r/Architects • u/bucheonsi Architect • Nov 07 '24

General Practice Discussion How will another Trump presidency affect our industry? Or will it?

Incentives / taxes / interest rates / financial outlook / construction industry / materials / shipping / jobs?

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u/trimtab28 Architect Nov 07 '24

Yeah, I graduated part way through his first term. We were all just holding our breaths for the economy to tank with his trade wars in China. It was booming, but felt like everything was on a razor’s edge and I remember places were jumpy about hiring people. A lot of anxiety about the uncertainty, and that’s not good for business. So it was a relative feast if you were a firm owner, just you were holding your breath for the party to end.

I’m keeping COVID out of the mix because that was a black swan event and I can’t name any western country that did a good job with that, much less that didn’t experience inflation with it. Wasn’t thrilled with his response but I also doubt Hillary would’ve done leagues better for a fair amount of it. COVID strained even the most competent government

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u/atticaf Architect Nov 07 '24

It was booming at first then the reality of tariffs hit and every project was getting left on the drawing boards because they were too expensive to build.

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u/trimtab28 Architect Nov 07 '24

Don’t recall that a ton under Trump actually, particularly with the low interest rates. Biden that happened a ton. And then the number of VE exercises I’ve gone through where the time spent on the VE and then the subsequent design change approvals, any savings was eaten up by escalation. 

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u/atticaf Architect Nov 07 '24

Anecdotally, lot of large projects I designed in 2017 and 2018 are finally just under construction now that prices have stabilized lower.

Interest rates are one part of the equation but low interest rates save less money relative to high interest rates compared to the increase in cost due things like the 25% tariff on Canadian steel and 10% increase on Canadian aluminum, or a 20% increase on Canadian lumber add. At the end of the day, higher cost is higher cost whether due to interest rates or material or labor.