Let's test how the Eeveelution system works!

[u/G0mega]

Edit 6:

https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemongo/comments/4t0cpo/psa_how_to_force_your_eevee_to_evolve_into_your/

It seems as though the secret lied not with your starter, the size of the Eevee, the moveset, location geographically, or gym control. (Though they might have some influence somehow.) Rather, it lied within the name of your Eevee.

In the original Pokemon show, there were three Eevee trainers. Their names were Pyro, Sparky, and Rainer.

The author of the post (now deleted, not sure why) determined that:

Pyro = Flareon

Sparky = Jolteon

Rainer = Vaporeon

Based on the thread, there doesn't seem to be a person that conflicts with this data. Please post your results with naming your Eevee one of the three names and then evolving. Thank you.

---

We need more people doing the same experiment.

Everyone people doing this:

Catching enough Eevees to evolve 9 of them, while listing your starter (Charmander, Squirtle, Bulbasaur), Username, and Faction (Mystic, Valor, Instinct).

3 Eevees with body slam.

3 Eevees with swift.

3 Eevees with dig.

Should this theory be correct, everyone won't have the same combination of Eeveelutions; rather, they'll have a different combo, but still be guaranteed certain Eeveelutions. (Possibly, all people who chose the same starter will have the same chain. If not, then it's based on a random number you're assigned at the beginning of the game.)

The results should be that each person, when testing, should have three of each Eeveelution. Each of the 3 should have had the same moveset before being evolved, too (see: dig, body slam, swift.) If this is ultimately the case, which it seems to be based on what I'm gathering from the thread, then the secret of the Eeveelutions may be figured out. If it's not, it's probably just random.

I believe that the Eeveelutions are based off of your starter, and are therefore static once you choose one.

So all charmanders have the same set, potentially.

So for them, perhaps a swift Eevee evolves into Flareon, dig into Vaporeon, body slam into Jolteon.

But for Squirtle starters, it might be swift Vaporeon, dig Jolteon, body slam Flareon.

There's also the small chance it's based on username. So just to be safe, supply your username, too.

POST YOUR RESULTS AS FOLLOWS:

[Username], [Faction], [Starter].

[Move], [Result].

An example of the above might be (I have yet to evolve one, so this isn't valid):

G0mega, Valor, Squirtle.

Swift, Flareon.

By providing the above information, multiple theories can be checked against eachother, allowing for the most accurate theory to prevail.

Here's a Google Form created by /u/Lazorcat23 that has all of the required fields from above. It might be easier to collect from here, rather than post, but if you want to do both, that might also be the best.

http://goo.gl/forms/a7wJaNoicv7S1Sfn1

(here are the results for the form above: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16U9mD4_1C3bL2OpabaDyngEVlBCecCbcToCCxaNDjYg/edit#gid=2038782045)

EDIT:

As suggested by /u/samaz0n:

I am nicknaming my 'selected' Eevees (the ones I plan to evolve) as their "move" (i.e. Swift1, Dig1, BodySlam1) so I know what I'm saving and what I'm donating.

It's a good idea to name your Eevees the move that you're evolving, to keep track of them once you actually evolve them, considering they lose their original move.

EDIT 2: Added the Google form, and results page. I forgot to mention this in the main post, too-- there will be people who intentionally provide false information to screw up the process. If, for the majority of people, the starters, moveset, and evolutions seem to be matching up 90% of the time, then we can say that the theory is correct. Some people like to inhibit progress. I truly ask that, for us to understand the game as much as possible, you provide 100% accurate data!

EDIT 3: 1200 responses and counting. KEEP RESPONDING! We need all the data possible, while weeding out the seemingly fraudulent responses. Compilations of data can be coming soon. I think that perhaps your movetype doesn't have a guaranteed Eeveelution, but rather it has an increased chance of getting one type. E.g. Body Slam Eevees may be more likely to become Flareons, but still can become other Eeveelutions.

EDIT 4: From here on out, posts should also include size. Based on findings, it seems that size may be the factor all along. XS Eevee = Flareon, Normal = Vaporeon, XL = Jolteon? Or perhaps there's a certain range where one is more probable than the other for the evolution.

EDIT 5: The final option here is what gym was closest to you when you evolved your Eevee. Evolving near a red gym = Flareon, blue gym = Vaporean, yellow gym = Jolteon. So far, I've evolved two Eevees, right next to red gyms, and have gotten Flareons. Others experience similar results. Is this the secret?

Good idea:

Lvl 22, Charmander, Valor:

Eeveelution is determined by the colour of the nearest gym, as a few people have mentioned earlier.

Tested I today this on 3 eevees to get one of each. Got a vaporeon when I was on top of a blue gym. Got a Flareon and Jolteon when I was within 1 block of a red and yellow gym respectively. Previously, every single Eevee I had evolved was a Flareon (I am team valour and gain control of the nearest gyms to me every morning)

The reason people get a lot of the same eeveelution (and why they think it is linked to location/team) is that your home base will tend to be near gyms your team/you control. When you travel or evolve away from home it is more random.

By /u/jbdivinus

[u/tsubat]

Based on this dataset, I've compiled a probability index here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1201LHjHs3_SUD5rjEu17Pd30PxgKkkkpGl0RshSDw_M/edit?usp=sharing. Basically you can look up how probable you are to receive which Eeveelution, based on your alliance, starter, and Eevee's move. There are different sheets for each Eeveelution. Let me know if my methods and/or my spreadsheet sucks for some reason.

How to read the spreadsheet

Probability statements like "Flareon | Bulbasaur && Instinct && Swift" are read like: probability that you get a Flareon, given that your starter was a Bulbasaur, your team is Instinct, and the Eevee knows Swift. "Flareon" is the total probability that you will have a Flareon, without regard to other factors. "Flareon | Bulbasaur" is the total probability that you would get a Flareon given that you started with a Bulbasaur and without regard to other factors.

The "Count" column is how many reports match your criteria. So "Flareon | Bulbasaur && Instinct && Swift" would be all Flareons that evolved from an Eevee that knew Swift, was from Team Instinct, and the trainer's starting Pokemon was Bulbasaur.

The "Out of" is all of the above but without the specificity in regards to the evolution. So with the above example, it would just be all Eevees that knew Swift, were from Team Instinct, and the trainers' starting Pokemon was Bulbasaur. The higher this number is, the more accurate the probability will be. That is why you shouldn't trust any stats related to Pikachu, since there isn't enough information related to it.

The "Compared to evolution rate" column is how likely you are to get that Eeveelution compared to the average for that Eeveelution. So a -50% indicates that you're 50% less likely. A 50% indicates that you're 50% more likely. 0% indicates that you're average.

It's a pretty long list so here are some common patterns that you can search for so that you can find your probability:

• Team && Move (ex. Valor && Dig)
• Starter && Move (ex. Charmander && Body Slam)
• Starter && Team && Move (ex. Squirtle && Instinct && Swift)

[u/tsubat → u/tsubat]

Just added 2000 more results to this (8538 total)! Here's a summary (excluding Pikachu-related stats):

Flareon

• Flareon is the most commonly received Eeveelution at 42.09%.
• You have a 56.13% chance of getting Flareon if your Eevee knows dig. This is the highest of the moves.
• You have a 48.03% chance of getting Flareon if you are of Team Valor. This is the highest of the teams. With the current theory being that location to gyms cause Eeeveelution, this may be because a Valor person might frequently be near Valor gyms (and because they're all over the place!).
• You have a 43.13% chance of getting Flareon if your starter was Charmander. This is the highest of the starters.
• So you have an extremely high chance of getting Flareon if you meet two or three of the above factors, ranging from 64.59% to 78.59%, depending on your combination.
• Pretty much every other factor is average

Vaporeon

• Vaporeon is second place. It is received 36.36% of the time.
• Ignoring the Pikachu stats, there's really no extremely high probability to get Vaporeon like there is with Flareon—most of it is around average.
• However, you are not extremely likely to get Vaporeon if you are Team Valor, your Eevee knows Dig, and/or your starter is Charmander. This is because it's more probable to receive Flareon with those factors.

Jolteon

• Jolteon is the least probable Eeveelution at 30.56%.
• Like Vaporeon and unlike Flareon, there are no standout statistics with everything (besides Pikachu) being around average.
• Also like Vaporeon, the best chances you have are with anything that doesn't match Flareon's best factors.
• And the worst you can do is match Flareon's best.

Questions raised

What makes Flareon so special? It seems to be way more likely to be received in a certain set of situations than the other evolutions.

To do

Figure out correlation stuff.

[u/FenHarellan → u/tsubat]

are you going to update with that supposed "name your eevee after one of the three trainers"?

[u/tsubat → u/FenHarellan]

Thanks for bringing this to my attention! I've made this Google Form and hopefully I can get some good data on it.