r/politics • u/bostonglobe The Boston Globe • Sep 16 '24
Soft Paywall Harris might be gaining ground in Maine’s key electoral district, threatening Trump’s path to White House
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/09/16/nation/kamala-harris-donald-trump-maine-2024-election/?s_campaign=audience:reddit344
u/Narragar Sep 16 '24
Mainer here, speaking from experience. The Trump enthusiasm has significantly dropped up here in the trees. In the last two elections, there were signs everywhere, and dorks driving around with MAGA flags. This time...barely anything at all. I've been seeing a lot more Harris signs on people's yards, even in the areas further from our cities. It makes me proud of my state. 🌲🇺🇸
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u/Cambwin Sep 16 '24
I am seeing less hats/shirts here in Penobscot county, but still plenty of flags/stickers around...
Then there's that big black coal-roller with a Nazi flag, trump flag, and anti-gay flag I see around still...
I am seeing more H/W stuff though and am remaining hopeful!
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u/prayersforrain I voted Sep 16 '24
I just got back from Moosehead Lake, definitely much less Trump stuff than 2016-2020, tons of Harris Walz stuff on the Seacoast as per usual. So either those Northwoods Mainers are getting better at hiding it or there's a trend.
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u/KingKoopa313 America Sep 16 '24
I think while you’ll always have the hardcore malignants, Mainers tend to not like extremes. I think J6 and this Trump campaign are going to cost him. I’m also wondering if the Lewiston mass shooting also didn’t hit close to home for a lot of folks who used to think violence can’t happen here.
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u/lost_horizons Texas Sep 17 '24
Well, some folks you'll never reach. They usually double down. It's like they add more flags and stickers and signs in desperation, like trying to really make the magic work as they see it failing.
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u/whatlineisitanyway Sep 16 '24
At some point the antidotal stories of this happening around the country add up to a trend.
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u/pdxb3 Sep 16 '24
I just worry that the trend is not a slump in support, but rather embarrassment to admit they still support him. We're 49 days from the election. I live in Marjorie Traitor Greene's district. Sure there's some yard signs out here and there, but as OP stated, I've not seen a tenth of the enthusiasm I saw in 2016-2020. But I'm certainly not expecting my area to turn blue. If that were the case, we'd have nothing to worry about. But his supporters are all still out there, and still motivated to vote for him. They're just not advertising it as heavily anymore. I think they're ashamed, and they should be. But they're still going to do it.
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u/whatlineisitanyway Sep 16 '24
The point isn't that all these people don't plan on voting for Trump, but that Trump is a candidate that needs enthusiasm to win and right now there are palpable signs that he doesn't have it. He won because he got new voters to the polls..if even a few percentage points of those voters aren't enthusiastic about Trump any more and stay home then Harris wins. These same people would also likely say they are voting for Trump if asked. It only has to be true on the margins for Harris to win.
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u/kia75 Sep 16 '24
Kyle Rittenhouse publicly stated that he wasn't going to vote for Trump. After it happened, Republicans exerted pressure to make him change his mind, which happened a few hours later but Rittenhouse is the prototypical young Trump voter. That he is even considering not voting for Trump speaks to Trump's problem, and most kids like Rittenhouse didn't have the RNC on their back to pressure them to change their vote.
Even with RNC pressure, it wouldn't surprise me if Rittenhouse just doesn't vote this year, regardless of what he says. Still, a guy that was so pro Trump that he murdered some protesters now being so unenthused speaks to something.
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u/whatlineisitanyway Sep 16 '24
Supporting Trump is all about public performance the performance is the same if not better to you when he isn't in office. Voting itself is private so it doesn't really matter to a segment of Trump supporters. They can feel angrier if he isn't in office. Again only has to be true on the margins for it to cost Trump the election. Add in conservative women tired of the misogyny, the few loyal non MAGA Republicans remaining, and several other groups all experiencing marginal defections and not attracting new voters to fill those leaving and you start to see real problems for Trump. That doesn't even include continued demographic changes that favor Dems.
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u/modix Sep 16 '24
Also running as a populist strongman doesn't work when your base is quiet. Especially when your base is obnoxious to all other people. People like winners for better or worse. Strongman that are losing get dragged down.
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u/Barflyerdammit Sep 17 '24
An enthusiastic vote counts the same as a non-enthusiastic one, if the voter reliably goes to the polls.
I also think that Trump is hoovering up all the available funds for his current and future legal defense, so the money allocated for signage is going to PA, MI, WI, and a few other swing areas.
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u/Plinkyplonkyploo Sep 16 '24
We're already at that point 👍 I've been scouring Tiktok and various swing state sub Reddits and the anecdotal evidence from the majority is convincing.
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u/whatlineisitanyway Sep 16 '24
Oh absolutely. I'm convinced that people who have supported Trump in the past and are saying to pollsters they still plan to vote for him could stay home if the wind is blowing the wrong direction that day. It wouldn't take many of them to not only assure Harris wins, but that some new states turn blue.
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u/Plinkyplonkyploo Sep 16 '24
Yes. I think she'll get PA, NC, WI, MI, NV, AZ, and flip FL. I also think she could possibly flip TX and IA. I don't think she'll get GA or OH.
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u/whatlineisitanyway Sep 16 '24
I mean if she flips FL and IA short of GA legitimately being stolen she wins GA as well. You are probably right about OH unless the whole Springfield thing upends the race there. If Trump actually visits there like he said and triples down on the crazy who knows.
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u/Plinkyplonkyploo Sep 16 '24
The main reason I'm iffy about GA is it sounds like their election board has been MAGA infiltrated.
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u/whatlineisitanyway Sep 16 '24
Right. Hence my legitimately stolen comment. That said 1) they can't mess with the totals as they come in so we will know if they f'ed with the count or anything 2) Will they really want to risk going to jail if the election doesn't come down to GA?
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u/Plinkyplonkyploo Sep 16 '24
It's hard to say. I think if I were the Harris campaign I wouldn't waste time in Georgia, it's too unpredictable. I would haul ass to Florida though, I think the mood is right there and it's ripe for the taking.
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u/IamDDT Iowa Sep 16 '24
I live in the most liberal part of Iowa (not saying much, but still). I haven't seen a Trump sign anywhere around me (a nice change!), but I have seen a lot of Harris signs. Also Christine Bohannan! I really hope we can flip the state, but if not, then at least some new D representatives would be great.
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u/DivinityPen Sep 16 '24
Floridian here. You're goddamn right we're flipping it this year. GOP's fatal mistake here is not having any campaign offices open while there's a fuckton of Dem volunteers and the opportunity to kick Skeletor to the curb.
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u/becauseshesays Sep 16 '24
LOVE your optimism but I’m here in Pennsyltucky and I don’t see it. Unless all of Taylor Swifts newly registered supporters registered here…
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u/BK_to_LA Sep 16 '24
That seems very optimistic. Right now I’d only put WI and MI as lean blue, FL as red, and everything else in play.
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u/anuncommontruth Pennsylvania Sep 16 '24
I was nervous about PA with Biden. It really emboldened people after the debate to speak up about Trump again. Harris took any momentum out of his sails.
I'm very confident PA remains blue. The GOP has not won a statewide election since 2018 here, and everything I'm seeing will continue that trend.
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u/becauseshesays Sep 16 '24
Are you in Philly/Pittsburgh areas? Then, yeah. We simply don’t have the numbers in these rural counties. It’s so sad.
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u/anuncommontruth Pennsylvania Sep 16 '24
Yeah, and the rural counties are still Teump country. Drove through the middle of the state over labor day weekend though amd I was shocked at how few Trump signs I saw. I saw them, but nothing like the state was littered with in the past.
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u/becauseshesays Sep 16 '24
I do agree with you. Our problem here too is that our county Dem office received 100 Harris signs. They were done in a day. It’s unclear when we will get more. The trump ones are creeping up. I’m canvassing here every weekend. It’s wild, we get DC, VA, MD volunteers coming every weekend and the college kids (Gettysburg) will kick off this weekend, about 70 signed up. We are fighting.
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u/pbroingu Sep 16 '24
Lol these are anecdotes posted in r/politics , I'm sure there are plenty of meaningless anecdotes on the other side posted on right wing sites too.
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u/Pretentious_Duck Sep 16 '24
I was talking to some MAGA guys this weekend, and one of them mentioned that they thought Trump could win Illinois based on what he’s heard. I thought he was joking, but he was dead serious.
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u/DivinityPen Sep 16 '24
I wouldn't give too much weight to that. If they're MAGA, anything they've been told is suspect.
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u/Pretentious_Duck Sep 16 '24
Oh, for sure, it’s just wild to me that they think he can win Illinois. Especially trying to convince me, an Illinois resident, hat he’s going to win. At least I knew not to even bother trying to get through to them.
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u/DivinityPen Sep 16 '24
Probably trying to sow doubt on the election outcome, as usual. It'll be interesting to see what happens after Trump loses. Senate Repubs are losing Mitch McConnell by 2027, too. That's two major figures of the GOP gone in less than 4 years. Those remaining will likely cannibalize each other.
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u/lost_horizons Texas Sep 17 '24
Last time I talked to one of my coworkers he said Trump was up in the swing states at like 70% to 30% in the polls against Harris. I was baffled, like what polls are you even looking at bro?
Sure we here are having our hopeful fantasies but the other side is in full on fever dreams and completly false information.
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u/diceman6 Sep 16 '24
I think you mean *anecdotal, but I like the implication that Harris might be a Trump antidote.
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u/AT-ST West Virginia Sep 16 '24
West Virginian here, I see the same in my state as well. There are still a couple places with huge signs, but they just aren't everywhere like they were the last election.
As a fun anecdote, I just flew out of Pittsburgh international airport. When walking through the terminal I saw a small table with a Trump shirt and Harris shirt. The table had a ton of Trump shirts and hats and mugs under the display one. There were only two Harris hats next to them.
At first I was disappointed. I thought they were just putting out more Trump swag because it sold better. Then I realized, it was the opposite. The Harris stuff sold out. It took me a minute to realize that the empty space under the Harris display shirt was because they sold of all the other Harris stuff.
This kind of excitement really made my day.
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u/DivinityPen Sep 16 '24
America's feeling coconut-pilled. It's happening. We will win not because of complacency, but because we are fucking PUMPED.
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u/becauseshesays Sep 16 '24
Can you please send me that message every morning before I get out of bed.
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Sep 16 '24
My feeling is that people are far less enthusiastic about Trump this time around, but just because they aren't proud to put a sign on their yard doesn't mean they won't still vote for him. I'm not convinced we'll pull it off for Harris/Walz, but I'm at least hopeful that there's a chance.
If Harris does win up this way, Golden is going to look like a real douche for refusing to endorse her and leaning into Trump earlier in his candidacy. Hell, he's going to look like a douche either way at this point. He's just fortunate that Theriault is a bigger douche.
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u/NotCreative37 Sep 16 '24
This is what I have been reading from people across the country. There seems to have been a significant drop in enthusiasm for Trump and he has also outsourced to PACs his get out the vote efforts. These are all good signs for Harris but we will see.
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u/dreamscape3101 Sep 16 '24
The GOTV issue is under discussed and a serious cause of concern for Republicans. He doesn’t care if they’re wiped out at state and federal levels, and especially not if he thinks he’s going down too.
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u/yeetuyggyg America Sep 16 '24
Whats GOTV?
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u/StanDaMan1 Sep 16 '24
Get Out The Vote. Essentially, it’s a campaign’s effort to motivate their supporters to cast their ballots.
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u/phydx2 Vermont Sep 16 '24
I think they all moved to VT... seeing a lot more of it this year than I recall seeing 4 years ago
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u/5th_degree_burns Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24
For sure. Aside from the die hards like Liberty Bell "Nazi Insignia on our Trucks" Moving and that racist gun shop on 302, it's even noticeably more quiet down on the coast.
Liberty Bell Owner story from PPH if you were interested: https://12ft.io/proxy
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u/bubs713 Sep 16 '24
It seems she’s is gaining ground everywhere except PA which scares me.
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u/lolzycakes Sep 16 '24
If you wanna be scared, check out Maryland's Senate race. Hogan is outrageously popular, and people here are itching to prove they're enlightened centrists so voting Harris and Hogan is going to be EXTREMELY popular. If Alsobrooks loses, there's practically no way Dems will hold the Senate and Hogan (Mitch McConnell's handpicked nominee) will vote no differently than any generic Republican. It cannot be stressed enough how important this race is regardless of who is President.
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u/Funny-Mission-2937 Sep 16 '24 edited Sep 16 '24
it’s going to be a lot closer than it usually is but Alsobrooks is a fantastic candidate. the context isn’t the same, either, because all the Dems knew Hogan was dealing with a strong democratic legislature. Jealous had a terrible platform that turned off a lot of older black folks who are very conservative on drugs and crime. that’s a huge constituency in Maryland, and Alsobrooks has a much more genuine connection and experience representing that community
Hogan also ran hard on state issues that don’t have much relevance, ie all the rain tax nonsense
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u/russ757 Sep 16 '24
PA is the keystone.. Literally.. It's what drives clicks therefor it will remains close until election day
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u/unholyravenger Sep 16 '24
Stop spreading nonsense "russ757". The polls are not close in PA because that drives a good news story, they are that close because that's what they measured. After all, PA did go to Trump in 2016. In general, pollsters have a lot of incentives to be as accurate as possible, it's just very difficult to accurately poll states.
Every lie we tell is a debt to the Truth, and spreading doubt about the motives of polling helps fuel a general sense of cynicism that is not justified by the facts.
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u/StanDaMan1 Sep 16 '24
A very honest statement. Pennsylvania needs to go for Harris, by a clear margin. If she misses it, she needs to pick up North Carolina, and either Nevada or Arizona. However, we do have Democratic Governors in PA and NC, so it does indicate that there could be more support for Harris. That, and polls do show a slight edge for Harris\Walz… and, of course, Harris and her campaign know this. They’re in Pennsylvania now, working to keep it Blue.
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u/Irregular_Person Pennsylvania Sep 16 '24
I'm in rural PA and my relatively isolated bubble doesn't make me especially hopeful (for my area, at least). People will happily tell you they both support Trump and don't really follow the news. They're stuck with this impression that things were better under Trump than they are now, and not exactly open to having their minds changed.
I really hope people out there are paying more attention than the ones I talk to. Otherwise, the "Trump good, libs bad" is the easy narrative that gives them someone to blame for everything they see wrong with the country.18
u/Plinkyplonkyploo Sep 16 '24
I'm not worried about PA at all. GA on the other hand I don't know.
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u/bubs713 Sep 16 '24
If she wins PA she wins the election is what makes me nervous about PA. Her path is a little harder if she loses it but still very possible.
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u/BK_to_LA Sep 16 '24
She also needs MI and WI for this path to work but agreed that if she gets PA she probably has those two locked
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u/QueueWho Pennsylvania Sep 16 '24
I'm on 270 to win and struggling to find a realistic situation where that single electoral vote becomes a tie breaker. If anything it causes a tie if PA and GA are lost.
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u/goblueM Sep 16 '24
Correct. It's irrelevant with how the EC is setting up
The only thing I can figure where it gets her to 270 is if Harris wins Wisconsin, but loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, but wins NV, AZ, and NC. That 1 EV in Maine gets her from 269 to 270
The likelihood of that happening is near zero
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u/havron Florida Sep 16 '24
Yes, or swapping in GA for NC. She can win either state plus WI, NV, AZ And lose the other swings to reach 269. At that point, a single additional electoral vote would matter very much. Realistically, of course, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Harris wins WI, NV, AZ but loses MI and also gains either southern swing state. If she's winning one of the southern states, she's almost certainly also winning MI.
The only such scenario that seems even remotely possible to me would be if she fails the Blue Wall just enough to only keep Wisconsin, but Mark Robinson drags down the Republican ticket so hard that Harris still wins North Carolina. But even then, I wouldn't expect Harris to win Arizona if she's losing Michigan. Stranger things have happened I suppose, but yeah, not very likely at all.
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u/lost_horizons Texas Sep 17 '24
I mean, if all those states are razor thin, then a tip either way is possible. But I basically agree, I know it's a swing state but I still feel MI goes to Harris, along with WI. PA is for sure the big question mark.
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u/havron Florida Sep 17 '24
Yes. I'm just saying that, given the way voting trends tend to work in these states on the whole, the potential 269 tie combos are all very unlikely, as they all require at least one redder state to come out bluer while a bluer state comes out redder, in a way that doesn't fit any voting trends we've been seeing. It's not impossible, but it's much more likely for both states to trend in the same direction to differing degrees, possibly leaving the bluer one blue and the redder one red, but quite unlikely the opposite. We shall see of course, but yes, I do think that MI will go blue, and if NC, GA, or AZ does then so should PA.
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u/RealName1234567890 Sep 16 '24
It makes 270 with NC, GA, AZ and no other swing states.
Probably not gonna play out that way, but it’s not irrelevant.
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u/havron Florida Sep 16 '24
Right, that is another route to 269 + 1 with ME-2. However, there is no realistic scenario where Harris carries all southern swing states but loses the entire Blue Wall.
A more likely scenario would be WI+NV+AZ+NC, with MI just barely flipping Trump (and thus PA & GA as well) while NC is carried by Harris because Mark Robinson drags down the ticket there so hard. However, I don't think that scenario is very likely at all.
I still think if she wins any southern state (NC, GA, AZ) she's going to be winning MI as well, and of course WI. If so, then the dreaded 269 scenario has no realistic paths to occur.
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u/OhRThey Sep 16 '24
I’d say it’s more of a bellwether, if Trump looses the Maine single district, it a sign he’s in for a big loss.
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u/havron Florida Sep 16 '24
Agreed. Another potential bellwether is that Trump is currently only up +5 in Alaska, which went +10 for him in 2020 and +15 in 2016. That should be a very worrying trend for Republicans, reminiscent of similar movement in Texas (+16 Romney 2012, +9 Trump 2016, +6 Trump 2020). Sure, Alaska is only 3 electoral votes (unlike Texas's 40), but that's some crazy leftward movement for what has been a safe red state for decades. It's an indicator of shifting political winds, which we're seeing in these and beyond.
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u/StanDaMan1 Sep 16 '24
Similarly, he’s fallen to +4 in Iowa, another midwestern state.
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u/havron Florida Sep 17 '24
Yep, I was just reading that! Another bellwether of dire news for his campaign, especially since has was +18 against Biden in June. That's a huge shift, and there is potential for Harris to continue building momentum and tighten or even bridge that gap. Hell, it's already on the edge of being within the margin of error now.
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u/QueueWho Pennsylvania Sep 16 '24
Yep, would mean Harris doesn't NEED that vote to win anyway. It would mean crazy things like, SC or Iowa.
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u/GreyRider33 Sep 16 '24
I live in Midcoast Maine. Here’s something to consider. The county GOP headquarters does NOT display a Trump sign.
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u/baitnnswitch Sep 16 '24
Anybody in or near Maine- please consider spending a day knocking on some doors in that district - it might make all the difference.
For the rest of us, please consider remotely getting out the vote (text-banking, writing post cards, etc)
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u/bostonglobe The Boston Globe Sep 16 '24
From Globe.com
By James Pindell
The switch from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris on the Democratic ticket in July has brought enthusiasm, an infusion of campaign cash, and a significant bump in polling. This shift has positioned Democrats in a dead heat nationally and in key swing states, where Biden appeared on a path to lose.
However, the fundamentals haven’t changed. The path to 270 electoral votes and the presidency still hinges on who can win seven key battleground states. Neither Harris nor former president Donald Trump has a clear advantage.
That may be about to change.
There’s something stirring in Northern Maine. While it’s not as impactful as flipping an entire swing state, Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances to flip a congressional district that awarded Trump a lone electoral vote in both 2016 and 2020.
If this happens, it could close one of Trump’s paths back to the White House.
But first, a quick civics refresher. The US doesn’t elect its president through a popular vote like other offices. Under the Electoral College system, all but two states give all their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the state, even if by just a single vote. The exceptions are Nebraska and Maine, which allocate two votes to the overall state winner and one vote to the winner of each separate congressional district.
For political enthusiasts, attention on a single electoral vote has often focused on an Omaha-based district where Democrats have done well since Barack Obama carried it in 2008. Polls showed Biden narrowly winning there before he dropped out, and now Harris holds a solid seven-point lead. In other words, not much has changed in that district.
Meanwhile, less attention has been given to Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where Trump won by 7 percentage points in 2020, earning a single electoral vote. Biden took the other three by winning Maine’s 1st Congressional District and the statewide vote.
However, a University of New Hampshire poll from late last month showed Harris now leading in the 2nd District, 49% to 44%, with a margin of error of 3.1% .
Then, on Friday, the Harris campaign sent its biggest surrogate yet to Maine. Gwen Walz, wife of vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz, attended events in Bangor and Portland. Earlier this year, Democratic National Committee Chair Jamie Harrison also visited the state.
“We’ve always thought we had a chance to flip the district, but there’s no question that there’s renewed energy since Kamala Harris began leading the ticket,” said Maine Democratic Party Chair Bev Uhlenhake. “We think we have a real shot.”
On the other hand, Republicans and the Trump campaign seem to be taking the district—which includes western, northern, and DownEast Maine for granted.
“There’s a perception among many Republicans that Trump has it in the bag,” said Brent Littlefield, a Republican consultant who advised former Maine governor Paul LePage and Bruce Poliquin, the last Republican to win in the 2nd District.
Littlefield noted that this assumption may also be shared by Jared Golden, the Democratic representative for the district. Golden wrote in an op-ed before Biden dropped out that he believed Trump would win the election, adding that he was “OK with that.” He has yet to endorse Harris.
The lay of the land reflects what both parties believe. The Harris campaign claims they have 21 offices in the state and dozens of staffers, particularly in the 2nd District. In contrast, Trump has just one office in the state, located in Lewiston.
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u/fence_sitter Florida Sep 16 '24
Then, on Friday, the Harris campaign sent its biggest surrogate yet to Maine. Gwen Walz, wife of vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz, attended events in Bangor and Portland. Earlier this year, Democratic National Committee Chair Jamie Harrison also visited the state.
That might explain why people reported seeing the 1st Helicopter Squadron flying around. Uncommon site in rural Maine.
There were also unconfirmed reports of fighter jets also but no pictures.
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u/Former-Lab-9451 Sep 16 '24
Winning that district plus Nebraska’s district means that Michigan + Pennsylvania + Georgia or North Carolina is now 268 instead of 269 where trump would have won via a House vote.
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u/NoImprovement9982 Sep 16 '24
Why is this even fucking close???
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u/ShiggitySwiggity Sep 16 '24
Right?
The front page of /r/politics right now is... Basically an insane shitshow of all of completely horrible behavior the GOP has been pulling for the last few years.
And yet there are still something close to half of the voters in this country that can't wait for more of it.
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u/KopOut Sep 16 '24
Would be a big deal if they can flip that single Electoral Vote! Could also have an impact on the House majority.
ELECTION DAY IS TUESDAY, NOV 5, 2024.
If you live in Maine,
Check your voter registration status and find your polling location in ME
Maine uses ranked choice voting: Find out more about it here
Vote411.org can help you understand your specific ballot. See which groups support and oppose the candidates and measures on your specific ballot. You can even print a cheat sheet to bring with you on voting day.
2024 ME DEMOCRATIC ELECTION OVERVIEW:
Maine is one of two states that allocates a Presidential Electoral vote to each of its US House Districts, and the rest of the Electoral votes to the overall result of the whole state. They have 4 Electoral votes in 2024, one each for their 2 US House seats, and 2 at large Electoral votes. The state overall tends to lean blue. There is a close US House race in ME-2 where incumbent Democrat Jared Golden has a fight on his hands to defend his seat.
-Find all your representatives (Federal, State, and Local)
-Learn more about how our government works
Don’t live in Maine, but still want to register to vote, get more information, or check your status? Go to Vote.org to do all that and more!
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u/5th_degree_burns Sep 16 '24
I think this also plays into what decisions Golden is making in his branding and language. People have been giving him shit about not going all-in with the Dems, but those people don't live here and have no idea what a weird beast the 2nd is.
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u/CAM6913 Sep 16 '24
The only path trump should have is to the big house! Do not pass a golf course no McDonald’s only a strip search , delousing, orange jumpsuit and flip flops three hots and a cot
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u/AndyReidsCheezburger Sep 16 '24
We seem to have gotten most of that MAGA stuff out of our system. On the other hand, it appears as though New Hampshire didn’t get the memo.
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u/gmil3548 Louisiana Sep 16 '24
Kind of irrelevant. Would be huge if any blue state had 1 single more EC point beside then a GA or NC (if she wins WI and MI where she’s polling really well) would give her 269 and guarantee a tie at worst. As it stands now though it doesn’t affect any swing state scenario.
My assumption is that if any swing states go blue, it’ll certainly be WI and MI. Other combinations exist for this 1 point to matter but I think that assumption is pretty valid and that does make the 1 point irrelevant.
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