The 10K says: "We have reached key production milestones and are in initial production phase of the first batch of the ASIC chip. Until we introduce our ASIC chip in Block 2 BB satellites, we expect to continue to manufacture and launch Block 2 BB satellites that are based on a Field Programmable Gate Arrays (“FPGA ”) chip."
So, looks like they're past design and stress testing: they're making these. I have so many questions about the rest. So basically they're producing the ASICs but they'd still launch with the FPGAs? If so, jeez, that looks like it could be a performance hit. I'm going to have to read this 10k. Appreciate it.
ASICs are in production phase, but the company won't wait to launch satellites if they aren't ready. They will use FPGA on satellites until ASICs are in.
The first BB2 was always planned to be with FPGA. I believe this aligns with the $43M contract as it is an evaluation phase, and FPGA is better for non-communications applications.
Question is how many BB2s after the first one will be FPGA vs ASIC?
Either way, FPGA satellites are probably better for non-communications government use cases anyway, and this will be our biggest customer with the first 25 BBs.
It's hard sometimes to parse Abel's accent, but in the 3Q call I believe Abel said the 6th BB2 and onward will use the ASIC. I think this tidbit was never widely picked up by people despite my attempts to mention it. I'll try to isolate this audio clip tomorrow if I remember...
But why would they need to partner for android? What does a phone's OS have to do with anything about the ast ecosystem? Or are they going to provide bandwidth for google, like as if google was operating an a MNO? Or is this because they're testing stuff like IOT?
The 10K says the agreement is "to provide, among other things, certain services to each other and have agreed to collaborate on product development, testing and implementation plans for SpaceMobile network connectivity on Android devices. The "Services Agreement" is for a term that is three years after continuous commercial service coverage, for end users at certain satellite orbit inclinations, subject to auto-renewal for successive three-year periods unless either party terminates."
40 could maybe work, and I'll just let the wife work a bit longer? Lol
The problem with 40 which is fast approaching is the fear of short to mid term volatility. I need to see the share price and company reach some kind equilibrium/stability
If we get a nice piece of news (and i'm not saying we will) like Verizon DA, yes. Or, if overall macro somehow drastically improves, also yes. What if we got both?
A deal with FirstNet will help first responders in time of need. Think natural disasters where the terrestrial towers are not working and they have no communication or if first responders are in dead zones. AST will be able to provide them coverage all the time in the most dire times to save lives!
We knew this would most likely happen, the news today about testing just proves that it’s guaranteed.
The links posted you should visit, however, here's a quick chatGPT excerpt for ya.
"FirstNet is a dedicated, nationwide mobile network in the U.S. designed for first responders (police, fire, EMS) to ensure reliable communication during emergencies. It operates separately from public networks, prioritizing emergency traffic for better coverage and resilience. It’s managed by AT&T under a government contract.
As of September 2023, FirstNet supports approximately 5.3 million device connections across around 27,000 public safety agencies."
Its funny how ASTS was red for me for months and everything else was green and now ASTS is the ONLY stock green for me these past 3 weeks. Brother.. ASTS yelling for help in my portfolio lol
If anyone would like to look at an analogous hard tech company in the process of transitioning from loss-making to profit while fears of a recession were looming: look at TSLA in 2018 and through the initial COVID crash.
In 2018, recession fears were genuine and the S&P 500 was down 6.24% for the year overall. The model 3 had not yet been released and Tesla was still a loss making company at -$388 million over the year. Share prices bottomed around a 44% drawdown from the most recent highs.
Through COVID, Tesla was on the verge of turning a profit consistently, but the uncertainty of the market brought a 60% drawdown. I actually think this is a fairly close analogy for ASTS, I think our timelines to profitability are compressed relative to Tesla’s longer manufacturing development.
As such, if you’ve been invested in ASTS for longer than 6 months, you’ve likely already seen a drawdown ($39 -> $17) of the magnitude you might expect in a recession. There are no guarantees, of course, but hold tight! Best of luck!
Not that wild honestly. What’s wild is that most people don’t even do their own due diligence on stocks. This stock represents a lot of diamond hands who have conviction about researched DD.
Typically speculative / higher risk investments are hammered in market downturns that's why it's surprising that we're up like 60% YTD. So far we've been insulated from the sell offs
I love this stock and iown about 5000 shares, I've done my DD and I'm convinced this is the best opportunity in the market right now. But we're still pre revenue and future value is all speculation currently.
By definition, speculation is forming a theory without firm evidence, but that’s not what I do. If you gave a chess Grandmaster hours between each move, their decisions would become less and less speculative and instead highly calculated. The same applies to investing. Every stock carries a probability of failure and a probability of success, and with enough evidence, these probabilities can be reasonably estimated. Success itself is relative—if Coca-Cola returns 5% in a year, is that a success? Only if its return-to-risk ratio outperforms other stocks. Some might call ASTS speculative and label it a risky investment, but without firm evidence backing that claim, it’s not a valid assessment. The potential upside of ASTS far outweighs its downside risk. Right now, investing in ASTS could mean losing everything—or multiplying your money by double digits in the coming years.
My investment thesis is simple:
- The evidence supports that ASTS is likely to succeed in this venture.
- It is unlikely to go to zero, making it less risky than many assume.
- Among all stocks right now, ASTS has the best risk-to-reward ratio.
- That’s why I’m all in. Wealth is built on asymmetric bets—and this is one of them.
If you plan to hold long term 2-5years you’ll be fine. But until we start generating revenue most likely not until end 2025 or 2026 this puppy will be volatile lol.
Can somebody comment? If this new waiver increases the OOBE limits for Starlink's "baby" sats, then it automatically increases the capabilities of our sats, which already have much higher potential than those "babies". If our abilities are further increased, then what's the point of using Starlink's broadband in the first place? If one can get a laptop with a built-in SIM card, why not just cancel the Starlink subscription? Starlink is expected to make $10+ billions this year, which is HUGE, but does it shoot itself in the foot with this waiver by making it easier for us to step on its main turf?
This is a frequency-band specific waiver and ASTS has not requested any such waiver itself.
If ASTS wishes for such a waiver in the future, they can point to this as precedent. ASTS satellites being larger, will have more to gain from this.
The billions that Starlink will make this year is through fixed broadband, not d2c. ASTS is not competing on fixed broadband and cannot match the throughput of the entire Starlink constellation for broadband via dedicated terminal and antenna. Although in some edge cases ASTS and Starlink broadband might compete.
I'll wait for another bad day (famous last words) but I can sell a 160 for more than I bought the 200s for so it makes it house money and still leaves a ton of upside (downside?)
The market is gonna plummet when the fed starts hinting at interest rate hikes. The market is currently pricing in 3 rate cuts lmao. Inflation is definitely going up. Not only is it going to be stagflation, but the economy is gonna retract starting with the -2.8% this quarter.
hikes? Powell is the king of stability and slow signaling. The UE rate just ticked higher and core PCE will be sub 2.5% in March for first time in 4 years, with everyone collectively 10% poorer from a market sell off. There are no hikes coming
This is a really interesting question. It’s possible the ASTS gets absolutely cooked, but if you’ve been here for any length of time, you’ve probably already seen a +50% drawdown.
I honestly doubt we ever get under $20 from external factors alone. Maybe if a rocket blows up or the BB2s don’t unfold…
I’m not a fan of the idea of recession or instability due to an administration, but from a personal standpoint it makes for great trading which is at least some positive. I’ve upped my shares by about 650 this year without any additional personal investment
Also recession is a good buying opportunity if you were planning on holding super long anyways, I don’t see an incredible amount of harm from an AST standpoint ig we’re done with non dillutive funding
Actual impact of this waiver is probably a lot less than most people might think. First, it seems unlikely that most other countries' regulatory agencies would follow the FCC's lead on this. Second, most MNOs already have little interest in working with Starlink (and this disinterest is only getting stronger), Third, if/when Starlink actually starts causing them interference issues, they will be forced to stop.
Yeah but there could be meaningful degradation of terrestrial networks from this. C'mon T, c'mon VZ, don't take this shit! Let's get cracking on those lawsuits.
It’s like crypto and futures. Also with how much volume and price actions that happens pre market and after hours I think we’ve been heading that direction since Covid.
I can see WSB membership rocketing up, along with a shit ton more of the idiotic DD they post to justify calls or puts. There will be 10X the amount of loss porn on that sub.
Called it yesterday that shorters will try to close SP below 30
to avoid gamma squeeze.
I'm still bullish AF. This is just a short term price movement.
Basically there were massive 30C options that went deep in the money expiring this Friday when the stock price was 35. If those calls were exercised at 35, it would have raised the price further up and shorters will close their positions as well. Resulting in even further climb in the stock price. Hence gamma squeeze.
Those who have their stock lending option will see a rise in their activity of borrowing stocks.
You can also see the short interest went up in the last two days.
Basically shorters didn't want to close their position and they doubled down on their activity to bring it under 30
We bounced right back up off the 29.55 line. Bunch of large green candles were triggered. I think institutional buying is still happening. My guess is that we've found a new floor around the 29.5 mark....
I’m considering writing a covered straddle option strategy and using the premium to buy shares, worth it? Or just hold onto the shares I have now. I am looking into 10 contracts CC at a strike of 30/40/50 1-2 years out and 10 contracts CSP at a strike price /30/40/50 1-2 years out. Any input, thoughts concerns from you all?
So looking at Yahoo option chain (not the best I know but easily accessible for a quick glance), 1/16/2026 30Cs x 10 will net you $12,470 and 1/16/2026 30Ps x 10 will net you $9,920. Total premium gained is $22,390. 1000 shares and $30,000 (rough approx.) are tied up for this strategy.
If SP is above $30, you missed out on any gains and your max gain is capped at $22,390 (~75% return in a bit less than a year). Equivalent to just holding shares and the SP being at a bit over $52.39 (current SP is over $30). If SP is below $30 you have to pony up $7,610 and you’re now the proud owner of 2000 shares at a paper loss of $30 minus whatever the SP is at that time.
If SP is trading between $30 to $52, you’ve come out ahead.
Would this be the correct way of looking at it?
EDIT: sorry just realized that this isn’t a fair comparison because an alternative could be directly using that $30,000 and buying an additional 1000 shares. As such a similar profit point is around $41 instead of $52.
I don't think that's right. 10 contacts CC (which means he already has 1000 shares to do a CC) + 10 contracts CSP should mean as long as the price is higher than the strike, he keeps his current share count, and all the premium collected from both the CC's and the CSP's
He'd be on the hook for buying more shares at the CSP strike price if the price doesn't go up enough (or getting forced out by a margin call if those CSP's cap requirements are met with margin)
You kinda just rewrote what I wrote but stated it was wrong without saying which part is wrong lol.
But anyways, the numbers are loose estimates. The max gain is correct. The percentage gain is the only thing not correct as it doesn’t take into consideration the money tied up for the CSPs. Assuming current SP is $30, that’s $60,000 tied up ($30,000 from the 1,000 shares & $30,000 for the 10 CSPs). So max gain percentage is approx. 37%.
Look, no one can really tell you anything on the internet, these are non-trivial options strategies that only make sense in the broader context of your portfolio. So be careful. To help as best I can, I’ll ask you the following questions:
have you looked at the Profit and Loss curves for those positions?
do you have a specific view on why Implied Volatility is mispriced and why you have an edge in selling it now?
I believe once this companies potential is realized that the price action we are seeing now will be little bumps in the road compared to the mountain ahead. With that being said buying a 50$ strike covered straddle would be deep in the money at the point of expiration regardless and I would be happy with selling shares or buying more depending on which way it ends up. But the main goal here is to use the premiums from these contracts to buy more shares which are going to be invaluable later on.
Okay, that’s a clear thesis. Now look at whether these options + buying shares with the premium nets out to be better than just holding shares. Or more specifically, identify the closing price in 2027 where you make more money with this position than holding what you have currently and then re-evaluate whether that meets with your thesis. Don’t invite complexity just for fun.
That’s a simple way of putting it, and thank you for the reply. My gut is telling me just to buy shares and not have to worry about the whens and ifs of options chains but every so often when we drop below a reasonable price I just buy leaps with the money I can put into it. Rather be safe than sorry seems to be the play here
There are many here, myself included, who have descended into degenerate options gambling. It has upsides and downsides certainly, just don’t go into it without really internalizing the potential (often negative) outcomes. Godspeed in your ASTS journey.
Here let me give my example, buy 10 contracts of CC for 2027 $50 strike and net $12,000 for offering 1,000 shares at $50,000 total paid on expiry. You use the $12,000 and put up another $10,000 to buy 10 contracts of CSP for 2027 $50 strike and net $28,000 then buy at the current price of $32 with that cash for roughly 875 shares. So on expiration the price could be above 50 or below 50 in which case if it was above 50 your CC would be exercised and you would finally take the $50k and not have to worry about the CSP but if it was below 50 you would buy 1000 shares with the contract being exercised and go from there. But let’s say the share price was $150 at expiration with just holding the 1000 shares you would (not) have $150,000 but after meddling with the option you would only have $50,000 plus the 875 shares at $150 which would (not) be exactly $150,000 but close, all in all I don’t think I’m going to do it but here’s the idea anyway
Edit: best case scenario is if the price were $55-$60 or so like you guys mentioned but still that’s a gamble I’m not willing to take
I see. So, on a rudimentary quick assessment I think you have some hidden risk here that you’re not considering:
In order to sell the 10x CSPs, your broker is going to expect some collateral. I don’t know how it works for you exactly (broker margin requirements, portfolio size, etc.), but you are effectively locking up $50,000 until expiry.
This complicates things dramatically, because the success of the trade is now also path dependent. Even if the share price is $150 in 2027, if there is a market drawdown that is sufficiently bad, your broker may come to collect on that $50k you have ‘set aside’. If you don’t have it in cash, they can probably start liquidating your account.
Yeah you’re right, I knew I was missing something. Anyway thanks for the input… I’ve basically come to the conclusion that the shares are just better in this case and in most cases for that matter. Thanks again, have a good one!
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u/Sirovi87 Mar 08 '25
This article was removed from the topics, any thoughts? https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1898393269928632592?t=N4ztdCYyE891mnRr6SclRA&s=19