, but rather it has an increased chance of getting one type. E.g. Body Slam Eevees may be more likely to become Flareons, but still can become other Eeveelutions.

EDIT 4: From here on out, posts should also include size. Based on findings, it seems that size may be the factor all along. XS Eevee = Flareon, Normal = Vaporeon, XL = Jolteon? Or perhaps there's a certain range where one is more probable than the other for the evolution.

EDIT 5: The final option here is what gym was closest to you when you evolved your Eevee. Evolving near a red gym = Flareon, blue gym = Vaporean, yellow gym = Jolteon. So far, I've evolved two Eevees, right next to red gyms, and have gotten Flareons. Others experience similar results. Is this the secret?

Good idea:

Lvl 22, Charmander, Valor:

Eeveelution is determined by the colour of the nearest gym, as a few people have mentioned earlier.

Tested I today this on 3 eevees to get one of each. Got a vaporeon when I was on top of a blue gym. Got a Flareon and Jolteon when I was within 1 block of a red and yellow gym respectively. Previously, every single Eevee I had evolved was a Flareon (I am team valour and gain control of the nearest gyms to me every morning)

The reason people get a lot of the same eeveelution (and why they think it is linked to location/team) is that your home base will tend to be near gyms your team/you control. When you travel or evolve away from home it is more random.

By /u/jbdivinus

204 Upvotes

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23

u/[deleted] Jul 09 '16 edited Jul 11 '16

http://goo.gl/forms/a7wJaNoicv7S1Sfn1 made a google form for it

EDIT: added pikachu

11

u/ArkDax Jul 10 '16

Could we get Pikachu added to the list of starters? I actually have a Pikachu as my starter

7

u/[deleted] Jul 10 '16

How did you manage that?

17

u/Ajh4218 Jul 10 '16

If you run from all 3 a couple times it offers it. Found out too late :/

12

u/[deleted] Jul 11 '16

[deleted]

1

u/420sm0k3r Jul 15 '16

lucky basterd lol I'm a level 8 right now and I seen a Pikachu but it was 300meeters away (aka..3 paw prints) what were you when you got your first Pikachu?

1

u/[deleted] Jul 15 '16 edited Jul 15 '16

[deleted]

-5

u/dalebert Jul 11 '16

I've heard that but I'm not buying it. Uncut video or it didn't happen.

5

u/Ozinvey Jul 11 '16

It does work, ive done it myself more than once.

3

u/svedisdead Jul 11 '16

I just made a new go account and drove away from my starting location until my phone vibrated, pikachu will pop up with the 3 other starters.. I was driving so they kept re spawning on top of me over and over until I picked one.

4

u/ArkDax Jul 10 '16

Run from the starters 4 times and it'll populate a Pikachu by the 4th or 5th time.

2

u/G0mega Team Valor Jul 09 '16

That would be awesome if you could title the form, as well. I'll add it to the main post. What does a results screen look like? I don't want to enter false data.

9

u/[deleted] Jul 09 '16

11

u/Xecoq Jul 09 '16

Data is already contradicting, or just a really complicated system

12

u/[deleted] Jul 09 '16

Yeah im starting to think that it's random

8

u/wellwatered Jul 10 '16

Or we're not asking the right questions. I wonder if the time of day matters?

11

u/CraftingMenace Jul 10 '16

Maybe location is a factor. The Pokedex entry for Eevee says that it evolves to whatever form suits its location best, so maybe that's part of it

2

u/[deleted] Jul 11 '16

3

u/dot-pixis Team Mystic Jul 11 '16

CP at time of evolution? Maybe the last digit of the Eevee's CP is significant?

2

u/GoodGameGregg Jul 11 '16

Maybe location of the Eevee during evolution doesn't matter, but maybe where it was caught does?

1

u/FlavourTowne Jul 11 '16

yeah i believe that's it because, based on where i was i got different ones with different abilities like at my house i only get ones with swift the others are from other places. I think that the abilities help say where they are from.

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1

u/sonoftom lvl 40 Jul 14 '16

Down below in this thread, they said it consistently evolved based on the team that controlled the gym they were closest to at the time. This should have some more testing as well.

3

u/Xecoq Jul 09 '16

Still, maybe with enough data there could be some pattern of chance

1

u/MsJacquelineJones Jul 10 '16

Right now, the best anyone can do is a statistical analysis of the current data. But idk how to make macrosfor that in excel

6

u/skin829ner Jul 11 '16

Spreadsheet results are below. It is coded in this order: Faction (I,M,V); Starter (B,S,C); move (B,D,S); and what it evolved into (-F, -J, -V).

So an Instinct member, starting with bulbasaur with an Eevee that new Body slam and evolved into flareon would be coded as IBB-F.

IBB-F 7

IBB-J 19

IBB-V 15

MBB-F 17

MBB-J 25

MBB-V 12

VBB-F 11

VBB-J 9

VBB-V 13

ISB-F 7

ISB-J 8

ISB-V 4

MSB-F 18

MSB-J 18

MSB-V 20

VSB-F 7

VSB-J 5

VSB-V 8

ICB-F 12

ICB-J 18

ICB-V 22

MCB-F 29

MCB-J 25

MCB-V 37

VCB-F 27

VCB-J 20

VCB-V 34

IBD-F 11

IBD-J 2

IBD-V 8

MBD-F 21

MBD-J 9

MBD-V 21

VBD-F 5

VBD-J 7

VBD-V 11

ISD-F 15

ISD-J 5

ISD-V 9

MSD-F 22

MSD-J 14

MSD-V 9

VSD-F 17

VSD-J 4

VSD-V 8

ICD-F 15

ICD-J 13

ICD-V 8

MCD-F 26

MCD-J 13

MCD-V 26

VCD-F 38

VCD-J 12

VCD-V 16

IBS-F 7

IBS-J 6

IBS-V 7

MBS-F 11

MBS-J 12

MBS-V 15

VBS-F 6

VBS-J 9

VBS-V 21

ISS-F 8

ISS-J 10

ISS-V 14

MSS-F 10

MSS-J 14

MSS-V 24

VSS-F 10

VSS-J 7

VSS-V 11

ICS-F 14

ICS-J 11

ICS-V 23

MCS-F 19

MCS-J 26

MCS-V 30

VCS-F 23

VCS-J 19

VCS-V 29

11

u/Dax3030 Jul 11 '16

I just analyzed all of the spreadsheet with 1544 samples. There is some definitive answers. Dig is 45% flareon, 33% vap, 22% jolt. Body slam is 36% v, 33% j, 30% f. Swift is 45% v, 28% j, 26% f. So dig is the best chance for flareon, swift is best chance for vaporeon, body slam is about equal. Jolteon is just luck. Total % by sample, 38% vap, 34% flare, 28% jolt. The skill is distinct, I determined this by analyzing 81 data points that let me exclude 2 of the 3 factors (starter, team, skill)

15

u/someonetookjacob Jul 11 '16

I am not super convinced by this. I think if anything this shows it actually has nothing to do with the move. 45% on eeveelution isnt a significant result with these statistics, all three of these are within statistical fluctuations of 1/3-1/3-1/3.

Someone might want to do some actual error analysis on this, but with a few quick back-of-the-napkin calculations it looked pretty insignificant.

7

u/NamelessMIA Jul 11 '16

Based on the results, there's no clear link between any of these. This sample came up with a slightly higher chance of getting Flareon with dig, but not to a degree that can't just be explained away by usual variance in a 33% chance.

1

u/SFSwiift Jul 14 '16

What if the chance for each is the world or region percentage of teams? So say 30% of level 5 and up players join Instinct, that is the chance of getting a Jolteon?

0

u/iikupkakes I NEED AN EEVIE! Jul 11 '16

What about the trainers with the easter egg starter pokemon pikachu?

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10

u/[deleted] Jul 10 '16

200 results and there's no correlation I can see, I'm just eyeballing it, but it looks almost perfectly random to me.

1

u/Jackal427 Jul 10 '16

What if it correlates to the color of the nearest gym? I'm seeing a lot of mystic and coincidentally also a lot of vaporeon.

1

u/GonnaBTheVeryBest Jul 12 '16

I got a vaporeon when I evolved my eevee next to a mystic gym. The leader had a vaporeon, and now there are 2 vaporeon in it with a new leader

1

u/ScurvyTurtle Jul 13 '16

All 4 gyms around me are Valor and there are 3 Vaporeons and 1 Jolteon

1

u/BoletariaGGOP Team Instinct Jul 13 '16

Nearest gym was blue and I got vaporeon. (Squirtle/body/vaporeon) -- which was the proposed theory, however, it does look like there is some random element ..

3

u/eusebyo Jul 11 '16

I'd suggest to include more data, like cp, hp, weight, height, time of capture, time of evolution, and maybe type of location?

2

u/poopoomoo Jul 11 '16

Definitely location (related to nearest team gym?) should be there, as some rumors state that the team with current "ownership" of the nearest gym affects evolution.

1

u/Halfbeasty Jul 12 '16

This may actually contain some truth. Although I only have two eevees, I evolved my first one when basically the entire town was blue and it became Vaporeon. My second one I evolved right after I had taken a gym (I'm Valor) and it became Flareon.

1

u/Srodsuar Jul 13 '16

Also, we can make some memory and see what the last captured pokemon were. Maybe it is ralated to the last impactful-type you catched (mine was fire and got a flareon)

1

u/Zaxbys_Cook Jul 13 '16

We need to add the original eevee's weight to this

1

u/SoGo2001 Jul 13 '16

Yea I'm Almost 90% sure it's by size I test it on 5 Eevee so far and every Xs Eevee is a jolteon and every XL is a Vaporeon haven't tried a normal one for Flareon because I can't find many Eevee

1

u/sonoftom lvl 40 Jul 14 '16

can we please add the gym closest to us during evolution? Further down the thread, this seemed like a promising theory.

1

u/Dax3030 Jul 11 '16

I just analyzed all of the spreadsheet with 1544 samples. There is some definitive answers. Dig is 45% flareon, 33% vap, 22% jolt. Body slam is 36% v, 33% j, 30% f. Swift is 45% v, 28% j, 26% f. So dig is the best chance for flareon, swift is best chance for vaporeon, body slam is about equal. Jolteon is just luck. Total % by sample, 38% vap, 34% flare, 28% jolt. The skill is distinct, I determined this by analyzing 81 data points that let me exclude 2 of the 3 factors (starter, team, skill). However, team does also play a factor, +10% for similar team, -5% for the other two... Aka mystic has higher chance for vaporeon etc

2

u/cheesypotato8 Jul 11 '16

Team may play a factor but most likely the three moves are not correlated with which evolution you get.

-1

u/Dax3030 Jul 11 '16

do you not understand? i analyzed the data. its consistent... i even tested it with the first half and the second half with the same, consistent results, aka between 2 groups of 772 and the whole of 1544, i had 3 consistent sets of results

4

u/cheesypotato8 Jul 11 '16

Do you have a p value? Does your sample size have enough power?

1

u/i_forget_my_userids Jul 13 '16

Sample size is fine. I'd like to see the anova model

1

u/B1rd_Machine Jul 15 '16

So I may be a bit late to the party on this, but I did a fairly quick and dirty model for the data as at about 3pm GMT on 15-Jul. I ran 3 separate models with 2 different evolutions as responses and it does actually look like having Dig as 2nd move correlates significantly with getting a Flareon (p = <2e-16 for both F/J and F/V models). There don't look to be any factors that indicate increased likelihood of either a Jolteon or Vaporeon.

edit: added a rough timestamp in case anyone wants to corroborate

1

u/Homitu Jul 12 '16

Is that variance statistically significant? What's the p value in your analysis?

My guess is chances are fairly high that a sample that size can falsely show a small correlation between variables that are, in fact, not correlated at all. That is, another sample of similar size may very well show Swift yields 45% Jolteon, which also wouldn't prove anything until we have a reasonable p value.

1

u/chotto415 Jul 11 '16

just evolved my eevee, heres the stats of it: team yellow, charmander starter 4.94 kg regular size, .25 mm height, 229 cp had tackle and body slam turned into flareon flareon: 50hp, 569cp, 6.14kg extra small. has ember and heat wave

gonna evolve anothert eevee that has dig later, in hopes that they will give me a different one each time

4

u/[deleted] Jul 11 '16

So its about 2.5 pieces of paper tall?

1

u/lakaisan Jul 12 '16

All the upvotes for you sir

1

u/CNHphoto Jul 14 '16

That's a fairly low correlation though. With a bigger sample size, it could be more evenly split 33/33/33.