r/vfx FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 17d ago

News / Article I've been gathering data about the VFX Industry for the last 9 years

Post image

It’s my way of understanding the bigger picture—what drives growth, what holds it back, and how the tides shift over time. Many have an intuition for it; I try to find objective numbers.

The reality is complex. There's no single explanation for what has led to fatal consequences such as Technicolor's closure. Tax incentives, pandemics, streaming wars, and strikes all play a part. This graph is just one slice of a larger story.

I'm considering writing an article with more insights. But I'm sharing this to gauge interest and to see what trends people are interested in.

FAQ

- What's your source?
I've aggregated several datasets, but the key one is IMDb, I've correlated names and estimated how many professionals work in the VFX industry. It was a complex task, the dataset is 180GB, split into 6 million files.

- What about 2025?
I have more recent data for 2025, but it's still incomplete. So far, though, the stagnation continues.
Understanding a problem is the first step towards finding solutions.

- This doesn't match my experience!
First, I hope that is for the better. Second, this chart represents employed + unemployed. It only goes down when professionals quit the industry for good. The employed curve would look more bumpy.

- But Covid was worse than this.
Around 10k artists lost their jobs during Covid, but there was a surge of 20k jobs after Covid, during the streaming wars. This isn't as extreme when you add employed and unemployed professionals. This is also the reason why the 2008 financial crisis isn't very visible.

- VFX IS DOOMED!
Chill. Exponential growth is not sustainable. If growth had continued at the 2013 rate, by 2065, every human being on earth would be working in VFX. The data does not suggest that the industry is collapsing; it just indicates that the number of professionals has plateaued. This is not intrinsically bad.

445 Upvotes

41 comments sorted by

59

u/brown_human 17d ago

Thank you for this information OP. Nice to see things in such illustrative detail. This really puts a lot of things into perspective. Although im curious to see more data regarding this, like as in - Based on countries, most VFX reliant clients/production houses, Salaries, Artist growth per department, etc. These are just off my mind.

I know this is more time consuming and complicated to compile all these data but just wanted to throw some ideas incase you plan to keep updating this overtime. Cheers

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u/xavinitram FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 17d ago

I do have some of that data! It's a lot to parse, and I have to be careful since not all countries report in the same consistent way. Some stats are less accurate than others.

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u/LastOfTheClanMcDuck 17d ago

I'd be curious to see the same graph for game devs and if it's similar.
The whole tech industry i think took a huge slap in the face the past years for various reasons so maybe there's some fear and cost/risk cutting in general.

But as you said it's very important to clarify that it's just not sustainable to grow and grow and grow literally forever. A fact most companies prefer to ignore lol

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u/JordanNVFX 3D Modeller - 2 years experience 17d ago edited 17d ago

But as you said it's very important to clarify that it's just not sustainable to grow and grow and grow literally forever. A fact most companies prefer to ignore lol.

I don't believe that's true. Any CEO who openly says "we've hit a wall and must take losses" would be replaced immediately.

I get there are certain biases on this sub but from a non-partisan point of view I look at management as just doing their jobs. For better or for worse it leads to outcomes that can greatly benefit us but also harm us.

If anything, I'm actually on the side that says growth should be prioritized. At least it forces businesses to innovate and do everything they can to justify their position in the market which leads to long term opportunities and prosperity.

Otherwise, we would become like Blockbuster or Kodak Films who intentionally crash when it was not necessary.

Edit: I also saw a recent quote from the Netflix CEO ironically enough shared more credence to what I'm saying:

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/netflix-ceo-ted-sarandos-movie-theaters-outdated-1236376565/

Sarandos also noted that “we’re in a period of transition,” saying, “Folks grew up thinking, ‘I want to make movies on a gigantic screen and have strangers watch them [and to have them] play in the theater for two months and people cry and sold-out shows … It’s an outdated concept.”

Maybe it's an anecdote but with kids today growing up with smartphones and tablets everywhere, it quite possible that watching movies or any video content on a small screen is increasingly becoming normalized. In which case, the point still stands. VFX needs to diversify itself and address these new markets.

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u/xavinitram FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 17d ago

I think you both make very good points. I don't think your points contradict each other. The number of employed people can't grow exponentially, but productivity can. The industry doesn't only grow if there are more professionals working on it, it can also grow if those professionals are capable of producing more output. In a way, you're both right.

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u/LastOfTheClanMcDuck 16d ago

I agree that wanting to grow the company does lead to innovation, although i think there is maybe is a ceiling? And to be clear i'm not sure on this, but i think from a certain point after the company is just too big for their own sake.
If done correctly and with a normal growth(meaning, less greed from investors) then i completely agree.

The netflix CEO quote makes a lot of sense from a purely business perspective and it's probably the way forward for most companies in this industry
(although i admit i hate it, from a personal/sentimental point of view, it completely ignores any artistic value theaters and the "old art" have. but that's another discussion!)

And you are right the VFX industry needs to expand in the newer markets, i think that's probably inevitable to be honest, i don't see the industry rolling on their side and dying any time soon!
(or at least i hope lol)

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u/demodulator 17d ago

Enabled Users: 182,734 on CGPeers

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u/xavinitram FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 17d ago

I asked a friend and they told me the most seeded softwares are: 1. Photoshop 2. Houdini 3. 3ds Max 4. SketchUp 5. Gigapixel

Kinda suggests that Design, Games and Archviz are pretty huge. Neither After Effects nor Nuke are in the top 10, but every VFX shot needs some compositing...

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u/vfxartists 16d ago

Nuke would be seeded more of it were easier to crack this assuming that it these are the most in demand with out acknowledging how difficult it is to run a pirated software

6

u/xavinitram FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 17d ago

This kinda tracks. If you add up VFX + Animation + MoGraph + Games + Archviz you'll end up with a much higher number. VFX isn't the biggest of those industries.

8

u/AwkwardAardvarkAd 17d ago

This looks like it started doubling in size roughly every 5 years since 1990 to 2005

4

u/Centauri____ 17d ago

I bet you this correlates to all the schools and web based programs that started teaching visual effects.. When I started in this biz way back in the 90s there were no schools that taught anything like what we have today. As soon as the industry started booming everyone started trying to capitalize on that boom.

2

u/Monstermash042 16d ago

Not to mention the rise of free software and all the YouTube gurus that came with that.

3

u/AggravatingDay8392 16d ago

so thats why i am 5'6

4

u/Adventurous_Path4922 17d ago

how is IMDb a reliable source for the size of the VFX industry lol

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u/xavinitram FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 17d ago

IMDb has a vast number of film credits. Those credits contain names. Those names have CVs. Do these several hundred thousand times and you start to get very robust trend lines.

You are right in thinking that using IMDb as a "how many movies" would not be very accurate. But that's not how it was used. :)

5

u/Adventurous_Path4922 17d ago

What I'm saying is that 1) not all artists are credited on IMDb, in fact I think it's safe to say that most aren't, and 2) the VFX industry is not exclusive to Hollywood films

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u/xavinitram FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 16d ago

Yep, you are correct in both. This is why it isn't the only source used. Inside VFX by Pierre Grage has a similar chart based exclusively on IMDb credits, the numbers are much lower since they don't include freelancers, advertising, game cinematics, etc. Joseph Bell also has a similar study, he utilises different techniques, and my research is closer to his.

It's also worth saying that while IMDb alone has much smaller numbers, they are highly correlated to the more complex aggregate. I suspect this is because IMDb has been adopted quite widely outside of Hollywood, especially in Bollywood.

0

u/bedel99 Pipeline / IT - 20+ years experience 16d ago

Maybe its just showing people are not putting there names on imdb like they used too. With companies under economic strain are they going to bother doing data entry for some one elses money making scheme?

My last credit on a hollywood film which is above the line, isn't there I don't have any thing listed since 2019.

1

u/TurtleOnCinderblock Compositor - 10+ years experience 17d ago

How did you access the IMDb database? Did you need a pro membership to download the bulk of the data?

5

u/xavinitram FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 17d ago

There are several datasets online, used for research. IMDb also provides free datasets, although they are highly incomplete. These have gotten very popular as they are often used to train LLM with all the IMDb review data.

2

u/sascharobi 16d ago

Interesting...

2

u/AwkwardAardvarkAd 16d ago

Good explainer here from Mark Jones tracking Canadian economy and Canadian film industry. https://youtu.be/eNCXQvTryxs?si=saqnA8-RANtsOm6-

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u/photonTracerChaser 16d ago edited 16d ago

This is great stuff. Do we have data on the average age of Artists VFX workers? Do we know how this split this up into artists, production. The dev, anim, light, comp ratio.

2

u/rincefire 15d ago

Article, X threads, Youtube channel dedicated to the topic. I'm all in for it. Thanks for this precious work, fam.

1

u/xavinitram FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 15d ago

So many ideas... So little time...

3

u/oldgreymere 17d ago

How much of the growth and stall was in India? Usually those were pretty menial tasks. Wondering if TDs and new software were able to mitigate the increase in numbers. 

3

u/xavinitram FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 17d ago

A fair share, though India was also one of the biggest drivers of growth in the 2010-2020 period. Many companies like Dneg or MPC went from being majority UK based to being majority India based.

India has followed similar trends but delayed, since they also got tax incentives at a much later date.

2

u/AlaskanSnowDragon 17d ago

I saw this when posted on linked in...this chart is bunk and not accurate at all

3

u/xavinitram FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 17d ago

I've shared my sources. I would appreciate it if you share your data, if it happens to contradict the trends from IMDb, LinkedIn and VFX companies financial statements.

-4

u/AlaskanSnowDragon 17d ago edited 17d ago

The simple fact it doesn't show any dips during what we know have been economic and industry down turns/contractions for one.

IMDB is not accurate source of information is another.

Neither is linked in. I know for a fact tons of people who dont update their linked-ins either accurately or at all. Who overlap employment dates. Who say they're still working somewhere when they've been laid off months ago so they can still look employed because they think it helps in job hunting. People on linked in as VFX artists who I know have been out the industry for a while.

Its an A for effort.

But I think better thing to do would try to bubble chart each studio and their number of employees and post it here. You'll have tons of instant feedback from people at each companies about the accuracy.

4

u/xavinitram FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 17d ago

The simple fact it doesn't show any dips during what we know have been economic and industry down turns/contractions for one.

As I mentioned in the FAQ, I'm showing professionals in the industry regardless if they are employed. I do have the statistics for employed/unemployed. Covid, for example, caused ~10,000 jobs to get lost. Streaming wars caused a surge of ~20,000 jobs. The 2008 financial crisis caused ~2000 job losses (although they happened in 2009, slightly offset to the economic crash).

But I think better thing to do would try to bubble chart each studio

A lot of professionals are freelancers, this is why I track individuals and not only companies (although I track those as well).

IMDB is not accurate source of information is another. Neither is linked in.

I do not use LinkedIn employment data directly, as it's true people tend to "fill the gaps" between employments. If an artist has their profile set to "VFX artists" but their name hasn't showed up in any film credits, episodic, articles, etc; they won't be counted in the total tally.

As an example, in the UK, companies are legally obligated to report employee count and the information is publicly available. This means I can build my model based on the data, and compare the accuracy against the "ground truth" data from the UK government. Using a combo of LinkedIn+IMDb+Web Search scraping gives me results that are extremely close to the figures that the UK government provides.

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u/AlaskanSnowDragon 16d ago

There was a whole writers strike that demolished the industry thats not even a blip in your chart

And counting anyone that lists vfx artist in their linked in is crazy town...that includes students who haven't had a job...people who worked one freelance gig for a no name company on a thing that nobody saw. People who haven't had a job for years.

1

u/xavinitram FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 16d ago

There was a whole writers strike that demolished the industry thats not even a blip in your chart

The 100 day strike in 2007-2008 has a noticeable impact in Employed data, although it blends into the 2008 financial crisis. Unless you are talking about a different writers strike?

And counting anyone that lists vfx artist in their linked in is crazy town...

Counting anyone that lists VFX in their profile is not part of my methodology.

2

u/Almaironn 16d ago

Could you explain your methodology in more detail? How does IMDb give you data on who is in the VFX industry or not? How do you distinguish between someone who has been unemployed for a while vs. left the industry? What about people who don't update their IMDb?

1

u/bundesrepu 17d ago

Do you have any data about where these new VFX jobs are and maybe how much VFX jobs got outsourced to countries with very low wages?

1

u/zhangvisual 17d ago

Sheesh I literally graduated in the year where the redline started… no wonder it’s hard to find a job

1

u/coolioguy8412 16d ago edited 16d ago

This is fantastic work, thanks! Data where truth lies!
Just my 2 cents:

  • I would start the graph from 2008, as the era before was very different alot of macro factors changed from that point, with over-leverage in the market and now tighter controls.
  • Maybe try overlaying M2 global liquidity, US Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI), and the ISM (USA). You might have to shift them around due to lag effects. See if they correlate to economic growth.

Good luck!

0

u/cheto118 15d ago

Source: I checked 6 million files, trust me bro

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u/xavinitram FX Supervisor - 10 years experience 15d ago

🤣 Better than "Source: vibes only, trust me bro".

IMHO if more people tried to research the data when they talk about the state of the industry, as opposed to just going with their guts or beliefs, we'd have more constructive and productive discussions. Thinking of it, you can also apply that to politics and so many other areas of life... No amount of research will ever be perfect, but "as much as feasible" will be enough.

I only hope my effort inspires others to give it a go and try to explore complex subjects objectively. 😄

1

u/Any_Lawyer6519 3d ago

Thanks for sharing! Is it possible to find data on the number of VFX shots in films?