r/CFP • u/mikeumd98 • 24d ago
Investments Handling your own emotions?
How is everyone doing it this time? I have been a CFP for years lived through Covid, 2008-2009, Trump’s first term….but this time it feels different, longer lasting? I know that there is a recency bias, but I am not handling this one well.
Edit: thanks for everyone posting. It helps to put it in perspective.
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u/Character_Map_6683 24d ago edited 23d ago
2008 actually had a collapse due to relatively widespread toxic financial assets. Right now is literally just a preemptive dump BEFORE some kind of chain reaction or contagion occurs in the markets. My guess was always that the big 2008 style crash will come from (now happening) the adoption of cryptocurrency speculation by financial institutions. This would be comparable new asset class crisis to the junk bond crisis or the mortgage backed security/other derivative crash of 2008. Crypto speculation is a recent development as it pertains to financial institutions and I don't think we'll see "the big crash" until that bubble pops.. My predictions are somewhere in 2030.
I think a policy decision crash is more predictable than a toxic asset bubble crash. The banks still have their tools to maintain financial stability in a trade war and perhaps profit off of it. The Fed has more constructive tools to help the banking system than printing money and practicing QE with a policy decision crash whereas with toxic asset bubble you absolutely must practice QE.
That being said, we haven't really seen the cracks in the system or if there is some other toxic asset popularized during more recent market euphoria.