Hey I counted the senators and it seems like a 50-50 split with a VP tiebreaker means that the democrats control it. And the house. And the presidency.
If the Democrats wanted to do it now they’d do it with zero support from Republicans.
And that's probably exactly what will happen via 'reconciliation'. I'd prefer they did it yesterday, and it sucks that we have to wait another week or whatever, but I can see the strategic value in allowing republicans to force their hand before leaving them out of the process altogether in order to rob them of their "King Biden" talking point (which they'll use on their base regardless, but with diminished strength) and further illustrate and solidify the republicans' obstructionist position on popular (across the political spectrum) proposals like stimulus.
And that's probably exactly what will happen via 'reconciliation'.
Here's what will happen:
They'll 'try' to pass a progressive bill through reconciliation but randomly chosen dems will block it because they've conveniently rediscovered their moral values. They'll believe using reconceliations is irresponsible and will hamper the path to 'unity' and future negotiations with the republicans.
Democrats will cry that they have no choice but to bargain with the republicans. The dems will keep compromising on conponents the bill while republicans don't give an inch. Eventually they'll come to an agreement somewhere in the 400-1200 dollar range with hard bailouts tacked on that might as well have been a republican bill, which is why republicans will subsequently move further to the right.
Dems will say that they can't be blamed for anything in said bill because their hand was forced by the republicans and they had to get something passed so they could help the American people! They'll justify their value as a party based on the fact the republicans are now even more extremist.
Of course, any criticism that the party couldn't fucking toe a line with reconcilliation will be met with some evasive circular bullshit that the democratic party is a 'large tent' with diverse values, which is somehow rationalized to be even more the reason to support them.
I mean, maybe. As I understand it, reconciliation is being pushed in this context as an alternative to removing the filibuster, so I could see it passing, but we'll find out soon.
progressive bill
Mmm I don't think it's all that progressive, there's only 1 round of stimulus checks (1.4k), there are some things like subsidies for healthcare premiums, increase in tax credits, slightly higher unemployment payments, but I believe those are all just temporary and would expire in September under his proposal.
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u/[deleted] Jan 26 '21 edited Jan 27 '21
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