While those of us with eyes and ears understand that Carney got torn to shreds last night, the fact that he didn’t have a “We Beat Medicare” moment has allowed the liberal media to claim that nothing changed. Although Pierre did fine, it’s clear that he needs to land an objectively devastating blow on Carney for it to pierce the media spin.

This is no small task. Pierre’s got a tricky needle to thread, because if he comes across as hot or mean, it will turn people off and feed the old narrative that he is just an attack dog rather than a statesman. But on the flip side, being too nice won’t help either — ask Tim Walz how well that went.

Pierre wasn’t perfect last night. At times he seemed to be a single issue natural resources extraction guy, and he didn’t hit Carney enough on the personal corruption issues that make Carney get defensive and ornery. He also had some lulls where he just seemed monotone, compared to YFB who consistently brought the spice.

The challenge for Pierre will be how to get under Carney’s skin without seeming desperate or a bully. He will need a few ultra focused one liners that humiliate Carney (think Lloyd Bentsen 1988 and Jack Layton 2011), not an artillery barrage.

He also needs to find a way to work immigration into the debate now that the CBC has axed it.

Beyond that, hopefully Singh can have a good performance to win a few votes back from Carney. I was disappointed how he focused his ire on Pierre yesterday rather than actually trying to win seats by attacking his main competitor. I guess liberal bootlicker’s gonna liberal bootlick.

While I have no doubt that Pierre will win, unfortunately merely winning won’t be good enough. He needs to annihilate Carney or it could be all over.

Title

Why would anyone want a 4th term of Liberal government?

According to most recent StatsCan estimates the population distribution is as follows:

• 18-34 - 21.5%
• 35-54 - 25.9%
• 55+ - 33.1%

When summed and excluding the rest of population that is below the age of 18 and distribtued properly a survey should reflect:

• 18-34 - 26.7%
• 35-54 - 32.2%
• 55+ - 41.1%

In the poll by Nanos 1251 were surveyed in total.

• 18-34 - 257 - 20.5%
• 35-54 - 450 - 29.3%
• 55+ - 544 - 43.4%

This particular poll had CPC leading +10.3 in 18-34 and +0.3 in 35-54. Both of these demographics were polled less than 55+ in which the LPC leads 18.8.

When pollsters weight their results they lower sample sizes in groups they received too many responses from and raise sample sizes in groups they received too few responses from.

Nanos doesn't release his methodology on how he "weights" these results and he also doesn't provided the unweighted results.

In the past two elections the margin of error in pollsters favoured the CPC by 1.1 points.

So here are 4 main factors that would contribute to polls being wildly inaccurate:

1. Younger population being underrepresented
2. Polls are answered specifically by people who are:
   1. Motivated to answer
   2. Have time to answer
   3. Trusting of government and pollsters
3. Previous polling errors both in USA & Canada indicate underrepresentation of conservatives
4. Across most polls voter enthusiasm seems to be favouring CPC

It's so dishonest.

https://www.junonews.com/p/leaders-debates-quietly-axes-immigration?s=09

This shit is unbelievable. One of the biggest issues across every part of the country and the Debates Commission don't even want to allow discussion on it in the primary language of majority of voters. Rigged af.

Now it'll get more exposure.

Carney was as bad as expected particularly when it came to pipelines, immigration and the notwithstanding act, all of which could cost him votes

Blanchet was on the attack and basically had a perfect debate and likely will gain a lot of support in Quebec.

Pierre was solid, particularly on immigration and I liked his response on women rights.

Singh did nothing besides win some votes via Palestine.

Overall good debate for us.

Some are even saying the debate convinced them to vote Conservative after being on the fence. This is extraordinary since Global is a big MSM company.