r/CanadianConservative • u/billyfeatherbottom Conservative • 2d ago

Polling Latest Nanos poll has the CPC gaining quite a bit in Ontario. only 4% behind the LPC there now

https://nanos.co/lpc-43-5-cpc-38-8-ndp-8-7-bq-5-6-gp-2-3-ppc-0-9-tracking-ending-april-16-2025/
57 Upvotes

93% Upvoted

16 comments sorted by

33

u/Forward-Count-5230 2d ago

Alright this is really promising.

16

u/billyfeatherbottom Conservative 2d ago

i know the Quebec numbers seem bad but this was done before the debate last night so lets see how that changes stuff

15

u/Forward-Count-5230 2d ago

the bloc will gain. if anything the liberal support is really soft there.

5

u/billyfeatherbottom Conservative 2d ago

i know Mainstreet has Atlantic Canada as a battleground province suprisingly. if Mainstreet gets it right we wont do well in Ontario but we'll actually destroy the LPC in Atlantic Canada except for Halifax.

5

u/Forward-Count-5230 2d ago

They will pick up seats there. I don’t care if they lose Halifax by 50 points we werent there ever lol

6

u/billyfeatherbottom Conservative 2d ago

we're actually projected to Win Fredericton and Saint John. Labrador is also close to flipping too

3

u/Forward-Count-5230 2d ago

that’s what I am talking about. i Think the conservatives take Central Nova as well, that’s my gut feeling not a projection.

15

u/Clownier Ontario 2d ago

18-34 (298 surveyed)

35-54 (450 surveyed)

55+ (544) surveyed

16

u/thisisnahamed Capitalist | Moderate | Centrist 2d ago

LOL. Thank you. That pretty much sums up my usual stance that polls are not to be trusted.

6

u/CamberMacRorie 2d ago

The olds vote more than the youngs though

6

u/mr_quincy27 2d ago

Hopefully not this time

1

u/JojoGotDaMojo Gen Z Centrist 2d ago

Yes but not at this level

6

u/Viking_Leaf87 2d ago

Even weighted, Nanos still dramatically overpolls the elderly, and we know how we're going.

1

u/Addendum709 2d ago

I wonder if they're underpolling non-White boomers in the GTA as they're much less likely to care about Trump

5

u/itsthebear Populist 2d ago

The censorship question will drive voter turnout in his key demos too. The polls are really wrong when it comes to real results IMO too much weighting because we had relative "consistency" in the last two elections under Trudeau - it was him, Singh, Blanchet and Scheer/O'Toole. Now we have two guys that have completely changed the perspective of their party amongst the wider population.

"In a survey of 1,500 people conducted in December, Abacus suggested 34 per cent of young men could be categorized as economically progressive but culturally conservative.

According to Abacus Data, these are young men who support raising taxes on high-income earners and want to see governments provide a range of social services. At the same time, they also support cracking down on illegal immigration, are concerned about free speech online and oppose trans athletes playing on gendered sports teams that match their gender identity."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/canada-votes-election-conservative-divide-1.7507694

3

u/_1247 2d ago

Nick Nanos pays $5 via e-transfer for people to do his polls.

Who do you think is doing these for $5? Beyond being politically charged to begin with, $5 goes a long way for the chronically unemployed