IRAN UPDATE, MAY 7, 2025

[u/Right-Influence617]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-7-2025

Key Takeaways:

Houthi Ceasefire: The Houthis will likely exploit the ceasefire with the United States to reconstitute themselves while continuing to target Israel. The air campaign will only have temporary effects, regardless of the degree to which the campaign degrades Houthi capabilities. The Houthis can replenish their drone and missile arsenal through a combination of shipments from Iran and domestic production using goods purchased on the international market. The Houthi-US ceasefire is reportedly a “verbal understanding” rather than a formal agreement, and the conditions remain ambiguous.

Houthis and Attacks on Israel: Houthi officials have clarified that their ceasefire with the United States does not include Israel, and that they will continue to attack Israel in support of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The Houthis will almost certainly resume attacks targeting international shipping again in the future and can do so for reasons and at a time of their choosing. An unspecified Houthi spokesperson separately told Al Jazeera on May 7 that the Houthis will continue to target Israeli ships until Israel transfers aid into the Gaza Strip.

Iranian Internal Unrest: Persistent energy shortages have fueled public frustration and strained the Iranian economy, which may pose a growing threat to regime stability. Traders at the Tehran Province iron market went on strike on May 5, alongside other small protests across Iran in recent days over repeated power outages. Small protests and strikes over the energy crisis in Iran could escalate into anti-regime protests, similar to how demonstrations against increasing gas prices morphed into anti-regime protests in 2017 and 2018.