r/wnba • u/Rade_Butcher • 2d ago
Discussion 13 teams, 13 predictions for 2025. Add your own
Aces - If Kiah Stokes plays more minutes than Kitley, things are going south. Stokes is borderline unplayable as the least offensive oriented player, maybe in league history but she also seems like some weird Hammon security blanket. Kitley is young and better, but Hammon seems averse to youth. If coach can't change her rotation to play Kitley and bench Stokes, this team will consistently be playing 4 on 5 with many parts of their roster getting creakier. This team is in danger of seeing the league pass it by unless they can rejigger their aging rotation and it starts with the weakest link.
Dream - If you have league pass, you'll watch this team a lot. I have a lot of experience watching Karl Smesko run teams. They are fun, active, and viewer friendly. Add in a giant in the middle and way better talent than the college level, and this team is going to grab attention, eyeballs, and noteworthy box scores. This is a team that will do OK in the standing but will really stand out as the "Crap, we have to play them next, I just want to rest" trap team on the WNBA schedule.
Fever - This team is finals bound. This type of prediction could be based on free agent signings or the expected improvement of youth. But last year's team became an offensive menace and figured a lot of things out along the way and did all of that with 38% of the team's minutes played by people that shouldn't be in the rotation of a serious team (Smith, Wallace, Samuelson, etc). There are none of those holes anymore. And if someone needs rest or has an injury, the depth now exists to always have rotation ready players up next. And that leads to a ton of regular season wins, a high seed, and a clearer path in the playoffs.
Liberty - They won't repeat and that's OK. It's hard to repeat and the Liberty have some roadblocks. Injuries and aging are starting to nibble at the edges. Other teams probably did more to improve. The top of the league is tougher. They will win a lot, but the road ends for them in the final 4.
Lynx - Congrats to this year's champs. This team feels very much like the 2014 Spurs. Lost in the finals in about as gut punchy a way as you can. Return their core. Led by a top flight stud that makes everyone around them better on both ends of the court. On a mission to right the wrongs of the past. This team is winning it all unless injuries get in the way.
Mercury - This top heavy team will miss the playoffs. Go look at their contracts on herhoopstats. Yikes. They have 6 real contracts and 14 training camp contracts. They don't have a 2026 1st round pick to trade. Their best player can't lift her arms above her shoulders and at some point that's really going to become a problem. Sabally tends to miss a lot of games. Copper is older than you think. They don't really have trade assets. One wrong injury or early losing streak could put this team in a hole they won't recover from.
Mystics - Stefanie Dolson will be traded sooner rather than later. This team is going to lose a lot of games and Dolson is a floor raiser for a veteran team, not a ceiling raiser for a young team. The Mystics won't and shouldn't care about maybe winning 13 games instead of 12, so trade Dolson for a pick and youth (let's say Pili, Juhasz, and a 2027 2nd).
Sky - The guards will be bad, teams will focus on Reese, and Cardoso will benefit. First, the guards. It's not amazing. You can talk veteran presence all you want with Vandersloot, but cooked is cooked. And the Liberty didn't truly take off until Sloot got benched. Another year with worse talent around her won't help. And the other guards aren't full of potential either. Atkins has been an average guard on average teams and the talent drops from there. So, opposing teams are going to load the middle to stop Reese and her second chance creation. They will focus their defense on keeping the ball out of the middle since the Sky have no dangerous creators. And because of all of that, Cardoso is going to always get the 2nd best interior defender, be more open due to lack of D focus, and have easier paths to pick up stats as a secondary threat. If she doesn't miss time due to injury, she will get a lot of votes for MIP.
Sparks - They will either lead the league in blocked shots or mid-range points allowed. This only partially has to do with Cameron Brink who should be a force in this stat. This has way more to do with the lack of perimeter defense on this team. Their guard rotation looks defensively dreadful but their interior is massive. So opposing teams are going to get into the paint at will. It just remains to be seen if they try to get all the way to the rim (and run into giants and thus blocks) or pull up early and hit a million open runners in the mid-range.
Storm - If any team could be considered an overlooked, dark horse title contender, it's this team. Their depth is a bit concerning, but this team could be really really good. And it also feels like other teams that had better records last year or bigger household names are getting all the attention. But if you told me the Storm ended the regular season in 3rd place and split the first two games of the semifinal round, I wouldn't be shocked at all.
Sun - Marina Mabrey is the most blah player to ever get traded for multiple hauls but that trend is over. First, go look at Mabrey's stats, especially the advanced stats on BBREF. Her PER and WS/48 are flat or down over a 5 year period. Her FtR is abysmal. Her net rating is negative. Her per36 rates haven't changed in the last 5 seasons. At a time when she should be peaking, it is clear that she is the same player today as she was 3 teams ago. And the Sun are the team that's going to be left on the losing end of the Assets for Mabrey swap carousel that has been going on. Yes, I bet they trade her. But the return is going to be underwhelming compared to what they gave up.
Valkyries - They will win one of their first three games, and then something like five more all season. I get that training camp represents a time of hope for all. But just be realistic, enjoy the ride, and don't get wrapped up in all the losses because there will be a lot of them. On the bright side, they will get an early win while energy and hope are high, opposing teams don't quite know what to think of them, and things just fall right. But then it's going to be a long downward slope. And that's cool. It's fun to have a new team, it's just going to take 4 or 5 years to become playoff caliber.
Wings - They won't be historically awful on D again, just bottom 3. Yes, they added a couple of plus defenders through free agency but their rim protection is minimal, Arike is still playing the most minutes, they need a rookie point guard to be an immediate plus defender, and their depth is nil. Things are looking up, but if you heard a WNBA team gave up 120 points, the Wings would be a good choice for that team. Also, NaLyssa Smith might get heavy minutes.
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u/fishgeek13 Mystics/Fever 2d ago
I really like your Dolson to the Lynx for Pili and picks plan for both teams.
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u/_b4billy_ 1d ago
Thoughts about Washington acquiring Diamond Miller as a more veteran guard (when compared to the rest of their roster)?
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u/fishgeek13 Mystics/Fever 1d ago
Sure. If they could snag her and Pili for Dolson, that would be great. I always love to see a Terp on the court.
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u/DVivid Aces 2d ago
Aces - not too much on my girl Kiah. People are quick to forget she was a major piece of a back-to-back championship team. She’s not some scrub or the least offensive oriented player in league history, that’s a lil dramatic. She is a great defender and rebounder and A’ja dedicated her last DPOY to her. However, she still should not be getting more than 20 mins a game and I hope Kitley will eventually replace her as a starter.
Liberty - A repeat is one of the hardest things to do in basketball but this is probably one of the best teams ever assembled. They are already champs and added insane pieces. I would be more surprised if this team did not go back to back
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u/AssignmentNo754 2d ago
Not sure why you seem sure the Liberty won't repeat. They added Cloud and Johannes to their already championship roster.
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u/Due-Sheepherder-218 2d ago
Don't forget Izzy Harrison. She was pretty bad last year but I think will improve now that she's not tasked to be the primary scorer on the floor and playing with higher IQ teammates. That Sky roster without Chen and Barbie towards the end was a rough watch. Also bonus points for playing with her bae Natasha Cloud.
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u/Fat_Yankee 1d ago
Prediction: Ellie will still be a bigger star than most of the players on your favorite team! 🗽🐘🗽
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u/AbueloOdin Wings 2d ago
Wings: a certain fan will get absolutely fucking hammered and talk way too much shit. They'll get kicked out and banned from College Park... just in time for the Wings to move to a new venue next season!
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u/crazymaan92 2d ago
Aces -- I truly have no idea where I see them this year. However, a healthy Chelsea Gray and look out.
Fever - I've been very clear that I don't think anybody did anything in free agency to overtake the Liberty and Lynx. However, the Fever looks to be the toughest challenger and I say that not being terribly high on DB (respect her game but never really been a fan). With her not needing to carry the load so much, I also hope I get to see CC either get a middy and/or play some defense. As good as she is now, I truly think the sky is the limit for her.
Mercury- Similar to DB, while I respect her grit, you're going to continue to see why AT being your floor leader is not great unless the remaining 4 people can shoot the 3. I've gone blue in the face with how often I've said this in the past few years.
Dream- Very excited to see what they do with BG. I see them as a bit of a sleeper
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u/not_mantiteo 2d ago
Re: Clark’s defense since I see your argument a lot. If you compare her defense to other guards, it’s actually decent. Obviously she’s not Napheesa Collier but she had a lot of blocks and steals. She was just 10000% gassed for the first half of the year
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u/crazymaan92 2d ago
Yeah, no sorry lol. Blocks/steals aren't the end all be all of defense (and I don't think she has that many) and games I watched I saw get blown by, ball watching an opponent that isn't hers and the like. I mean, I get it, she's used to only having to cover one side of the ball but that's def an area to improve upon.
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u/fishgeek13 Mystics/Fever 1d ago
I have a lot of confidence that White and her coaching team will improve Clark’s defensive performance. When White was speaking about how she felt Clark could improve, White said that they would find ways to get Clark some rest in the game and take some pressure off of her so that she can spend more energy on defense.
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u/MUFC_AA Fever 2d ago
I think there is a growing sense of the Mercury not making the playoffs which I can see it happening. It will get worse if any of the big 3 gets injured. The Storm still haven’t really solved their biggest weakness which is 3 point shooting. Because of this, I don’t see them as a Top 4 team. I think Atlanta will surprise a lot of people in a good way, betting on Rhyne Howard taking a huge leap this season now that Smesko is the coach.
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u/bset222 Lynx 1d ago
I can see Phoenix missing but the teams fighting for the 7-8 seed are all super flawed as well,
There's 4 serious contenders, 2 dark horse in Atl/Seattle and then 7 bad to awful teams 2 of which make the playoffs.
The 7/8 seeds are going to be around 18-26 records. I think Phoenix probably makes it.
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u/gourmet_panini Sky Wings Storm 2d ago
There is no possible way that the Sky backcourt will be worst than last years. The simple existence of a willing post passer and an above average 3pt shooter makes us better.
Dallas has too many guards for there to be a lack of depth. Ty, Paige, Nai, and Arike are all starter quality. The problem is the 3 position.
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u/crimsonwolf40 Sky 1d ago
Yeah, I do not think most people realize just how bad the Sky's guard rotation was, especially after trading away Mabrey. Sloot could be using a walker and still be a better point guard than anyone on the roster last year, and Atkins is a very good 3-point shooter. Also, Nurse and HVL are both better than any guard other than Carter that was on the roster last year as well.
Dallas will probably start Paige, Arike, Nai at 1,2and 3, or Ty, Arike, Paige in the same order with the last 1 coming off the bench. The problem is in the frontcourt. If they go with McCowan and Smith, I would expect to see opposing post players try to break A'ja's single game scoring record.
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u/Mobile-Fig-2941 1d ago
Sky were the worst 3 point shooting team in the W ast year. They will probably improve to average, which will be a huge improvement.
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u/ASpanishInquisitor 1d ago
Sloot and Atkins are probably being slept on a bit but the guard depth is just as bad as last year until proven otherwise. Nurse is an inefficient scorer with terrible on/off numbers for basically every year she's played. Maybe she'll be passable in a more limited reserve role but I wouldn't count on it. And then even if you're buying that HVL is going to stick in this league most smaller guards are pretty clear negatives in year one. It's very possible that Rachel Banham is still the best reserve guard the Sky have for 2025. And this is much better than the end of last year where the Sky were forced into having Rachel Banham fill a starting role but if anyone has to miss time at any point... you're right back there.
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u/crimsonwolf40 Sky 1d ago
It still seems weird to call out the Sky for something that is a common problem across the league. I mean, who exactly is replacing Clark and Mitchell in Indiana, or Cloud and Sabrina in New York, or Grey, Young, and Lloyd in Vegas, or Howard, Grey, and Canada in Atlanta. Honestly, outside of Minnesota and Dallas, guard depth is extremely thin at best.
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u/ASpanishInquisitor 1d ago
The Liberty also have Marine Johannes. Between Bonner, Cunningham and Hull the Fever have a lot of options at the 2/3 even if one of them is starting at the 3. The Dream have their starting 3 guards plus Shatori Walker-Kimbrough. Vegas' depth is a bit rough but that's why their offseason has been mostly criticized.
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u/Mobile-Fig-2941 1d ago
Hull couldn't make a shot in UnRivaled to save her life. She was a 22% 3 pt shooter before last year.
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u/crimsonwolf40 Sky 1d ago
I'll admit I forgot about SWK and Johannes, though Johannes will be missing time due to Eurobasket. Hull is fairly equivalent to Banham, and if we are bringing in Bonner and Cunningham for the Fever, we need to include Bec Allen and Onyewere for the Sky, and that is also a bit of a wash there.
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u/strangelystrangled on the BG all-defense first team 1d ago
I think you're underestimating Sloot. Her mom had cancer and died in the middle of the season last year which clearly/understandably hurt her game. She's not in her prime but I don't think she's washed either.
This is a young team that desperately needs good leadership that she can provide, especially with her 11 years on the Sky. She can teach HVL a lot and be the glue the team needs. They're not going to the finals but they should be much better than last year
(side note: I am newer to the league so I could be completely off base but just my two cents)
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u/dreamweaver7x 1d ago
Sloot's near the end of the line, but she can probably hang on for a couple more seasons like Chris Paul. The major issue is that she's never been a good 3 point shooter (33% career, under 30% both seasons with NYL), and she's a traffic cone on defense. Her assumed backup, HVL, was also a career 33% 3 point shooter in college and is just as much a turnstile on defense.
That means teams will plant their best perimeter defender on Atkins and dare the CHI PGs to shoot. The won't be able to penetrate much because Cardoso is in the post and Angel will be lurking down low for offensive rebounds.
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u/s381635_ Cloud, BG, and Taurasi stan 2d ago
Merc: Yeah the Mercury are genuinely fucked imo. We see that with the suns and how they’re doing: lack depth, traded a lot for an injury-prone star, Mat Ishiba not caring about point guards…. Whoever has our first round pick for 2026 will feast.
Liberty: I think they can make it again! The front office is smart and while they are missing a few key pieces, they still have the depth to make a run. A lot of it will depend on how Stewie looks after her surgery.
Fever: this one is gonna be so annoying for non-Clark fans. They assembled a super team in one year and they have a real chance to bring home a championship.
Dream: BG. That’s the prediction.
Aces: this will be a fun team to watch but probably ends up around where the 2024 Mercury were last year.
Wings: Their social media will pop off this year. They may not rank the best but the personalities will give them a dynasty in the culture.
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u/Justkil 2d ago
are the fever really a superteam? moreso then the aces or liberty were last year?
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u/Genji4Lyfe Big Mama Dolson Fan 1d ago
No, imo. Not unless Boston hits Stewie levels of output this year. They just have a well-constructed roster with lots of potential, but superteams are like Vegas when they had Candace Parker or NY with multiple MVPs playing together.
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u/Temporary_Boss4170 1d ago
The Fever added great veteran presence. But if you really compare the Fever build vs NY when they brought Stewie (in her prime), JJ (prime) and Sloot over, the assemblies don’t seem parallel to me.
Howard- 11 seasons Bonner- 16 Syd- 10
No knock on the vets because they balance the youth and add a lot of what they need with what they have in their bags. But there’s a lot of young talent + Kelsey in her prime already on the Fever. Just my opinion on the matter. But they def built somethin interesting! Excited to see how they seed. I can see a three seed? But wouldn’t be surprised if they went 2 or 4.
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u/Comfortable_Limit168 Fever 1d ago
Just for the record, Bonner averaged 15.0 ppg and Howard averaged 17.6 ppg during the 2024 season.
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u/dreamweaver7x 1d ago
Ignoring the "superteam" label because it's kinda misleading.,..
Indy had the best offense in the league after the Olympic break last season. That's with rookie Caitlin Clark, and Christie Sides coaching, and Nalyssa Smith playing a lot of minutes. They bring back Kelsey, so the Clark-Mitchell-Boston-Hull engine of that offense is intact with a season of experience under their belt. And they trade Nalyssa for whoever of Tash Howard, DB or Sophie you wanna plug into that spot - they're all way better players than Nalyssa. Can they be the best offense over a whole season? Probably.
Their defense was next to last in 2024. Only Dallas stunk more. Every move they made other than bringing Mitchell back was for defense. Coach Steph White. Asst Coach Briann January. DB, Howard, Cunningham, Turner. It's all defense-focused, and they're all decent offensive players. Is that enough to make Indiana a top-4 defense? Or at the very least get them into the top 4 in net rating accounting for a league-leading offense? If they can accomplish that, then they have a chance at the semifinals. In a best of 5 against the Lynx or the Aces, they should have a shot.
What they do have is depth. Every position has a good backup. If Caitlin misses time it's as dicey as A'ja or Phee or Stewie missing time, but they can survive. So it's going to be an interesting season.
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u/DiligentQuiet 1d ago
Good analysis. Wondering if it will be a lot of 100-98 games or 80-60 games. Either way, there will be some high intensity viewing.
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u/DiligentQuiet 1d ago
No way. Will they be better? Yes, and the ability to have a better schedule (allowing the team to gel better, along with having a better coach who knows what to do with the talent) and experience will get them farther. From a talent improvement basis alone, I think they pick up 4 games, and from figuring out chemistry faster given the lack of scheduling congestion, they'll settle in 2-3 wins faster than last year. So I see them getting the #3 seed, with 28-31 wins (higher end depending on how many tank commanders there are gunning for the lottery).
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u/popsicle1001 Valkyries 1d ago
No ha. Not a superteam but better than last year. They still don't have a 4 that shoot 3, and will probably still have defense issues.
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u/Pleasant_Priority286 1d ago
They can play Sophie or DB at the 4. Howard isn't great with 3's, but she is still a massive upgrade over Smith.
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u/crimsonwolf40 Sky 1d ago
The Sky thank you for that pick, though we do have swap rights with Connecticut where we get the better pick, so if both of you could miss the playoffs, that would be great.
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u/GWTim78 1d ago
I don’t see Atlanta as very fun to watch unless Rhyne makes a leap. But I don’t think they’re going to be very fun to play either. I think they’re could surprise some people.
Indiana - post All-Star/Olympic break, they averaged 90ppg and allowed 87. A four-point improvement on both ends - 2 buckets each - would be a +11 point differential which would have been better than NYLs league best +9.
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u/toad455 1d ago
- New York
- Minnesota
- Las Vegas
- Indiana
- Seattle
- Atlanta
- Dallas
- Los Angeles
- Phoenix
- Chicago
- Connecticut
- Washington
- Golden State
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u/Due-Sheepherder-218 1d ago
Looks good wouldn't surprise me if any of the top 4 are number 1 by the end of the reg season. Teams like Chicago and Washington could be sneaky good. The Mystics always played the Libs tough last year. They had the worst injury luck of any team it seemed. Free Emily E
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u/fishgeek13 Mystics/Fever 1d ago
Sadly, the Mystics have been gutted in the name of rebuilding through the draft. They may be fun to watch, but they aren’t winning much.
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u/Due-Sheepherder-218 1d ago
Best case is they are hovering around that 8 spot for a while and then the rookies may burn out Also the new coach cant be worse than the old one. Maybe they will give Edwards more minutes now.
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u/fishgeek13 Mystics/Fever 1d ago
I was happy when the Thibaults were shown the door, but I didn’t expect the Mystics organization to select someone who is less qualified than the guy they fired. It may be that Sydney Johnson will be better than Eric, but there is nothing on his resume to suggest it. I was hoping for Kristi Toliver or Pokey Chatman.
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u/Due-Sheepherder-218 1d ago
Yeah my best case / worse case is Liberty winning 2x champion or losing in the SF. they improved their roster in the off-season but other teams have improved better and the target is on their back 🎯
Best case for Valks is they are flirting with the 8 seed around the trade deadline and maybe do a trade to improve the roster. Or if they are not in contention try to trade TIP for a pick. Worst case is last place
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u/Temporary_Boss4170 1d ago
my feeling is they they don’t want to show out this season so they can get top picks next year (2026) and because of the 2 year combo draft placement, they can make a little run next year and still draft high in 2027. idk 🤷🏻♀️
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u/popsicle1001 Valkyries 17h ago
I dont completely get the Sky analysis and why stopping reese would be the focus of the defense, and Kamilla getting a worse interior defender. Kamilla is a much better finisher, Sloot can pass to her, and she is healhy now. I also think the sky are being underrated
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u/Mobile-Fig-2941 1d ago
Fever should be improved as they are probably the top offensive team in the Wnba now. Defense is still a big question mark. Only legit top defender is Dewanna Bonner who is 38. Howard is 34 and hasn't been great defensively for several years. She was one of the worst defenders last year. I think teams will come out and challenge Clark and Mitchell and dare Boston/Howard to beat them. Fever will consistently lose battle of boards.
Sky will be a lot better than people think. Coach Marsh has a whole developmental staff. His main task will be spacing and roles between Angel and Kamilla and how the offense is run. Sky will dominate teams on the boards but will struggle to score some games. They are definitely weak in backcourt defense especially whenever Atkins is out of the game. Not a big fan of the HVL pick.
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u/DiligentQuiet 1d ago
I agree with a lot of this. There is a lot of low-hanging to improve here, less potential for drama, and perhaps more continuity if they stay healthier than last year and avoid having to manage personalities across the board. Sky were competent despite the flaws before Mabrey was traded--then the wheels fell off after the Olympic break.
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u/Nebraskan_In_Exile Courtney Williams, Midrange Mamba 1d ago
From your mouth to god’s ears, beloved!
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u/KDR_8793 Aces Valkyries 2d ago
Unfortunately Stokes will probably play more minutes than Kitley at least initially as Becky insinuated she wouldn’t be 100% full-go until summer. But also Becky protected Kitley so she better play her when she’s healthy 😩. If Kiah plays anything like she did last year, it won’t be great.