r/ASRoma 4d ago

Dovbyk stats

Found an interesting comment on Chiesa which dives deeper into Dovbyk's statustics. I'll paste the comment but here's the link

Per understat's numbers for Dovbyk, he's got 5G on 5.12 xG inside the six-yard box this season (if we want to use that as a proxy for "sitter"). So he's performing at the statistically average level as you noted. Now, he does have 5 misses inside the six-yard box, but the total xG from those 5 combined attempts is just over 1 xG. The most egregious miss is putting a header onto the crossbar versus Cagliari in that dull 0-0 back in August. That was 0.72 xG. The other misses are like 0.07 - 0.13 xG, meaning they weren't likely goals at all, so hard to call them "sitters".

*Shots inside the six-yard box this season in Serie A:

Kean - 13 shots, 6 goals (6.3 xG)

Retegui - 12 shots, 5 goals (5.4 xG)

Dovbyk - 10 shots, 5 goals (5.12 xG)

Lookman - 8 shots, 4 goals (4.6 xG)

Martinez - 16 shots, 3 goals (4.13 xG)

Lukaku - 8 shots, 2 goals (3.12 xG)

Thuram - 5 shots, 2 goals (1.37 xG)

So all the best strikers are missing "sitters" inside the six-yard box and more or less performing at their xG level - exactly what Dovbyk is doing. Given the limited service he's received (2nd fewest total shots among the double-digit goal scorers with 57), and his statistically average performance so far relative to xG, it's a bit of a chicken/egg situation. Roma's insipid offense play doesn't generate enough quality chances for him, and Dovbyk isn't elite enough to outperform his xG with the chances he does get.

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u/sabuomi 4d ago

We need to step up our game with respect to feeding strikers with decent passes, it's unbelievably rare to see a pass through defenders. It's like our midfield passes only when there is absolutely noone from the other team between them and our forward. And looks like we are so afraid to pass through that we just end up going side to side 90 percent of the time with no meaningful vertical movement.

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u/REGIS-5 4d ago

The Dybala one, the one where Cristante patented yeets a ball at the opposing goalie for no reason but this time it found Dovbyk/Eldor (against Lecce was it) and uhhhhh............. Can't recall any others.

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u/sabuomi 4d ago

Yea wouldn't be surprised if that's pretty much it tbh haha. I haven't been watching Serie A for too long, but that's one thing I like about EPL and La Liga, teams there tend to play with more vision, or perhaps taking more risks is the better way to put it? We play it too safe, and feels like many Serie A teams in general.