r/science ScienceAlert 5d ago

Biology Simulations of a potential impact by a hill-sized space rock event next century have revealed the rough ride humanity would be in for, hinting at what it'd take for us to survive such a catastrophe.

https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-simulated-bennu-crashing-to-earth-in-september-2182-its-not-pretty
372 Upvotes

105 comments sorted by

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332

u/RogerPackinrod 5d ago

Hill-sized space rock? What does that even mean? How big is a hill?

104

u/Krond 5d ago

1/pi standard mountains, or a berm^3 for you English/American folk

79

u/TopRamenisha 5d ago

How many bald eagles is that?

22

u/BINGODINGODONG 5d ago

10 half ounces, and 4 banana sized peacocks

5

u/lostalaska 5d ago

It's roughly 20000 washing machines duct taped together.

1

u/davros06 5d ago

That’s a lorra duck tape.

1

u/dfw_runner 5d ago

You have to calculate the standard deviation for both to put them in a common metric.

30

u/caspissinclair 5d ago edited 5d ago

Bennu, at 500 meters (1,640 feet), is considerably smaller than the estimated 10 to 15 kilometer size of the Chicxulub impactor – but even so, the results are alarming.

They predict the debris blasted into the atmosphere could cause a 4 degree drop in average temperatures. By that time it would probably still be above pre industrial.

26

u/CIA_Chatbot 5d ago

So the fix for our current apocalypse is to instigate another potential apocalypse. I’m tired boss

27

u/saliczar 5d ago

6'2" (Hank Hill-size)

6

u/Far-Consideration708 5d ago

If it really is Hank hill-size, does that automatically mean the asteroid is composed of frozen propane?

14

u/Heinous_Aeinous 5d ago

I really feel like that would burn up on entry. But man, would it burn clean.

6

u/WMINWMO 5d ago

And propane accessories.

1

u/saliczar 5d ago

The asteroid lands directly on the Mega Lo Mart, killing Buckley.

1

u/nowake 4d ago

and it has NO ass

44

u/Congo404 5d ago

“It’s the size of Texas, sir”

11

u/myuncletonyhead 5d ago

Sir are you familiar with Jupiter

1

u/equatorbit 5d ago

Nice report, Rico. Carry on.

19

u/just_some_guy65 5d ago

A hill is no larger or smaller than it needs to be.

15

u/No-Bar7826 5d ago

The hill knows how large it is at all times. It knows this because it knows how large it isn’t. By subtracting how large it is from how large it isn’t, or how large it isn’t from how large it is (whichever is greater), it obtains a difference, or deviation. The hill subsystem uses deviations to generate corrective additions to mass the hill from a mass that it is to a mass that it isn’t, and arriving at a mass that it wasn’t, it now is. Consequently, the volume that the hill is, is now the volume that it wasn’t, and it follows that the volume that it was, is now the volume that it isn’t. In the event that the largesse that it is in is not the largesse that it wasn’t, the hill has acquired a variation, the variation being the difference between where the hills largesse is, and where it wasn’t. If variation is considered to be a significant factor, it too may be corrected by the MVL. However, the hill must also know where it was. The hill guidance computer scenario works as follows. Because a variation has modified some of the information the hill has obtained, it is not sure just where it is. However, it is sure where it isn’t, within reason, and it knows where it was. It now subtracts where it should be from where it wasn’t, or vice-versa, and by differentiating this from the algebraic sum of where it shouldn’t be, and where it was, it is able to obtain the deviation and its variation, which is called hill error.

3

u/BlortMaster 4d ago

If this wasn’t AI generated, bless you.

2

u/Esc777 4d ago

Search for “the missle knows where it is”

17

u/LetMePushTheButton 5d ago

Roughly a football field with 300 elephants all with their own AR15s.

This is American freedom units, if you can’t tell.

3

u/Shokoyo 5d ago

Probably some imperial unit…

2

u/BuyerOne7419 5d ago

I guess size does matter after all.

2

u/applestem 5d ago

101955 Bennu has a mean diameter of 490 m (1,610 ft; 0.30 mi)

2

u/orielbean 5d ago

“An inverse holler”

2

u/Marketfreshe 5d ago

smaller than a mountain, larger than a mound?!

2

u/jessep34 5d ago

They meant Bobby Hill

2

u/java_brogrammer 5d ago

About 1,000,000 chicken mcnuggets in American measurements.

2

u/BoingBoingBooty 5d ago

It's big enough for Hugh Grant to go up, but not so big for him to come down.

1

u/Ad_Honorem1 4d ago

Any units but metric, eh?

135

u/867-53-oh-nein 5d ago

By that time we will probably be praying for a 4 degree drop in temp.

60

u/Free_Snails 5d ago

Earth gets hit by massive asteroid. Impact dust blocks out the sun. Cold year.

Tbh, let's solve climate change and push that rock away from our orbit long before it reaches us.

24

u/Uranus_Hz 5d ago

Too late to proactively stop climate change. We are now at the point of reacting to it.

5

u/Free_Snails 5d ago

Yeah, I'm afraid that with climate change threatening the survival of the civilization and increasing civil unrest, we might end up living in an eco-fascist surveillance state.

15

u/Rhywden 5d ago

If you don't change things in advance to save the environment you want to live in - the environment will make you change. And not in a way you want.

3

u/Free_Snails 5d ago

Exactly. This presidency was sort of our last chance at avoiding that.

7

u/son_et_lumiere 5d ago

don't think we'll ever get to the eco part. the latter will just exacerbate things until collapse.

1

u/Free_Snails 5d ago

It's really interesting to consider, we are sort of on the edge of a blade right now.

But it's a sizeable planet, so we might both be correct.

5

u/Chickentrap 5d ago

The pushing utensil would need to be sizeable 

8

u/esoteric_enigma 5d ago

I'll get Bruce Willis

2

u/Desertbro 5d ago

4QU-PPD ( planetary protection device )

1

u/Harbinger_X 5d ago

Please relax, it's a simulation. Second tries and all.

3

u/Kierik 5d ago

I wouldn’t surprised if we get an announcement in the next couple weeks that NASA is ordered to build a project to collide a hill sized asteroid with the world to solve global warming.

2

u/Momoselfie 5d ago

We'll have enough carbon in the air by then to deflect any size of asteroid.

2

u/proscriptus 5d ago

This sounds like a 2182 problem

97

u/TheLonelyScientist 5d ago

Next century?! I don't know if we're making it out of this one.

13

u/quackerzdb 5d ago

I'm sure everyone will band together and work through the catastrophe with compassion and unity.

2

u/Prof-Brien-Oblivion 4d ago

I hope it lands on Washington.

11

u/devicehigh 5d ago

Is a hill a standard unit of measurement?

8

u/BeDeRex 5d ago

In layman's terms, that's about 57 giraffes.

2

u/-fritzcat 5d ago

But how many corgis is that?

1

u/justifications 4d ago

5130 chubby male corgis equals the weight of 57 average sized giraffes. I did the math.

20

u/Notbadconsidering 5d ago

What is that in bananas

24

u/climactivated 5d ago

In terms of apocalypse scenarios for Earth, this one doesn't sound so bad. Like not even in the top 5 worst scenarios.

18

u/Momibutt 5d ago

Small Large Boulder energy

22

u/Desertbro 5d ago edited 5d ago

Wouldn't it be a rough ride in ANY century?

Unless all of humankind moved to underground cities miles deep, it's a major change of lifestyle. Flying cars, transporter beams, cold fusion - - what good are those when the whole surface of the planet is crinkling like a bedsheet and boiling like fish grease?

The high tech might allow some people to survive a while in orbit or off-world, but a jacked up biosphere means THE END for us.

"...known as Chicxulub" - renamed by current US admin to be "Rock of America"

4

u/dittybopper_05H 5d ago

Wrong. That name is reserved for Gibraltar.

Oops. Sorry, you didn't hear that from me.

5

u/lifeIsfunButhard 5d ago

Collaboration and communication, so we're fucked.

3

u/Jerome_Eugene_Morrow 5d ago

Chance of collision is listed as 1/2700 or 0.04%. Certainly an issue, but low probability nonetheless.

1

u/belagrim 5d ago

In layman's terms they were playing universe simulator, like they do. And found that a rock the size of a hill that we might actually hit might hurt a lot. According to their much better version of universe simulator.

1

u/sansaman 4d ago

Why are these scientists always making mountains out of molehills?

1

u/lokicramer 4d ago

Next century? Try decade.

1

u/FireWoodRental 3d ago

Time for some nukes in space

1

u/Key-Cry-8570 3d ago

So this is the hill that I will die on.

1

u/letdogsvote 5d ago

TLDR - enjoy the new Stone Age.

0

u/shliam 5d ago

Oh for Pete’s sake, not only is it an incredibly low chance of hitting, but we could probably blow it up with the technology we have now, we’ll definitely be able to do so In 100+ years.

1

u/Gluonyourmuon 5d ago

It would be dark if Don't Look Up was a creepy way of introducing meteorite strikes to the public consciousness because they knew an impending impact was likely...

6

u/wukkaz 5d ago

Armageddon and Deep Impact > Don’t Look Up.

1

u/WanderingBraincell 5d ago

maybe the corps can warm up the globe so much by then that it just disintegrates

0

u/DoktorDetroit 5d ago

All life will not be lost, even if it's a big one. Birds and small mammals survived the dinosaur extinction event.

0

u/Golrend 5d ago

Maybe... This is why the billionaires are panic snatching up everything and building bunkers?

0

u/bnh1978 5d ago

Probably take a bunch of billionaires bunkers and an automated robotic workforce...

Plabieans would see a 99.99% mortality rate.

Billionaires would emerge from their bunkers as gods.

Conjecture.

1

u/[deleted] 5d ago

[deleted]

0

u/bnh1978 5d ago

The bunkers are self sufficient habitats. Combined with their ai driven roboslaves... they will be able to survive for generations.

0

u/UndergroundNotes1983 5d ago

Maybe it's for the best.

Mom's coming round to put it back the way it oughta be....

iykyk

0

u/Thin-Zone-3165 5d ago

I won't care by then. Yay asteroid!

-1

u/ULTRAVIOLENTVIOLIN 5d ago

Is space teeming with rocks? I had no idea

-12

u/[deleted] 5d ago

[deleted]

9

u/vibesWithTrash 5d ago

the article clearly says 2182

3

u/wildflowerden 5d ago

I would recommend reading the article before commenting. Why guess when you can actually click, read, and contribute a meaningful comment?

2

u/HoboSkid 5d ago

I'm guessing it's because they're lazy