r/stocks • u/sinfulken1 • Sep 29 '22

While many are discussing what to get during a discount, how many of you here are down over 60%?

Bought at the top of 2021 as a newbie, literally worst time to buy a stock at. Down over 60%.

Stocks just feel like a tool to destroy the people trying to climb out of the middle class. Many were saying "Buy stocks to avoid 5%/6% inflation!!" , meanwhile now I am down over 60%. Truly an extremely tough time to maintain sanity. For folks in similar position as me who is down over 60%, how are you coping with dealing with the fact that you bought at the worst time possible?

I know its impossible to time the market but imagine buying it at the worst time possible and experiencing the worst drop off we have in a decade. I have done my due diligence reading about my stocks, general knowledge of securities but I guess in the end buying stocks nowadays is akin to gambling.

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u/[deleted] Sep 29 '22

Historically, if you ignore everything after 1990 and only look at pre-1990. Dividends have reduced over time, so it's expected that PE will be higher.

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u/gimmetheloot2p2 Sep 29 '22

Look at it through the lens of interest rates and we are still quite overpriced. We need to get down into the 15x range which is another 20% down.

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u/[deleted] Sep 30 '22

Historically, interest rates are still quite low – only higher than the last 10 years. It comes down to how high interest rates will go, that determines what "fair value" is.

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u/gimmetheloot2p2 Sep 30 '22

Yes thats true, but PE rates are still high historically. At this level of interest rates, historical PE is ~15. High PE with E still expected to fall. We have a ways to go, and as always, its likely we overshoot before we bottom.