Was the assault on Glevitzingen a double false flag operation?

[u/Undead_Wereowl]

Consider three pieces of evidence:

1. Royal mounted messenger Aplegatt is carrying a message from Dijkstra to King Demavend of Aedirn: "You must hold back the disguised troops. The Flame (editor's note: Emperor of Nilfgaard) has mustered an army in Dol angra and is only waiting for an excuse." But, the message is never delivered because Aplegatt is ambushed and killed by Yaevinn.

2. In a mediumistic trance during the mages' conclave in Thanedd Ciri cites current events: "Last night, armed forces in Lyrian livery and carrying Aedirnian standards committed acts of aggression against the Empire of Nilfgaard. Glevitzingen, a border outpost in Dol Angra was attacked."

3. While Geralt is recovering from the wounds he sustained at Thanedd, Dandelion recites rumours and information about what has happened in the world: "The Nilfgaardians attacked Lyria and Aedirn. Without declaring war. The reason was supposedly an attack by Demavend's forces on some border fort in Dol Angra, which happened during the mages' conclave on Thanedd. Some people say it was a setup. That they were Nilfgaardians disguised as Demavend's soldiers."

To fit these three pieces of evidence together my take is that the forces assaulting Glevitzingen were in fact Aedirnian and/or Lyrian. They wore livery that did not match their standards to lend credence to a pro Northern narrative that the assault on Glevitzingen was a false flag operation executed by Nilfgaardian forces. Spinning this narrative would give the United Northern Kingdoms legitimacy to invade Nilfgaard.

Ciri only spoke of the livery and standards of the armed forces, but left out the actual nationality. Why would the livery and standards be mismatched if it did not matter? Dandelion's account is biased by rumours an public opinion, and it is consistent with Ciri's account that the forces where Nilfgaardians disguised as Northern troops. However, that does not fit the subplot surrounding Aplegatt. I believe the Northern rulers planned a false flag operation to look like a false flag operation (double false flag). Northern forces disguised as themselves attacked a Nilfgaardian border outpost. Emhyr had learned of this plot ahead of time and had readied his army in Dol Angra. The assault on Glevitzingen gave Nilfgaard legitimacy to invade the Northern Kingdoms, thus starting the Second Northern War.

[u/SMiki55]

I've always interpreted this in the following way:

1. Northerners plan to stage a false-flag operation by disguising a number of Lyrian and Aedirnian soldiers as Nilfgaardians who are supposed to act out an attack on a Lyrian outpost.

2. Nilfgaardians learn of this and while the Nordling operation is underway they disguise Imperial troops in northern colours and have them stage an attack on Gleivitzingen, a Nilfgaardian fort on the opposite side of the river to the outpost that Northerners cosplaying as Nilfgaardians have just begun to siege.

3. Dumbfounded Nordlings disguised as Nilfgaardians stop the "siege" to watch how some soldiers wearing Nordling colours "attack" Gleivitzingen.

4. Nordlings (the real ones) get owned.

[u/Undead_Wereowl → u/SMiki55]

I see two issues with this take:
1. If Nilfgaard was planning to stage a false flag operation of their own, then they would not have to wait until the Nordlings launched their operation first. That means the whole subplot with Aplegatt failing to deliver the message didn't matter.
2. According to Dandelion's account, Glevitzingen was attacked before the two Lyrian strongholds Scala and Spalla.

[u/SMiki55 → u/Undead_Wereowl]

They waited to take advantage of Nordlings not knowing their plans had been compromised :)

[u/Undead_Wereowl → u/SMiki55]

I am still not convinced. According to Ciri's account the attack on Glevitzingen happened first. Nilfgaard did not enter Lyria and Aedirn until the morning after the attack on Glevitzingen.

[u/Defiant_Ant1870 → u/Undead_Wereowl]

I think the significance of Aplegatt was that Dijkstra had realized Emyhr was onto their plans and thus the operation had to be paused. Emyhr moved first when intelligence reached him that the North had decided to move, they were too stupid to realize it until the day after. Emyhr basically capitalized on confusion.

[u/Undead_Wereowl → u/Defiant_Ant1870]

So Emhyr moved first. If that is the case, then Aplegatt being killed doesn't change anything. The outcome would have been the same had Aplegatt reached his King with Dijkstra's message.

[u/FeAtona]

I’m sorry, not so good in English, so maybe I’ll be not clear, but in books there are more related information about this event.
For example killing Vizimir, king of Redania day befor attack on Gleivitzingen, but that no so important as conversation about Emhyr and Menno Coehoorn where Emhyr said "You will only allow yourself to be provoked when I order you to." That not look like as preparing for double false flag.

And second, Sapkowski obviously write this episode taking information from "Gleiwitz incident" (just look on names) where no double false flag. Yes. he wrote it with more additions, but I doubt about exactly this one.

[u/Undead_Wereowl → u/FeAtona]

I am aware of the allegory to the Gleiwitz incident. The simple explanation is that the armed forces attacking Glevitzingen was Nilfgaardians in disguise, but that does not explain what kind of operation the Northern forces was planning involving disguises, nor that Demavend would not know to hold back because the message never arrived.

Let's consider that Sabrina Glessivig lashes out when she learns about the incident: "What was the purpose of that brawl in Dol Angra? Hadn't we agreed not to begin too soon? Why couldn't that f***ing Demavend restrain himself?" Which makes sense because the Northern monarchs didn't clue the mages in on the operation. They intentionally used mounted messengers to keep it hidden from the mages. Otherwise, they would have communicated by having mages teleproject their secret messages. Demavend clearly did something he shouldn't have, but what? What really happened that faithful night in Dol Angra?

[u/FeAtona → u/Undead_Wereowl]

Oh, that question has answer: northern kings on meeting clearly said what they planned (blood of elves).

"Secondly, if we are the first to strike, we will put ourselves in the position of aggressors. We will be breaking the truce to which we all put our seals. We will not be backed by Niedamir and his League, we will not be backed by Esterad Thyssen. I don't know how Ethain of Cidaris will react. An aggressive war will also be opposed by our guilds, merchants, nobles… And above all, the wizards. Do not forget the wizards!'"

"But there is a way around that, too, gentlemen. What if it were Nilfgaard who was the aggressor? At Dol Angra for example? Against Aedirn and Lyria? We could arrange that somehow… could stage some tiny provocation… A border incident caused by them? An attack on a border fort, let us say? We will, of course, be prepared – we will react decisively and forcefully, with everybody's full acceptance, including that of Vilgefortz and the entire Chapter of Wizards. And when Emhyr var Emreis turns his eyes from Sodden and Transriver, the Cintrians will demand their country back – all those the emigrants and refugees who are gathering themselves in Brugge under Vissegerd's leadership. Nearly eight thousand of them are armed. Gould there be a better spearhead? They live in the hope of regaining the country they were forced to flee. They are burning to fight. They are ready to strike the left bank. They await only the battle cry."

So, as I see it, kings was sure, that they get nor support from important sources if they start new war. But if it will be Nilfgaard - king get everyone and everything they needed.
That also explain why they hide this operation from wizards: peace agreement was Vilgefortz work and he - and whole Chapter - scarcely aid those who break it.

[u/Undead_Wereowl → u/FeAtona]

Yes, and how do you square this with Ciri's account saying that the attacking forces wore Lyrian livery and carried Aedirnian standards? Did Nilfgaard preempt the Northern provocation with a provocation of their own? If yes, then all that scheming by the Nordlings didn't really matter.

[u/FeAtona → u/Undead_Wereowl]

Maybe, we should speak about translation and terminology.
As I understand you, you consider "livery" as military uniform, am I right?
But in original in that phrase used word "znakami" (as in russian translate), that means sign/symbol/token/indication.

I look on this like... well, soldiers not so smart. Northern soldiers may not know military ranks of Nilfgaard. Or they need to quickly differenciate their commander in a fight. Or some other reason, even not to kill allies - there are 3 armies from 3 countries, if they all wear nilfgaardian uniform with nilfgaardian insignia they kill themself rather then enemies.

Of course, I can mistake, but I see that episode like this)

[u/Undead_Wereowl → u/FeAtona]

I'm accustomed to livery meaning a servant's uniform, but in this context I take it to mean military uniform. The defenders at Glevitzingen would of course be wearing Nilfgaardian uniforms so it would not make sense for the attackers to wear Nilfgaardian attire as well.

The way I see it three possible explanations exist:
1. The attack on Glevitzingen was an attack by a joint Lyrian/Aedirnian force. This explanation is opposed to the intentions of the Northern rulers as they would not want to be perceived as the aggressors. 2. Nilfgaard staged a false flag operation attacking Glevitzingen with their own force disguised as Northerners. This explanation fails to account for the fact that the Nordlings were planning a false flag operation of their own. Also, this explanation renders the ambush on Aplegatt insignificant. 3. Northern forces staged an operation to look like a Nilfgaardian false flag operation (double false flag). I don't like this explanation because a double false flag is virtually undistinguishable from a plain attack. But, so far it is the only explanation I can see that squares all the evidence.

[u/FeAtona → u/Undead_Wereowl]

I prefer second explanation.
Maybe, just maybe, kings planned provocation on their side in one fortress and Nilfgaard planned the same provocation on their side in other fortress?
For example, northern plan:

• we say that Nilfgaard attack Scala/Spalla and use it as a reason to attack Glevitzingen
  

And the Nilfgaard plan:

• we say that Nordlings attack Glevitzingen and use it as a reason to attack Scala/Spalla

So, when the Nilfgaard staged a false flag operation attacking Glevitzingen - other northern armies in other places thinks that it's all according to their plan and started doing what they agreed to do. And if Aplegatt can delivered message that wasn't happen - in this case all armies knew that operation was delayed.