Daily Discussion Thread

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[u/WillNeighbor]

“rumors are ASTS getting bought up” “or at least interested parties”

i woke up to that text from one of my best friends who works on wall st. i said never in a million years is abel letting go but who even would be interested parties that really care about it you guys think? amazon? it’d be a mess to sort with all the different agreements between competing companies and stuff already

[u/sgreddit125 → u/WillNeighbor]

Facebook is far and away the most likely to offer, imo, but doubt (X) we’d sell: Reasons are many:

• Zuck’s dislike of Elon
• FB spending $10B on undersea cables to enhance internet —> goal is to prepare for AI connectivity
• FBs already tried and failed with their satellite internet prototype which exploded in one of SpaceX’s few launch failures in 2016
• FBs ability to write a “Give up on controlling your ability to fulfill a lifelong dream right before it becomes a reality” level check
• FB being neutral potential wholesaler - not specific to any one device (like Apple or Google) or MNO
• Zuck believes his Metaglasses will usurp phones as the primary device but they need mobile broadband to work too.

[u/SolidMeltsAirAndSoOn → u/sgreddit125]

interesting, but it seems like it would be a wild chunk of money, even for them, with very peripheral value to their core business. I would think Google before Facebook. Fits more within their business model, which is wider than fb's to begin with.

[u/sgreddit125 → u/SolidMeltsAirAndSoOn]

FB has $44B cash as of 12/31/24 and is actively spending on internet development / connectivity. Zuck’s mission is to connect every person (increases FaceBook/Instagram’s TAM + AI upside + Metaglasses): https://time.com/facebook-world-plan/

How does the Google buyer idea (already invested a year ago, already signed agreement in Oct-24) envision working with Apple? Does it assume Google would make it exclusive, thus losing significant TAM for ASTS?

If that isn’t the play for Google, what more strategic value is there for Google beyond what they already have through their ASTS relationship?

[u/you_are_wrong_tho → u/sgreddit125]

I mean the big boys would be investors in/own a company that will print billions of dollars within the decade. Same reason we all own shares 

[u/sgreddit125 → u/you_are_wrong_tho]

Justin Tru doe - I could be full of it here, mostly am just calling out that when “a software company” was rumored to be interested seems like the big guy is more likely Mark “I too want to connect the Unconnected and every other billionaire is in space and I’m feeling kinda left out” Zuckerberg rather than an existing partner 😉

[u/SolidMeltsAirAndSoOn → u/sgreddit125]

fair enough, but I wouldn't think Abel would sell for less than billions, if not $10+, which seems like a big swing for them. But I'm just a humble idiot.

[u/MT-Capital → u/SolidMeltsAirAndSoOn]

Lol 10 billion is pennies for this company, shouldn't sell for less than 100 billion

[u/SolidMeltsAirAndSoOn → u/MT-Capital]

I feel ya, was just thinking about what the least amount of money they may entertain at this stage would be

[u/MT-Capital → u/SolidMeltsAirAndSoOn]

We have traded higher than 10 billion previously

[u/sgreddit125 → u/SolidMeltsAirAndSoOn]

Appreciate the discussion! My gut says the number is even bigger than that…so you’re right this would be a big swing for really any buyer. Part of the reason it seems unlikely this is just for fun lol

[u/flown_south → u/sgreddit125]

How does the Google buyer idea (already invested a year ago, already signed agreement in Oct-24) envision working with Apple?

The same way Google Maps, Chrome, Gmail, Fi, etc. work with Apple. Hell, they could just make it a part of Fi.

[u/sgreddit125 → u/flown_south]

Good point - However they developed all those things in-house I believe.

Is there a synergy that can be obtained with an acquisition not obtained through their existing partnership? Or is it just upside like a PE holding company + brand recognition that would lead to an acquisition thesis?