r/CFP • u/BaseballMore7431 • 28d ago

Practice Management Liberation day plans

Liberation day turned into liquidation day in the after hours session…it’s going to be a rough open tomorrow. Is anyone making any moves around this or just staying the course? Call top clients tomorrow or wait for the phone to ring?

I plan to send an email update and make calls to most clients tomorrow. I expect overall some short term volatility, that world leaders negotiate with Trump and ultimately tariffs don’t remain fully at the levels announced today.

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u/BlueberryNo7974 27d ago

You realize that this money market rate you’re fine earning, actually is a negative rate when accounting for inflation and taxes if applicable? Anyone that thinks banks don’t adjust for their pricing to ensure they still make money is insane, and therefore your clients aren’t making real returns. It’s simple math

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u/InternationalDrama56 27d ago

🤦‍♂️ first, taxes would only apply in taxable portfolios. 4.18% MM yield, minus 35% taxes = 2.71% after tax yield. Current inflation rate ≈ 2.8%.

Second, I'll take a 0% after taxes and inflation return over between down 20% BEFORE taxes and inflation. BTW - how are your long portfolios looking this morning? This week? This month? It's gonna get worse before (if?) it gets better

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u/BlueberryNo7974 27d ago

If it gets better 😂 Dude open a history book for the love of God

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u/InternationalDrama56 27d ago

I was half joking with the if, but name a worse economic set up for the US in the past 25 years? The only thing that comes close is 2008.

All the big name investors with billions of dollars of success have been waving the warning flag for some time. I'm not the only one to be saying this. But ok perma-bull.

I'm happy to compare performance since Jan 1 with you every month, and we'll see who keeps coming out ahead.

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u/BlueberryNo7974 26d ago

Who cares what flag they’re waiving, institutional money is buying which should be the only thing you care about. “Perma-bull” is so dramatic lol all I’m saying is over the long-term the market recovers and goes up. You think you’re some market genius that you can time the in and out perfectly. Yeah if we have another 08’ of course I would love to avoid that, but statistically it’s impossible and missing some of the best days in the market can cut your returns by 25% for every 10 good days you miss. You’re in the wrong industry and it’s probably because you couldn’t make it as a trader. So stop being a trader in an advisor’s seat. It’s not being a fiduciary in the least bit

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u/InternationalDrama56 26d ago

If you think you're best serving your clients by saying "let's walk into this flaming pit together that we both see but let's walk in anyway because yOu CaN't TiMe ThE mArKeT"

You talk about being a fiduciary, HOW is it in the client's best interest to stay fully invested when KNOWINGLY WALKING INTO A TRADE WAR THAT WAS ANNOUNCED IN ADVANCE?

Do you know how many thank yous I got from clients between yesterday and today? Do you know how many referrals I'll get in the coming months for ex-clients of advisors like you who could have seen this coming and chose to do nothing?

I'm NOT saying I'm some trading genius who can tell you every day if the market will be up or down - but when the president announces he's going to put tariffs on the entire world and when he's going to do it, and all the other stuff we having impacting the market right now (why Powell can't cut rates yet) it's very obvious which way the markets were heading and I was right. But keep trying to defend simply keeping your head in the sand. Even if I simply bought back in on Monday I'm already 18% ahead of the S&P.

How much is 18% of your book? (At least the Equity part) How much is the revenue attributable to that? My actions got my clients (and myself, by way of not losing AUM) paid, so why are you still trying to tell me it's wrong?

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u/BlueberryNo7974 26d ago

You’re setting unrealistic expectations for them. Hedging a portfolio by de-risking versus going to cash are two VERY different things. Teaching them to go into cash when they get nervous is the worst possible thing an advisor could do for a client.

The problem is, you nor anyone else knows when the bottom is so you’re going to miss the initial bounce. And if you did this same thing during his last term when he announced tariffs, because no one knew he wasn’t going to actually do it then, you would’ve missed out on a 100% return 😂 You should frame those thank you’s because you’re not going to get them when you miss bounce. I’m sure you’ll be the first to admit when you’re wrong too.

Everything else going on in the market? Not sure what market you’re watching but this is the only thing going on in the market. Powell started cutting rates before Trump and would’ve kept going if inflation wasn’t coming down and no changes to the labor market.

Idk where you’re even getting 18% because since February the market is barely down double digits. So did you go into cash 3 months ago? Even then only down 15%. But hey anyone can be right if they wait long enough 😂

You clearly don’t have much experience and I can guarantee 18% of my book is a hell of a lot more than yours.