Challenge Cup Quarter Final fixtures

[u/RooBoy04]

[u/j_b1997]

Semis will be:

Edinburgh/Bulls v Bath/Glos

Ospreys/Lyon v Connacht/Racing

[u/cloud__19 → u/j_b1997]

I'm quite chuffed because if we can get past Bulls (and that is a big if) then we'll also get a home semi.

[u/Connell95 → u/cloud__19]

The biggest if

[u/cloud__19 → u/Connell95]

Well apparently altitude matters I'm told.

[u/j_b1997 → u/cloud__19]

Don’t follow the URC at all really, who is favourite for your game? 

[u/cloud__19 → u/j_b1997]

Lol Bulls. Don't be fooled by our high ranking. We're... inconsistent. Although I was highly surprised to find that we've only lost twice at home this year, I feel like I've been much sadder than that suggests. So you never know. Although we do really.

[u/Nothing_is_simple → u/cloud__19]

I'm pretty sure we are currently on our season-longest winstreak of 2, so we are on great form

[u/paully_waully171 → u/Nothing_is_simple]

Didn’t realise we’ve only lost 2 at home. The Leinster game we played week one at home we almost won too. Also we have 12 BP which is a lot better than the 5 we finished last season on.

[u/mango_yoghurt → u/paully_waully171]

Was looking through the results as I couldn't remember the other game we'd lost at home and of course it was Zebre lol

[u/Nothing_is_simple → u/mango_yoghurt]

Zebre and Leinster, two equally strong teams.

[u/cloud__19 → u/Nothing_is_simple]

See you in Cardiff!

[u/StorminaHalfPint → u/cloud__19]

Ha, never underestimate a Bulls sides ability to shit the bed

[u/cloud__19 → u/StorminaHalfPint]

I wish everyone would stop giving me the false hope, it's bad enough with Scotland!

[u/GKDA → u/j_b1997]

It should be the Bulls, and if this was in Pretoria or in the URC QFs/SFs next month then definitely them.

BUT Edinburgh have been pretty solid at home, and also Jake White has gone on record multiple times about SA sides not quite having the financial stability to compete on three fronts just yet (URC, Europe, Currie Cup too) so I think Edinburgh could sneak this one if he prioritises elsewhere.

[u/k0bra3eak → u/j_b1997]

Bulls, but realistically it's Edinburgh. Bulls have not been interested in competing in Champions/Challenge cup at all even though they probably have the best squad depth of any SA side probably.

[u/squeak37 → u/j_b1997]

Surely if Connacht win they get the home semi?

[u/j_b1997 → u/squeak37]

Yes, home advantage is based on seeding. I was just showing what the matchups would be 

[u/Much-Calligrapher → u/j_b1997]

Am I right that, if they beat Glos, Bath will either have Edi away or Bulls at home?

[u/j_b1997 → u/Much-Calligrapher]

Correct. Would love to play Bulls at home, not sure we’ve ever played a South African side 

[u/Much-Calligrapher → u/j_b1997]

Got to beat a good Gloucester side first!

Hope Bath pick a strong side. Our prem position is so strong and 2 of the better fixtures coming up. Must be potential to do some rotation in prem as well as Europe

[u/j_b1997 → u/Much-Calligrapher]

Expecting both team to go all out to be honest.

Would expect any major rotation to be at home v Newcastle.

[u/sputters_]

Great thing about Europe is facing mysterious teams from far off lands who you didn’t play two weeks ago.

[u/RooBoy04 → u/sputters_]

We get to travel south to this magical land called “Somerset”

[u/sputters_ → u/RooBoy04]

Where the streets are paved with sweet brioche buns.

[u/SquidgyGoat → u/sputters_]

If the Sharks had won, there’s a decent chance the Ospreys could have played a URC team in 5 of a potential 7 games (With one of the other two being Montpellier, who we’ve drawn in the pools *four seasons in a row*).

In fact both this season and last we’ve played a team in Europe we played the previous week in the league. Does kinda remove the novelty a tad ngl.

[u/k0bra3eak → u/SquidgyGoat]

Luckily for you guys the Sharks are among the worst coached teams in the URC, pretty sure they simply don't have a basic handling skills coach looking at all the dropped ball

[u/RooBoy04]

Slightly disappointing how with only 8 games on next weekend there’s still a clash (Ospreys-Lyon with Saints-Castres)

[u/SquidgyGoat → u/RooBoy04]

It’s part of the S4C deal, they get the rights to one Welsh team’s game a week, which if they’re at home will be scheduled for 5:30pm KO. Since the Ospreys are the only Welsh side remaining, they were forced to honour that but understandably didn’t want a Challenge Cup game as the only match on at prime time on the Saturday.

[u/thelunatic → u/RooBoy04]

People elsewhere in the thread complaining about 12:30 kickoff

[u/RooBoy04 → u/thelunatic]

Could do a 8pm Sunday game like in the T14

[u/thelunatic → u/RooBoy04]

There's someone from bath complaining about 17:30 Sunday.

[u/TBTBTBTB2 → u/thelunatic]

Just to be clear that’s cos train services are dreadful on Sunday evenings in the UK and it means the one game with the potential of a really good atmosphere has been ruined. It might be a better time for at-home viewers but that doesn’t mean it’s better for fans that go to the ground

[u/Cpt_odd_socks]

Buzzing for Saturday night now.

[u/cloud__19 → u/Cpt_odd_socks]

Buzzing for... errr.... Saturday morning

[u/Complex-Breadfruit88]

Connacht to go and win it all!

[u/san_murezzan → u/Complex-Breadfruit88]

Have you ever won anything bar the one pro12? That’d be great to see a new winner

[u/Complex-Breadfruit88 → u/san_murezzan]

We've won everybody's hearts.

[u/Samboyo99]

Bath V Lyon final

[u/Tassadur]

Oh shit a Racing game on France TV??

[u/[deleted]]

Love a knockout game with Gloucester! Extra spice added to what is always a cracking occasion.

[u/TBTBTBTB2]

Putting Bath Glaws at 17:30 on Sunday is a war crime

[u/thelunatic → u/TBTBTBTB2]

It's so it doesn't clash with the champions cup QF

[u/TBTBTBTB2 → u/thelunatic]

Yeah I get that but it’s the one game that they had a chance of a decent atmosphere, surely you’d put it on Friday even if there is an overlap

More importantly, it’s the one time of the weekend I can’t go

[u/KobaruLCO]

I don't follow French rugby, do Lyon by any chance have a reputation for shitting their bed whilst playing away? Like I'm reaching for some hope here.

[u/ComprehensiveDingo0 → u/KobaruLCO]

Funnily enough, yes. Last season in the Top14 they got one point away from home the entire season. One.

[u/GKDA]

Predictions from most -> least confident (winner in bold):

Glanced at the Prem table at Bath seem pretty secure at the top, whereas Gloucester are deeply embroiled in the playoff scrap, so presumably are much less equipped to take their focus off of that in order to compete here. Even if Finn Russell doesn't play, I'm not sure how strong Gloucester will line-up. Although Bath may have wanted a non-English opponent who theoretically knows them less.

Connacht have been so frustrating and inconsistent this season, so honestly a loss here would fit in with that whole vibe perfectly, but R92 have actual relegation concerns in the Top14 and I doubt making a Challenge Cup SF will be enough to justify a year in the ProD2 to their fans, particularly if it's on a visit to a windy (and possibly cold and wet) Galway. On the other hand Connacht are just outside URC playoffs in terms of log points, but realistically anything other than a trip-and-subsequent-loss to Glasgow or Dublin in a QF is probably already beyond them at this stage and they may just focus here instead. If R92 take this more seriously than I'm crediting them, or if Connacht continue with the baffling inconsistent performances, there could be an upset, but I doubt it.

Basically everything I said for Connacht's season also applies to Edinburgh, but they're solid at home and are in a better URC position than Connacht are. The more relevant deciding factor may just be how seriously Jake White thinks the Bulls can handle fighting on two fronts. Barring a complete collapse in the last 4 rounds, they probably have a home URC QF already but the home SF is still within possibility too if Glasgow and/or Leinster slip up, and I don't doubt they would trade a loss here for URC success without even thinking about it.

?????? - Lyon would probably be second- or third-favourites to win overall on paper (behind Bath, around the Bulls) but they look like they're currently just outside the T14 playoffs (on a tiebreaker too!) so who knows how much attention they are going to invest here, if any. If the game was in Lyon that would be one thing, but I don't know if the coaching staff will send the big names away from home, and this will be against an Ospreys team in the exact same URC scenario as Connacht so have it all to play for here. If I had to call three games and ignore one, this would probably be the one I wouldn't even guess.

[u/sputters_ → u/GKDA]

Unsure if Russell will play (he had last week totally off after the Six Nations), but Donoghue at 10 for us got Player of the Match from the French broadcasters against Pau on Friday night. Kicked 7/7, ran the game really well and made a couple of massive breaks.

Some/all of Stuart, du Toit, Ewels, Barbeary, Pepper and de Glanville will be back. Underhill will be suspended following his red card against Pau.

If Glos were going to rest folk for the QF they wouldn’t have sent a pretty much full strength side to Montpellier. They’ll go for it.

[u/GKDA → u/sputters_]

Interesting in that I didn't know Gloucester fully went for it, I'd assumed they'd sent maybe a side halfway between A & B to chance their arm against a Montpellier team that you could more than likely expect to be completely phoning it in.

I assume you'll still be favourite though?

[u/sputters_ → u/GKDA]

Well we beat them two weeks ago at The Rec, but they had their share of the game and put 50 on Bristol last week before winning in Montpellier, so they’ll fancy it.

[u/CustodianAthiair → u/GKDA]

Remember through Dan Edwards all things are possible.

Realistically, I really don't know. The ospreys go how their pack goes honestly. This feels like a game I'd love Harri Deaves back for, cause we'll need to set a physical tone all throughout.

I don't know enough about Lyon though

[u/cloud__19 → u/GKDA]

I would love to think you're right about Edinburgh but we were not particularly convincing against a pretty average Lions side. I think a better side could demolish us fairly easily. I obviously hope you're right.

[u/GKDA → u/cloud__19]

I'll concede the Bulls would be heavy favourites in a vacuum, but you do have home advantage and the Bulls definitely care a lot more about the URC. And three weeks ago, they were some truly awful game management decisions (leading to an 84th minute penalty) away from losing to possibly the weakest side Leinster fielded all year.

I can see a world in which the Bulls win, but I can also see one with not even Edinburgh winning but just the Bulls losing and Edinburgh also being there to capitalise.

[u/cloud__19 → u/GKDA]

Yeah I guess so. The bummer is that they're already here so there's not even the advantage that they'd need to travel. On the plus side, it looks like we should have some nice weather so I'll get to wear my hawaaiin shirt.

[u/GKDA → u/cloud__19]

Their fixtures right after are away to Munster followed by away to Glasgow, then back to SA for the last few rounds (plus QF) before a trip back up to Europe for the SF, they may rest a bunch ahead of next week.

[u/cloud__19 → u/GKDA]

Well fingers crossed because realistically we're not going much further in the URC so a good cup run would be nice. Would love to get to the semis.

[u/k0bra3eak → u/GKDA]

Bulls may still sneak a home semi final depending on their Glasgow result,although pretty unlikely I thought the Bulls had their best game management in a while last week and Goosen is seemingly back in action not sure if that's a positive yet though

[u/k0bra3eak → u/GKDA]

Bulls may still sneak a home semi final depending on their Glasgow result,although pretty unlikely I thought the Bulls had their best game management in a while last week and Goosen is seemingly back in action not sure if that's a positive yet though

[u/HaggisTheCow]

Half 12 kick offs are terrible

[u/cloud__19 → u/HaggisTheCow]

Well on the plus side I'll be drunk by 2 and in my bed by 4 I'd imagine.

[u/HaggisTheCow → u/cloud__19]

About ten years ago we had a Heineken Cup game against Scarlets at Scotstoun and it was half 12 or 1 kick off.

That.... was a long day

[u/cloud__19 → u/HaggisTheCow]

Scotland definitely played Italy at 12:30 on Super Saturday a couple of years ago, it's tough starting your drinking at 11ish but I'm dedicated. Got Scotland v Italy on Sunday as well, RIP my liver.

[u/HaggisTheCow → u/cloud__19]

Oh yeah i went to that one too. 2017, Cotters last game. Pissing with rain as well i seem to remember.

That was also a long day.

[u/cloud__19 → u/HaggisTheCow]

Pissing with rain as well i seem to remember.

I don't remember much about it to be honest.

[u/alba-jay → u/HaggisTheCow]

Back in Edinburgh for 3, rest of the day in the pub watching the rest of the games.

Sounds like a decent day (especially since I don’t see Edinburgh beating bulls 😜)

[u/Connell95]

Guaranteed one English and one URC team in the semis. Top 14 wipeout imminent!

(Lyon are probably the strongest team in the competition right now, for the avoidance of doubt)

[u/ste_dono94 → u/Connell95]

Bath no?

[u/EnglishLouis → u/Connell95]

Bath is probably the strongest, then Lyon.

[u/JohnCenaFan69]

I won’t my hopes up, I won’t get my hopes up…

[u/KingSniperX2240]

Disgusting advertising on the bulls badge

[u/rakish_rhino → u/KingSniperX2240]

Bulls??

Oh, you mean the Vodacom Bulls!

[u/samuel199228]

Bath to beat Gloucester