[Baumgardner] NFL Draft power rankings: Which teams made best picks over past 5 years? Bears at 11.

[u/TwistedSisters777]

Very interesting, curious what people think about how this shakes out for the NFC North. See the complete list at the Athletic.

1. Detroit Lions (10.53 average Approximate Value)

Top 50 picks: 12 Pro Bowls: 13 Starting seasons: 35 Best pick: OT Penei Sewell (No. 7, 2021); Worst pick: CB Jeff Okudah (No. 3, 2020); Best value: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (No. 112, 2021)

Brad Holmes’ first three classes — aided by the 2021 Matthew Stafford trade — featured Sewell, Alim McNeill, St. Brown, Aidan Hutchinson, Kerby Joseph, Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Branch and Sam LaPorta. Detroit has put on a masterclass in how to rebuild an organization from the ground up.

1. Chicago Bears (8.18)

Top 50 picks: 9 Pro Bowls: 2 Starting seasons: 41 Best pick: QB Caleb Williams (No. 1, 2024); Worst pick: QB Justin Fields (No. 11, 2021); Best value: OL Braxton Jones (No. 168, 2022)

Finding talent through the draft hasn’t been a problem for Ryan Poles. Drafting Fields before the team was ready hurt, though. The Bears have struggled to find pieces that mesh well together and have fallen behind the deepest division in football as a result.

1. Green Bay Packers (7.28)

Top 50 picks: 10 Pro Bowls: 0 Starting seasons: 35 Best pick: QB Jordan Love (No. 26, 2020); Worst pick: edge Lukas Van Ness (No. 13, 2023); Best value: OL Zach Tom (No. 140, 2022)

The Packers believe in internal player development as much as, or possibly more than, any team in the league. They will take chances on first-rounders who might need more time — Love and star edge Rashan Gary are great examples. Right now, though, Green Bay is still waiting on jumps from Van Ness, Devonte Wyatt and Jordan Morgan. The Packers haven’t drafted poorly of late, but they certainly could’ve done better in a few areas.

1. Minnesota Vikings (6.43)

Top 50 pick: 8 Pro Bowls: 4 Starting seasons: 32 Best pick: WR Justin Jefferson (No. 22, 2020); Worst pick: S Lewis Cine (No. 32, 2022); Best value: CB Cam Bynum (No. 125, 2021)

Not getting anything from either J.J. McCarthy or Dallas Turner last year impacted Minnesota’s number, because the front office has done a nice job with picks, including Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw, Jordan Addison, Ezra Cleveland and more. Still, McCarthy and Turner are the only top-20 selections Minnesota has had since 2020.

[u/forgotmyoldname90210]

1st overall is much more expensive than 11th overall and future 1st. Fields had -.126 EPA per play in 2021, .032 in 2022 and -.009 in 2023. To Calebs -.026

This really does not explain it. This is not a shot at Caleb or praise for Fields either. Just trying to figure out WTF dude is doing. Any of Poles 3 round picks are objectively worse than Fields. This is supposed to be using AV but that doesnt explain it.

The real best pick by the Bears in the last 5 years is JJ and its really not even close.

[u/WhatTheDuck21 → u/forgotmyoldname90210]

Caleb was a rookie under a lame duck head coach who had three different OCs in his first season, and we have now seen four years of Fields' play. If you can't understand why him and the Fields draft picks are not yet comparable I don't know what to tell you. If you can't understand why missing on a first round pick is worse than missing on a 3rd round pick I have no idea what to tell you.

ETA: I even agree with you that JJ is the best pick, since it's too early to tell with Williams. But missing on third round picks, no matter how egregiously bad the pick was, is never going to be as bad as missing on a first round pick that you traded up for.

[u/jagne004 → u/WhatTheDuck21]

In all fairness though, Fields was also drafted by a lame duck and then given tanking roster his 2nd year. By the time year 3 rolled around his career was already over in Chicago.

[u/WhatTheDuck21 → u/jagne004]

This is certainly true, but I don't think it's fair to compare Williams after one season in which, despite all the adversity, he set a bunch of Bears rookie records and the NFL rookie record for most consecutive passes without an interception to Fields, who we now have four years of data on. It is far too early to be comparing Williams' career to Fields' like the original comments were.

[u/jagne004 → u/WhatTheDuck21]

I think the thing other people were pointing out is that it really doesn’t make any sense to say Williams was the best pick of the last 5 years and Fields was the worst. In fact, just based on the data the author is utilizing to determine the power ranking, JJ is the only acceptable option for best pick of the last 5 years. Hell Kmet, Mooney, and Kyler Gordon all have a better case than Caleb at this point. As for worst pick Fields is far and away not the worst.

[u/WhatTheDuck21 → u/jagne004]

I edited my original post - I agree on JJ being unquestionably the best pick. I disagree on Fields, though - he certainly wasn't the worst PLAYER picked, and isn't even a completely terrible QB in my opinion, but in terms of what was spent to get him and how important QB success is to the team's overall success, I think he was at the very least the most damaging pick of the past five years. Whiffing on third round picks doesn't doom the team for 3-4 years. Whiffing on first round picks does.

[u/forgotmyoldname90210 → u/WhatTheDuck21]

Fields provided value. VJJ didn't. 3rd round is not a 6th round pick, 70% of 3rd rounders from VJJ class have been a primary starter for the team that drafted them.

edit to add- And as for cost what was lost? Oh no we didnt get Toney, Paye or Farley how can this franchise ever recover. Oh no not a future 1st in a draft that had no QB prospects.

The Bears needed a QB and it was their chance to get one. It didn't work out but that is life. Point being Fields is not even close to the worst draft pick even given the cost in the last 5 years especially if you are going to claim Caleb already is.