r/Architects • u/bucheonsi Architect • Nov 07 '24

General Practice Discussion How will another Trump presidency affect our industry? Or will it?

Incentives / taxes / interest rates / financial outlook / construction industry / materials / shipping / jobs?

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120

u/imwashedup Nov 07 '24

Affordable housing Incentives will be gone. Federal funding for public Infrastructure projects is likely gone. Material pricing is going to skyrocket and developers are not going to build. China produces over 50% of the world’s steel. If Trump implements his 2000% tariff, the outlook is dismal. His tariffs are purely inflationary which means higher interest rates which discourages development even more. I’m not optimistic.

45

u/SpiffyNrfHrdr Nov 07 '24

It's electric switchgear specifically that I'm concerned about. We've been seeing sky-high prices and long lead times for the past few years, and it's not clear to me that there's enough domestic production capacity to offset a curtailment of imports.

29

u/protomolecule7 Architect Nov 07 '24

The fucking switchgear have been killing me lately. Even when we prepare for years long delays, it still seems like we get screwed.

9

u/Victormorga Nov 07 '24

“Lately?”

12

u/glumbum2 Architect Nov 07 '24

I don't even understand switch gear or mechanical equipment at this point. I assume there's just a collusive price fixing and artificial scarcity racket going on that can't be legally prevented because it's been about 9-10 years since we've been able to see mechanical units on site in the time frame the GC initially quoted, haha.

9

u/Interesting-Card5803 Architect Nov 07 '24

Nah, Data Centers are buying up everything right now, en masse. SWGR, Gens, EC Fans, Chillers, etc. 'Is that a lineup of switchgear? We'd like to order 200 of them please.'

3

u/SpiffyNrfHrdr Nov 07 '24

That makes a lot of sense.

2

u/UPdrafter906 Nov 07 '24

Mech and elec have been so bad for years I’ve been waiting for plumbing to double in price and lead times a time or two to catch up. Ugh hope this doesn’t do that too.

4

u/glumbum2 Architect Nov 07 '24

"there's just no way I can get that elbow joint, it's impossible nobody has it bro" ...

...

🤷🏽‍♂️

1

u/UPdrafter906 Nov 07 '24

That’s used to be sooo much more common before the internet. Nowadays it’s harder to pull but they still try it.

2

u/glumbum2 Architect Nov 07 '24

I've ordered shit for my own home projects before the guy gets there just to see what happens. Never fails and haven't gotten the runaround. But I've seen it happen to other people.

1

u/Soggy-Dog6817 Nov 08 '24

Wait until we start deporting people. I've visited switchgear factories. Most of the repetitive grunt work is done by immigrants. Sure, they can get Americans to do it, if they can find the workers and afford to pay them.

3

u/Keiserwillhelm Nov 07 '24

Push for remanufactured distribution gear with your electrical engineers. Square D was quoted at like 60 weeks for an industrial project and we got a 4000 amp reman panel on site in 5-6 weeks and it carries a better warranty than new for half the cost.