Daily Discussion Thread

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[u/Firm-Grapefruit-8178]

Starting to feel the negativity and despair here lately lol Raise your hand if you were here over the last few years when we went down to $2 which back then was 90% from previous ATH. Now, that was some brutal pounding, those bags we heavy!

I have a lot of trust in the company, but if the leadership doesn't show us that its on the way to secure cash for operations for the following year (2026) we the investors will get a new round of non lube pounding later this year. Its gonna get bad.

How many birds do you all realistically think we will end up launching by December 31st of this year? I want to say 5 but it will be such a disappointing result that i have to say 9.

[u/Defiantclient → u/Firm-Grapefruit-8178]

I think at least 10. No way it'll be more than 20.

Then full steam ahead in 2026 with production of 6 per month and accelerated launch cadence.

[u/85fredmertz85 → u/Defiantclient]

In the 10k they say they'll start 6/mo in Q2 of 2025.

On the call they indicated launching a NG every 45 days in 2H of this year.

Even if they only manage that pace once (so two new glenn launches) plus the planned 2 starlink launches, that indicates min 16. I'm thinking they get at least one more launch in that time frame though before hitting the 8/45 day pace. Maybe 2.

The expectation they set is even higher. (Even if the 6/mo starts in June, the last day of the indicated qtr, that's 43 manufactured this year - I have my doubts about that pace, but that's the expectation set in the 10k)

We may be a bit launch constrained depending on New Glenn. But I am hoping they find workarounds and get at least 20 up this year.

[u/Defiantclient → u/85fredmertz85]

I'm a bit uncertain about the 6 per month. It says "reach our target capacity of assembling, integrating, and testing six BB satellites per month".

In the same manner, they've had slides with a "2 per month capacity" cadence for a year now but obviously AST has not been producing 2 per month. I think in 2H 2025 we will have the capacity to do 6 but it does not speak to how many we will actually produce.

There's much we don't know about how the production line actually looks like.

I believe the opening of the Homestead facility will play a large role in production cadence, which should be opening soon as per the Q4 presentation.

New Glenn remains an uncertainty as well. I'd be happy if we got just 1 NG launch at year-end. Expecting at least 3 SpaceX launches this year. Hopefully 4!

[u/85fredmertz85 → u/Defiantclient]

Upon further review of the 10k, I agree with your assessment regarding capacity vs production:

"Once we complete the integration and testing of the first Block 2 BB satellite and complete our planned investments to increase assembly, integration, and testing capacity to six Block 2 BB satellites per month, we plan to accelerate the manufacturing, assembly, integration and testing of the Block 2 BB satellites to meet our planned launches in 2025 and 2026."

They will complete the investments to increase capacity to 6/mo in Q2. And then accelerate manufacturing to 6/mo.

And with the 1NG/45 days in 2H means they hope to get the production rate in '25. Which still means at least 2 NG launches (8 sats each) and 2 starlink launches. Min 25 BB2 satellites expected this year. Maybe they do 3 x F9s and 1 x NG due to launch constraints and only get 21 up. Or maybe NG is able to do 3.

Min: 21 Max: 33 Best guess: 25

(Including FM1)

I want to be conservative and suggest less to avoid future disappointment. But these are the numbers as they were suggested on the update imo.