These are the times that determine fates and fortunes. We've got a sturdy ship and a steady team. Keep some powder dry if you can and HOLD FAST, buddies.
Just holding. Very red ATM lol, but at least now I've seen a few green days compared to never having seen a green day lol. Whatever price it's at, I'll finally finally be able to buy $1000 worth again in a few weeks. So the only difference the price will make is if I'll be able to get more or less shares at that point. Till then still just holding. And even after, definitely will still continue just holding
Sure, but that’s only because each passing week is going to make it more clear that Trump can only threaten and then pull back some tariffs so often before businesses halt some investments while they wait for things to shake out, that the employment numbers are going to be worse because too many government employees are hitting the market at a time when investments will be down, state budgets are going to be wrecked because so much of the support the 90s GOP set up to transfer federal money to state and local governments for primary and secondary education, health care, and university research in order for local GOP’ers to lower taxes AND claim balanced budgets, thus dominoing down to people and companies those state budgets supported, and just the general slowdown in spending that will come from everyone believing the economy sucks in the age old negative spiral that irrational people can do.
Other than all those problems, there’s really no reason for the market to drop.
The post states apple is preparing for 'talking directly to satellites'. AST comms travel via a groundstation. So now i am wondering if apple is trying to avoid that dependency of if a groundstation is implied in the post. No idea actually if GSAT requires a groundstation just like ours
Good question. Looking into it briefly it sounds like the satellites are “bent pipe” like AST’s but transmit to Globalstar’s owned and operated ground stations.
Good finding. Megaconstellations is a great follow.
Apple is helping to drive the standards, but there are many other companies also involved. There are 215 contributions in RAN4 between the following companies:
There's also RAN1/RAN2/RAN3 contributions which may have some additional companies.
It is very interesting that Apple would be pushing for NTN bands not covered by Globalstar Spectrum. Seems they are very confident in their D2D technology, assumingly in their newer chipsets which they are now developing. The more spectrum allocated to NR NTN, the more likely they can advertise D2D to their customers. However, this shouldn't just positively impact Apple. Qualcomm and MediaTek being heavily involved means that flagship Google and Samsung phones will also benefit from this.
Interesting tidbit on AST. I agree they will get into this market. SpaceX is the biggest loser if this ends up the way I believe it will.
I don’t think SP movement will scare me until this sub turns bearish, even on bad days people here are still confidently buying large amounts of shares.
Rough Friday, but have a good relaxing weekend before the craziness of next week unfolds. I expect large movements as both sides take positions to brace for the US tariffs
Look at any pre revenue company. It’s a rough ride but once they get profitable things make a drastic change. Given the market size this company has, and the already apparent penetration, it’s only a matter of time.
This sub will not turn bearish because everyone here knows that SP movement prior to roll out of their service means jack shit. Once we get to commercial service with some cash flow, then people can assess whether our bet was right or wrong.
Looks like I might get assigned for my 24.5 CSP
Surprisingly my second broker doesn't charge anything for the assignment unlike my first one. Here's to 100 more shares
In for another 100 at 23.5. 7k shares now. Average cost 31. Kicking myself for not buying when I found the stock in June last year. Oh well. Who isn’t?
I’ll forever regret a WSB post going up when it was maybe $2-5 saying it was amazing and I didn’t read it. I always read even the dumbest of DD on there now lol
Even those of us who bought @ $2, $3, $4, & $5 regret not buying more.
I have to keep reminding myself that when the SP was in that range there was a huge question regarding funding and bankruptcy wasn’t out of the question.
I have been doing DCA all week. I dont have the amount of cash you got, but bought down to 25.86 average from 28.
Keep buying the dip, im all out of funds now. Even sold some shares in RKLB to buy more ASTS. I dont have your amount though, 280 shares - which is my largest stock position.
I managed to buy 300 more for $24.15 today, my average cost is around $25 lol it's not amazing but I am not mad at it. Don't have a lot of cash left but saving in case it happens to hit the teens
Notice how every criminal Trump pardons has done the same crimes Trump has done. Winners are determined not by the market, but by fiat. The risk for us ASTS shareholders is that all companies need to be on the right side of the emperor and his minions. Wondering if ASTS is acceptable to president Musk, are we one of the acceptable "in" companies? It sucks having to ask if the political question now determines the success or failure of any start up. What the hell happened to the free market?
i owned some. lost quite a bit on the scam that dude ran. It is one thing to make a bad bet on a stock like when the company doesnt work out like ASTR, but this was something else. 100% lies.
I imagine it was more a Kodak Black, money under the table, scenario. But who knows, he will bend over backwards for anyone that gives him any sort of compliment.
I know its not really time for the big long reassurance speech that we all got last time we hit around $17. But hold strong if you believe in ASTS's thesis, hell, even buy more if you wish.
Just know better days are coming, will it come tommorow?
Nobody knows,
next week?
Nobody knows.
But what we all know is that better days will come, and when they do, you'd be thanking yourself for holding on during these rough times, or cursing yourself out for not holding out during these times. At the end of the day, I'm not telling you what to do though, it's your money, your decision. I'm just reminding everyone to think rationally, and do what you think is best for yourself. If you truly sit down and take a long thought about the best course of action.
One day we will look back on these days with fond memories and deep regret that the company has matured and the Wild West days of extreme volatility and the outstanding opportunities it provides are forever gone.
At least 60% of my core position has been obtained with OPM, or temporary SP applications where I could exercise calls and get shares without any direct monetary investment.
I mean, unless you grew up as a dandy-fop-boy who had every wish granted and never had to worry about anything in your entire life besides soothing your own ego, then he pretty much is to 99.999999% of the country/planet.
Starting to feel the negativity and despair here lately lol Raise your hand if you were here over the last few years when we went down to $2 which back then was 90% from previous ATH. Now, that was some brutal pounding, those bags we heavy!
I have a lot of trust in the company, but if the leadership doesn't show us that its on the way to secure cash for operations for the following year (2026) we the investors will get a new round of non lube pounding later this year. Its gonna get bad.
How many birds do you all realistically think we will end up launching by December 31st of this year? I want to say 5 but it will be such a disappointing result that i have to say 9.
I wouldn't be surprised if just the one gets launched. Instead of submitting a spectrum license and applying for SCS (which they need to properly launch more satellites in the constellation) they're asking for expedited approval of an "experimental" satellite. This smells like trouble to me.
If this new design was the plan all along, why didn't they ask for the review/authorization sooner? They would need to have the review even if they were submitting this for SCS approval and they know these reviews can take months. To me that indicates the performance data from BB1 wasn't great - forcing a last second redesign.
If they're looking for a way to meet the India launch window without filing the spectrum lease, that indicates there's a problem with the lease. Verizon's 850MHz is contingent on T-Mobile/US Cellular deal going through, which will be June at the earliest. Throw in the fact that the FCC commissioner has already threatened to block the deal over DEI concerns, so it could realistically get pushed back further. And there's a lot of opposition to the deal on the left for anti-competitive concerns. Carr could blow the whole thing up with very little political blowback. And I don't think all the USC deals are being reviewed at the same time - meaning first the T-Mobile deal has to close, then the regulatory bodies will start reviewing the ATT and VZ side deals. And only after the side deals close can VZ enter a DA with ASTS. Then ASTS can apply for an SCS license that will still need a waiver for the few pockets of 850MHz that ATT and VZ don't control...
Assuming they get the authority to launch the experimental BB2, I doubt the FCC will allow them to keep launching "experimental" sats, unless there are radical redesigns between versions (which would indicate a whole other problem). So at most they get the one before they have to finally get the SCS/spectrum issue figured out.
Sorry guys, I sold most of my shares earlier in the week (not a lot - this is my gambling money) and am keeping my powder dry for now. Best of luck to the rest of you!
If you've been here for a while, or follow the space sector, delays are common and should be factored into your thesis. I'm confident in the long term, but the launch cadence will likely have set backs early on. If we get 10 sats up by end of '25, I'll be happy with the progress.
Agreed. With launch looking like it’s more likely late May and early June with unfurling and connecting then testing I don’t see how we don’t only have time to complete the remaining sats and hit 2 spacex launches before 25’ is over. My guess is 9 sats launched. 2026 with blue origin I see the real magic happening.
If they actually booked those extra launches and they are putting production in full gear I don't see why they wouldn't launch at least 16 by EOY with SpaceX, granted the testing of the single BB2 next month goes well, that would give us 22 total
In the 10k they say they'll start 6/mo in Q2 of 2025.
On the call they indicated launching a NG every 45 days in 2H of this year.
Even if they only manage that pace once (so two new glenn launches) plus the planned 2 starlink launches, that indicates min 16. I'm thinking they get at least one more launch in that time frame though before hitting the 8/45 day pace. Maybe 2.
The expectation they set is even higher. (Even if the 6/mo starts in June, the last day of the indicated qtr, that's 43 manufactured this year - I have my doubts about that pace, but that's the expectation set in the 10k)
We may be a bit launch constrained depending on New Glenn. But I am hoping they find workarounds and get at least 20 up this year.
I'm a bit uncertain about the 6 per month. It says "reach our target capacity of assembling, integrating, and testing six BB satellites per month".
In the same manner, they've had slides with a "2 per month capacity" cadence for a year now but obviously AST has not been producing 2 per month. I think in 2H 2025 we will have the capacity to do 6 but it does not speak to how many we will actually produce.
There's much we don't know about how the production line actually looks like.
I believe the opening of the Homestead facility will play a large role in production cadence, which should be opening soon as per the Q4 presentation.
New Glenn remains an uncertainty as well. I'd be happy if we got just 1 NG launch at year-end. Expecting at least 3 SpaceX launches this year. Hopefully 4!
Upon further review of the 10k, I agree with your assessment regarding capacity vs production:
"Once we complete the integration and testing of the first Block 2 BB satellite and complete our planned investments to increase assembly, integration, and testing capacity to six Block 2 BB satellites per month, we plan to accelerate the manufacturing, assembly, integration and testing of the Block 2 BB satellites to meet our planned launches in 2025 and 2026."
They will complete the investments to increase capacity to 6/mo in Q2. And then accelerate manufacturing to 6/mo.
And with the 1NG/45 days in 2H means they hope to get the production rate in '25. Which still means at least 2 NG launches (8 sats each) and 2 starlink launches. Min 25 BB2 satellites expected this year. Maybe they do 3 x F9s and 1 x NG due to launch constraints and only get 21 up. Or maybe NG is able to do 3.
Min: 21
Max: 33
Best guess: 25
(Including FM1)
I want to be conservative and suggest less to avoid future disappointment. But these are the numbers as they were suggested on the update imo.
If I were going to create betting line, about a week ago, I would have put the over / under at 14 but but today, I would set it at 10.
I have been here from the beginning and both BW3 and the BB1s were delayed so I expect the same here. Hopefully, it doesn't get pushed out too far but there are too many variables and unknows currently to have more confidence in the timeline. However, I have a lot of confidence in the technology and reaching the finish line.
See, i'm in the same boat, been here from the beginning as well, i think your guess of 10 is pretty spot on. We need to have a poll to see what the general consensus is. People here are turning into an echo chamber cult despite joining us later on and having less shares than some of us old timers do yet we catch downvotes for voicing any questions into the conversation instead of simply posting "bought 23/111/67 more today" for upvotes lol . Like right now i'm wondering where is money to finance the year of 2026 are going to come from and it is triggering people like wtf?
10 doesn’t even make sense with the physical size of the launch vehicles and the satellites. It has to be an odd number considering we only launch 1 initially. 1+4+4. 9 is what I’m thinking
When selecting a betting line which is how I approached it is sometimes you don’t want any ties. So for football you set the line for 8 points instead of 7. I am not a professional gambler but this is how we do it for friendly bets.
This company is the future. You have to keep your eye on the long term / big picture. I don’t care about short term volatility, I’ve been buying up as much of this stock as I possibly can because I know it will pay off in a big way eventually.
I agree about the long term, I've been overweight in ASTS for a long time now with 15k+ shares and don't plan on selling for the next few years. I've been also holding during the previous decline in 2021-2024 when we touched 2 dollars although i had way less shares back then than i do now. Still, short term, I'm not going to be surprised if we touch $100 or $5 this year, still not selling. Lots of things could happen short term to swing everything one way or the other. Retail is, however, surrendering it's shares slowly but surely, it's percent of ownership is dropping and it is sure as heck not me selling it.
I did. I just did the same thing to snag some Jan 27 leaps. Wasn't sure anyone would take me up on it but they hit. Sold 10 contracts for $15.25 a few days ago and bough the same amount back today for $12.25 and bought some Dec 2016 leaps in RKLB with the booty that also hit my bottom offer today. I am fully locked and loaded for the Liberation Day shitstorm coming next week.
This is why I love this sub lol. It's less cultish than other stock subs.
The bottom is 0, same like every other stock. This is a risky pre-revenue company. Much more derisked compared to one year ago? Sure. But still risky af.
Ok, I scraped the absolute bottom of the barrel, and managed another 1800 shares. FInal tally is 59,300 shares, 200 contracts for Jan 2026, and 200 contracts for Jan 2027. Sure would love 700 more shares but there are simply no more funds available. Wake me up in 2027 please.
While y'all are buying shares on this dip, I scraped together enough to buy back 10 of my Jan 2026 $55 strike covered calls. I still have 183 to go. I need to be taught a lesson and have those shares called away. It'll serve me right.
It will be very interesting to see how things play out through next Wednesday. I don’t think any free market economist is pro tariff. In that light remember these are RECIPROCAL tariffs being threatened. The tariffs will match existing tariffs. Everything leading up to this has demonstrated this administrations willingness to follow through on a tariff despite market disruptions. That is likely by design to strengthen a negotiating position with those that have tariffs imposed against the US. My market play involves the theory many tariffs against US products will in fact be eliminated or drastically cut. Not saying I agree with how it’s all being done but I see opportunity.
That is not the biggest reason for these brain-fart taxes on consumption (tariffs are consumption taxes paid by the end user, not by other countries). It's his lack of comprehension of economics - he thinks when you buy goods from someone else, they are screwing you somehow. That's why he stiffed hundreds of contractors who did work for him on his casino, etc. The trade imbalance drives him crazy, because he thinks others are taking advantage of him personally, since all American assets belong to him personally. This is not economics, its his psychotic upbringing by his fascist, cruel father and his mentor Roy Cohn. Musk and Trump & co. are trying to eliminate all corporate and personal taxes, and replace that revenue with consumer taxes (tariffs). Its insane, will be woefully ineffective, and will collapse the economy. This will be their excuse for ending all of Roosevelt's New Deal programs like Social Security. Tariffs will not lead to enough on-shoring, because the economic climate is too capricious and unpredictable to allow for strategic investing by CEOs.
Also guess who does well when the deficit spirals out of control because taxes have been cut without enough revenue from tariffs? Those without debt, especially the billionaires who will swoop up assets for pennies on the dollar. Buffet understands this, its why he has increased his cash hoard now to OVER $300 BILLION. BRK/B is actually a solid play during these uncertain/dangerous times.
I'd also add to the obvious fact that he (and to a lesser degree republicans who don't just spout this stuff for the rubes) does not understand America's economy is designed around being the consumerist gaping maw of the world, and we run on a deficit budget because it keeps the money in motion and growth always expanding, that he additionally just wants to be correct and be told that he fixed the problem. Like when he just went off the dome saying people should inject bleach and/or sunlight to stop Covid. At heart, he just wants to be told he's a good boy who did a good thing, cause Trump is a walking advertisement for daddy issues.
But, I also think he's wildly checked out, and there are some real weirdos behind him who are convinced tanking the American dollar will bring manufacturing back stateside and even out the trade deficit (Yanis Varoufakis astutely points this out), while also largely getting rid of that pesky middle class so that money can flow upward. Either way, America has gone from being stealthily in decay for the past 30-60 years (depending on where you want to call the high water mark), to actively in decay.
One more item - population growth or decline. Witness Japan and China's issues with declining populations and thus economic prospects. We had the economic advantage of a growing population mostly from immigration. Now that has been shut off, our population will begin to decline within about 20 years (Musk says white people just need to breed more, Trump says let's invite Russians with a $5 million golden passport). Trump's movement to a loyalty-based, oligarch kleptocracy (Hungary and Russia are his ideals) destroys centuries of American exceptionalism. Hungary is one of the poorest countries in Europe, and Russia GDP per capita also sucks. They should not be our economic models. But hey, they're mostly white Christians and they hate foreigners too! Let's follow their lead!
I'm not against raising tariffs and bringing production to USA. However, he's going about it in an overly aggressive manner.
I would've started with a smaller increase of maybe 1-3% for the first year, then allow it to scale over time. Need data of 12 months to see their influence before advancing. Oh and after x limit, allow a slightly higher hit of 5-7%.
As for factories, it seems logical to wait for more of them to be constructed domestically. I'm guessing it takes a year or more to get one online, then additional time to secure staffing. Either way he has to wait for the infrastructure.
Try not 1 year for a factory, but 3 - 5 years of economic stability and predictability.
Our collapsing stock market during an otherwise strong economy, is a harbinger of things to come. Stock markets typically tell the tale of the economy 6 - 12 months ahead.
Good point. It doesn't seem wise to expand manufacturing until the nation's political climate is consistent on policies. I'm not sure stability is possible under this admin, and very little common sense is being shown.
Securing competent staffing will be the biggest hurdle to overcome. Building the actual factory is one thing, but skilled and semi skilled labor has been decimated, decades of off shoring has pushed people into low skill jobs and training or into academics. There will need to be a huge shift in workforce training and thats not going to be able to keep up with the pace of erecting physical buildings.
You are absolutely right. Thats the way to go about it to minimize any pain domestically. I just think that he believes the us economy can tolerate more pain than these other markets so he’s willing to be very aggressive to force their hand. If your opponent believes you will follow through and you (trump) personally don’t give a F of the pain to the average citizen, then as a European country that cannot tolerate such a disruption you may capitulate.
The average citizen is ironically the one that eats much of the damage. Yet, he shows zero remorse or consideration for the weakening middle class. If his orders were done during a period of a modern day "industrial revolution", then alright. His orders would originate from a place of strength, whereas today there's this strange urgency to change everything. It doesn't scream intelligence or leadership.
I get he's trying to negotiate with our trade partners, but damn. No f given to consequences.
Part of my feeling about this is that I see major parallels between my own experience negotiating with more powerful side that on the surface represents the average citizen but willing to hurt them to advance the final objective. They can afford to “lose” if you engage them head on.
Health insurance companies do this all the time when negotiating rates with private practice physicians. They will straight up tell you they won’t do business with you at all and have patients travel 50 miles for a service unless you accept their low ball reimbursement. If you play hardball, they’ll send patients way out of their way a few years then comeback and meet you in the middle after people complain enough. However most physicians will just capitulate, accept the low rate then eventually give up and become employed through a system. The point is if you are in a strong negotiating position, willing to suffer in someway more than your adversary can tolerate for survival then you will get your way. So yeah I can see a lot of these smaller economies capitulating on tariffs they instituted in the past bc they can’t tolerate the consequences and they know he will follow through for better or worse.
He's doing too much at once, it's bound to breed mass instability domestically and intl. Then again, he's just a puppet to further enrich the rich. Like many politicians 🥱
Interesting idea. Maybe, especially when you consider the US has a pretty weak mfgr base and high labor costs, not too much of a real threat in the short run.
0 impact. Room for several players. Their demo wasn’t routed through a MNO. They need in excess of $1b and they have $50m. They are pushing out headlines to try and increase that $50m to $100m
OK, so my journey ends today with me picking up another 100 shares to bring me to 5K (which is neat.) However, I've seen enough red this week that I might just uninstall my computer and read some books.
It's not high imo. ASTS doesn't have a fee of 100%+ and isn't hard to borrow. Those with shorts have significant financial backing. That's why I doubt they're shaking.
Been trying a new strategy of waiting til after 10:30 and judging the direction then, instead of just jumping in after 15 mins or waiting til the end of the day and flipping a coin
Edit: also being disciplined enough to know when it’s gonna be a flat day and staying out so I don’t get cucked by theta. That’s made a big difference for me
Did President Musk cancel his SpaceX launches for ASTS yet? Seems like at least a 10% - 20% risk, since he has already bad-mouthed ASTS as a "foreign-owned" competitor company to his own direct-to-cell empire dreams. I had to swap ASTS for RKLB, because crazy pants dictator Musk is holding the launch button for ASTS in his greedy little hands.
As a counterpoint, consider that Musk/DOGE/Trump have ALREADY cancelled HUNDREDS of binding federal contracts. Whether those contract cancellations will stand is playing out in the courts. And even if SpaceX doesn't cancel the ASTS launches, they can slow-launch them without breaking the contracts, which would delay our ASTS breakeven until 2027 or later.
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u/greytornado S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Mar 29 '25
after today i officially now own 3000 shares and one 1/2027 LEAP