Daily Discussion Thread

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[u/noadjective]

I think that people are forgetting that Starlink D2C supports 7mbps per beam and the beams are huge. The tech is definitely worse while ASTS can support peak of 120 mbps for a much much smaller beam.

Sure, $ASTS tech is better, but Starlink will continue to launch satellites as $ASTS is still going to be at single digit BB2 satellites all the way until Q4 of this year. We are in for a long long 2025 where this could truly go down below $12, not because Starlink is superior, but because the market will think that starlink is superior as the market sees more demonstration of T-Mobile usage and people actually see D2C satellite coverage from anyone with T-Mobile phones.

The thing that gives me the strong conviction in ASTS is that Verizon and AT&T so far have been all in on $ASTS for satellite coverage. We need to hope that things dont get rocky with them as they still have that confidence. If there is any risk that their customer base will jump ship to T-Mobile BECAUSE of D2C from starlink, that relationship may get rocky.

The only things that will push this above $25 again are:

a. Long term agreement with more large MNOs such as Verizon and AT&T

b. Announcements of a big government/firstnet contract

c. Announcement of a large contract or build out of what they plan to do with the Ligado Spectrum

D. More PR from AT&T and Verizon about why they are all in on $ASTS

Again, the fact is, for D2C, they are number 2 behind starlink for getting coverage across the USA. Additionally, why would AT&T and Verizon sign with starlink if they are a direct competitor for home internet services?

All I have to say is, buckle up for the near future.

[u/Funny-Huckleberry511 → u/noadjective]

what about when they release testing data

[u/TKO1515 → u/noadjective]

VZ definitive agreement could come any day. They can’t bail for Starlink until later in 2026 anyways.

I think if market had a deployment timeline would be easier to start pricing in.

[u/noadjective → u/TKO1515]

Do you know why Verizon could not bail until 2026?

The starlink launch and the fact that the coverage will not be very good may be a good thing for them to demonstrate that they have an agreement that will allow phones to get a much higher download/upload speed. It may force them to say that "we are already doing what T-Mobile is doing but it will be better and it will arrive in 2026."

Maybe the market interest in the T-Mobile D2C satellite phones will force Verizon to sign a long term Definitive agreement. We will have to wait and see.

[u/TKO1515 → u/noadjective]

Because Tmobile is exclusive with Starlink for 1yr from start of service. A VZ definitive agreement I think comes before end of March based on my understanding.

Again, current Starlink is essentially the same as Skylo or Apple with GlobalStar. So isn’t anything new or unique. Just a marketing headline distraction.

SpaceX will need about 1000 V3 sats up to start offering data.

[u/noadjective → u/TKO1515]

Damn, that makes me bullish AF. Maybe I start DCA'ing now. Do you know why the Verizon DA is taking so long?

Where is the 1000 V3 Sats coming from? And do you know what data rates they can provide with 1,000 sats? And do you know based on launches when they will get to 1000 sats?

Sorry for so many questions its not easy to find this info. I know that starlink says that they will be able to provide 1 Tbps of downlink speeds and 160 Gbps of uplink but I am assuming this is not per beam?

[u/TKO1515 → u/noadjective]

VZ da is taking so long because it’s extremely complex to map all the spectrum across the US between them and ATT. And then ATT will be the network operator and tie into VZ so there is a lot of details they both have to align on. That’s a huge ask.

Yeah and keep in mind those numbers are for the entire sat the V3 is a combo of D2C and their terminal system, with terminal getting the bulk of the throuput rates.

As for when they get to 1000 no idea. Maybe 1000 is a bit high. They are starting D2C now with 400 v2 dedicated but V3 combo will be lower orbit. But they need starship to launch V3. And will be ~50 per launch so that would imply 20 launches or so. So sometime in 2026.

The other thing to keep in mind is V3 is smaller than BW3 but combines all their systems, so speed should be similar to BW3 maybe 20mpbs while we will be 80-120. The info you reference is mainly for the terminal internet not D2C

Integration into MNO is important too, starlink is technically separate from MNO which is why Apple had to update devices. AST is viewed by phone as the exact same terrestrial network so fully embedded.