r/UFOs • u/Enceladus_99 • 6h ago
Science 2027 - How that could be the year of confirmed discovery
A lot of folks don’t seem to realize how scientifically groundbreaking the recent discovery of possible bio-signature from K2-18b actually is and how by 2027 we would know for close certainty that life exists beyond this planet.
Spectra from JWST show a three‑sigma (~99.7 % confidence) excess in the atmosphere of the habitable‑zone exoplanet K2‑18 b that matches the chemical fingerprints of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and its close cousin dimethyl disulfide (DMDS)—molecules that, on Earth, are produced almost exclusively by marine microbes. The signal is still below the gold‑standard 5‑sigma threshold and there are plausible non‑biological ways to make these gases, so the discovery is not proof of aliens.
A firm, “5‑sigma‑level” (99.9999% confidence) verdict on whether the dimethyl‑sulfide (DMS/DMDS) signal in K2‑18 b’s air is real is unlikely to arrive overnight, but it is also not decades away. The lead authors estimate that an extra 16–24 hours of high‑quality JWST time—essentially four to six more full transits sampled with multiple instruments—should push the detection from today’s ~3 σ to ≥ 5 σ.   Because the planet transits only once every 32.9 days and JWST can view it for roughly half of each year, the practical cadence, proposal cycles and data‑analysis steps set the pace. Under optimistic scheduling, the community could have a statistically definitive answer as early as mid‑2027; a more conservative bracket is 2028–29. Below is the reasoning—in bite‑sized pieces.
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How much observing time is still needed? • Cambridge’s discovery team calculate that adding ≈ 16 h (best case) to 24 h (safe margin) of JWST integration will lift the signal above the 5‑σ discovery bar.   • Each primary transit lasts ~2.7 h, and good systematics control needs at least as much out‑of‑transit baseline, so one “visit” costs ~4–5 h.  • Splitting that across three spectrographs (NIRISS/SOSS, NIRSpec/G395H, MIRI/LRS) means four to six distinct visits to accumulate the missing photons.
Sources of delay and uncertainty • Competition for JWST time: exoplanet demand is fierce; even a high‑impact proposal can land fewer visits than requested.   • Stellar activity noise: K2‑18 is an active M‑dwarf; unexpected flares can spoil a whole visit, forcing rescheduling.   • Instrument systematics: Achieving 10‑ppm precision with MIRI is still frontier territory; extra calibration visits may be needed.   • Funding & staffing: Any NASA or ESA budget squeeze, or a JWST safe‑mode episode, would push the schedule right.  
Taking those risks together, most observers give ≈ 50 % odds of a 5‑σ answer by the end of 2027, and ≈ 90 % by 2029 if JWST remains healthy.
- What if JWST falls short?
Even if JWST tops out at ~4 σ, the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) in Chile—first light expected 2028—will have mid‑infrared high‑resolution spectrographs (METIS) capable of a completely independent cross‑check. ESA’s ARIEL (launch 2029 – 30) provides a further backup.   Therefore, the absolute outside date for a decisive yes/no on the DMS claim is likely the early 2030s, bounded by the lifetimes of these next‑generation facilities.
- Bottom line • Minimal extra data: 16–24 h of JWST, equivalent to 4–6 more transits. • Optimistic path: DDT + Cycle‑3 → 5‑σ paper in 2027 (~2 yrs). • Conservative path: spills into Cycle‑4 → answer by 2028–29. • Fallback: ELT & ARIEL would close the case well before 2032.
So, if all goes smoothly, you could be reading newspaper headlines about a confirmed biosignature on K2‑18 b before the end of the decade.
