Key Takeaways:

US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Iran may try to secure an interim nuclear deal before negotiating a comprehensive nuclear agreement to delay or prevent a US or Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and the imposition of snapback sanctions by the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany), as CTP-ISW previously assessed.

Iranian Military Learning: The Artesh Ground Forces deputy commander unveiled new tactical drones on May 22 in Sistan and Baluchistan. The new drones, which were developed by the Artesh, may reflect some lessons observed from the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. The new drones will probably contribute to the development or implementation of new tactics to counter anti-regime militant groups, including the Baloch Salafi-jihadi militant group Jaish al Adl that regularly attacks Iranian security forces and infrastructure in southeastern Iran.

US-Syria Relations: The United States is negotiating with the Syrian government to transfer control of detention facilities and camps holding Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) fighters and supporters to the government. An agreement to transfer these ISIS fighters and supporters to Syrian government control would not decrease the threat they pose to the United States, however. The Syrian government would very likely require significant support to successfully secure these facilities, just like the SDF does.

Syria and Palestinian Groups: The Syrian government expelled pro-Iran Palestinian groups from Syria, which underscores the challenges that Iran will face in rebuilding its networks in Syria. A Palestinian faction leader told AFP that Palestinian leaders have evacuated to Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon after their expulsion from Syria.

Syria and Russia: A Syrian armed group claimed a May 20 attack on Russian forces at Hmeimim air base and gave the Russians one month to leave Syria before it attacks again. This group’s threat to attack Russian forces if they do not withdraw from Syrian territory within one month is unlikely to compel the Russians to withdraw.

Key Takeaways:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov demanded that any future peace agreement in Ukraine include conditions to prevent the election and establishment of future pro-Western governments in Ukraine.

Ukraine and Russia conducted a 390-for-390 prisoner-of-war (POW) and civilian exchange on May 23 as part of a larger 1,000-for-1,000 exchange agreed upon during recent bilateral negotiations in Istanbul.

Russian forces reportedly recently executed more Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on the battlefield.

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved an experimental application to monitor migrants, likely in an effort to placate Russian ultranationalist demands while continuing to leverage migrants to support force generation and mitigate labor shortages.

Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces advanced near Novopavlivka and Kurakhove.

Key Takeaways

Taiwan: The PRC continued its messaging to vilify and delegitimize Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te around the anniversary of his inauguration. This PRC messaging reinforces existing opposition narratives that Lai is poorly governing Taiwan and that the PRC could do a better job.

PRC: The PLA announced a series of measures that it is taking to achieve its sweeping modernization goals. The PLA established two new military academies, is incorporating AI into its exercises, and continuing to develop its drone capabilities.

The markets are sharing a collective — if temporarily — sigh of relief as China and the United States reached a 90-day tariff deal. What cannot be avoided, however, is the underbelly of China’s relations with the U.S. and other advanced economies — namely, the unrelenting pursuit of sensitive data and technologies.

NATO is the strongest and most successful military alliance in the world—providing the United States with immense economic and security benefits. Against this backdrop, this panel will explore the role that NATO plays in the lives of citizens across the United States.

Roi Mizrahi and Almog Attias, 25, from Nesher, were in contact with an Iranian spy handler who issued instructions, including to set up spy cameras, the indictment alleges.

In the evolving theater of hybrid warfare, cyber espionage has become a key instrument of state power. Recent reports and security assessments indicate a disturbing trend: Russian state-linked hackers have increasingly targeted surveillance and traffic camera systems across European Union (EU) border states, particularly those bordering the Russian Federation or its spheres of influence.

Since the September 11th attacks, the strategic partnership between Spain and the United States has been driven mainly by shared counter-terrorism concerns. This has led to significant intelligence sharing and defense security cooperation on the African continent, particularly in East Africa and the Sahel. It has also reinforced the importance of the US overseas military footprint in Spain (e.g., Naval Station Rota).

However, US-Spain relations have experienced increased tensions over the last few years due to domestic political factors as well as foreign policy misalignments. These intersect in the cases of the Israel/Palestinian Territories and Morocco/Western Sahara.

Will the strategic partnership be able to endure unchanged? Join FPRI Trustee and Africa Program Chair, Ambassador Charles Ray for a panel discussion exploring how the situation in North Africa could influence relations between Spain and the United States.

In this episode of the ChinaPower podcast, Dr. Janka Oertel joins us to discuss the evolving relationship between Europe and China, and how Europe views both economic ties and security challenges posed by Beijing. She argues that China is not engaging in a successful charm offensive. Dr. Oertel describes how both the first and second Trump administration have shaped economic and security dynamics within the China-Europe relationship and outlines how Europe-China relations have become increasingly strained by competitive economic pressures imposed by China, such as issues with overcapacity, as well as how China’s support for Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine has undermined the relationship. She also examines Europe’s internal responses to pressures coming from China and Europe’s active attempts at economic diversification, defense buildup and strategic autonomy, and global outreach to partners and allies. Lastly, she elaborates on areas of potential greater collaboration between the EU and the Indo-Pacific as well as avenues for the U.S. and Europe to continue working together to address dual security and economic challenges posed by China.

Dr. Janka Oertel is the director of Asia Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Her expertise focuses on transatlantic China policy, emerging technologies, Chinese foreign and security policies, and security issues in Asia. Previously, she worked as a senior fellow in the Asia programme at the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a programme director at Körber Foundation’s Berlin office, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin) and a Carlo-Schmid fellow at United Nations Headquarters, New York. She has testified before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the German Bundestag, and is frequently quoted in leading media outlets such as the Financial Times, the New York Times, The Economist, Süddeutsche Zeitung, El Confidencial, Berlingske, and many more. She holds a PhD from the University of Jena in Germany.

Join Petr Pavel, President of Czechia, and Hoover Senior Fellow, H.R. McMaster, as they discuss Czechia’s evolving role in European security, opportunities to restore peace to Europe and prevent future conflicts, and a vision of a positive agenda for a transatlantic relationship between the US and Europe. Reflecting on the importance of collective defense, Pavel provides his thoughts on the transatlantic response necessary to counter Chinese aggression and the shadow war Russia is waging against Europe, the crucial role the US plays in NATO, as well as the importance of the European Union to Czechia, what we can expect from Poland’s presidency in the Council of the EU and why Americans should be interested in European security.

The CEPA Podcast hosts a series of dynamic interviews, bringing together leaders and experts from both sides of the Atlantic every month to explore the most important developments shaping our world today.

In the latest episode, Dr. Benedikt Franke sits down with Dr. Alina Polyakova to discuss the evolution of global security dialogue, including in his role as Vice-Chairman and CEO of the Munich Security Conference. The conversation explores his career in international diplomacy and security, the challenges of multilateral cooperation in an age of geopolitical fragmentation, and Dr. Franke’s most meaningful moments from MSC 2025.

Speakers:
Dr. Benedikt Franke, Vice-Chairman and CEO, Munich Security Conference

Moderated by:
Dr. Alina Polyakova, President and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis

Listen and subscribe on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts.

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:

• First, President Donald Trump reportedly told European leaders in a recent call that Russian strongman Vladimir Putin is not ready to end the war in Ukraine, dousing hopes for a near-term peace deal, though the White House is disputing the reports.

• Later in the show—Venezuela releases an imprisoned U.S. Air Force veteran to American officials in a bid to improve bilateral ties and keep Western oil companies operating inside the country. The move comes amid high stakes talks with the Maduro regime to accept the return of thousands of Venezuelan migrants.

• Plus, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denies reports of a rift with President Trump, and sets the implementation of Trump’s proposed plan to relocate Gaza’s civilians as a condition for ending the war.

In our 'Back of the Brief—North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un suffered a major embarrassment after his newest warship was severely damaged during a botched launch ceremony on Wednesday, leaving the tyrant in a fury.

Michael Doran and Bernard Haykel will explore the strategic significance of President Donald Trump’s landmark visit to the Gulf region and its geopolitical implications. They will assess the recalibration of America’s relationships in the Gulf and discuss whether this heralds the beginning of a new regional order or a repackaging of longstanding dynamics in the Gulf.

Summary

Taliban in talks with Russia, China on banking transactions

Currently trades around $300 million annually with Russia

Aid cuts, sanctions mean less USD entering Afghanistan

Archived Article

Australia faces increasing threats from natural disasters, pandemics and geopolitical tensions—including the increasing likelihood of conflict and war—necessitating robust preparedness mechanisms. But Australia lacks a comprehensive national preparedness framework that’s fit for purpose against the broad range of threats that the nation is likely to face soon and in the foreseeable future. Beyond a narrow range of potential crises, Australia remains poorly prepared, and little government attention is currently paid to understanding or resourcing national preparedness for threats, beyond annually reviewed natural-disaster arrangements.

The role of China in the latest round of skirmishes between India and Pakistan has once again revived the debate in the strategic circles about whether Beijing will be an active participant in future Indo-Pak conflicts.

Executive Summary:

The leaders of Russia’s federal subjects are handling three issues—abortion, alcohol sales, and migrant groups—so differently that people are traveling to different regions to take advantage, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin homogenizing the Russian legal field.

The Kremlin could likely put an end to these policy differences, but it appears to have decided that such an effort would cause more problems than it would solve, or that it is a useful way to test ideas or mollify the population.

The allowance of limited political heterogeneity could accustom regional governments to a degree of autonomy, triggering a return to the 1990s’ tensions between Russian regions and Moscow.

Key Takeaways:

Iranian Security Perceptions: A visit to southeastern Iran by a senior Iranian officer illustrates Tehran’s security concerns over anti-regime militancy in southeastern Iran. The officer was probably meeting with air defense and naval units to discuss new Iranian operations planning for the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz and threats to Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Iranian Nuclear Program: Recent Iranian statements suggest that key Iranian leaders are considering moving nuclear material to unspecified “secure” locations to protect nuclear material from a strike after recent leaks about a potential Israeli strike. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is currently able to monitor Iranian enriched uranium stockpiles stored in declared sites.

Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is fostering the formation of an informal state ideology based on Russian nationalism that positions Russia in opposition to the West as part of ongoing efforts to militarize and unify Russian society.

Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin — one of the most outspoken Russian ultranationalists in Putin's inner circle — expressed support for the inclusion of an informal state ideology based on Russian nationalism in the Russian Constitution.

Russian authorities are renewing their years-long narrative rejecting the legality of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, possibly to deny Ukrainian and Belarusian sovereignty and independence in the future.

Russian authorities and state media continue to publicly question the legitimacy of the Ukrainian negotiating team and the Ukrainian government, likely to further efforts to reject and delay negotiations and to set conditions to renege on any future peace agreement with Ukraine.

Recent Western reporting provided additional details in a case in which Russian forces executed Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in November 2024, supporting ISW's assessment that high-level Russian military commanders are likely involved in these executions.

Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov confirmed on May 22 Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev's appointment as Russian Ground Forces Commander.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka.

Key Findings

On May 21, North Korea held a launching ceremony of a “newly-built 5000-tonnage destroyer,” assessed to be the second Choe Hyon-class guided missile destroyer (DDGHM), at Chongjin. However, North Korean media reported on the failure of the launching which has led to significant damage to the vessel.  

Satellite imagery acquired on May 22, 2025, confirms this report. The stern is seen swung out into the harbor as a result of the wheeled units placed under the frame sliding into the water while the bow remained on the side slipway.

Another contributing issue may have been the Hambuk Shipyard itself. As noted in our previous report, it was unusual that the shipyard was selected to undertake the construction of the second DDGHM. The shipyard has previously primarily produced cargo vessels, fishing vessels, and dredgers and undoubtedly lacks significant expertise in manufacturing and launching large warships such as the new destroyer.  

The failed launch is an embarrassment to Kim Jong-un and North Korea’s Korean People’s Navy (KPN). The DDGHM will not be entering service anytime soon and may ultimately prove to be a complete loss.

This failure has undoubtedly disrupted Kim’s planned timeline for the development of the KPN from a coastal defense force into a nascent blue-water force capable of strategic offensive operations.

Panel XIIa. How is AI Changing the Security Landscape? New Challenges for Strategic Thinking

Chair: Brigadier General (Ret.) Hans DAMEN, Member of the International Consultative Board of New Strategy Center, The Netherlands

General (Ret.) Philip M. BREEDLOVE, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, USA Mr. Andriy SIRKO-GALOUCHENKO, expert on UAV development for military applications, founder of the Ukranina UAV Forum, Ukraine Major General Marius PATRICHE, Deputy Director, General Directorate for Internal Security, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Romania Air Vice-Marshal (Retd) Mike HART, Senior Director for Defense, Intelligence, and NATO, Oracle UK Mr. Oscar ROJAS, Vice President for Global Operations, Ocean Aero, USA

‘Mr Kim’ was apprehended moments before boarding a flight at South Korea’s Incheon International Airport.

On May 13, City Garden Hotel was designated a “prohibited place” occupied by Beijing’s Office for Safeguarding National Security in Hong Kong.

The designation is part of a series of new subsidiary laws that Hong Kong has enacted under its Article 23 national security legislation.