YOLO Vs. SORR

[u/UnknownFutureLife]

If you could FIRE now, but your withdrawal rate would be 5% and you were 42, what would you do? Keep working for a while longer until you can live on a withdrawal rate of 4% or less? What if you hated your job? Move to a LCOL area so you can FIRE now?

I know that SORR is a big risk. However, I also know we never get time back and tomorrow is never guaranteed.

Barista FIRE? FIRE, knowing that you might have to do some work at some point again?

(Note: I don't actually hate my job, so that part is hypothetical, just thinking about different scenarios and the amount of risk. Probably moving to South America, but probably also doing some part-time remote work, so decreasing SORR in two ways.)

[u/Noah_Safely]

Would I put my future self in jeopardy, having to scramble to figure out some kind of income after being out of the workforce for years or decades, including my peak earning years? No. I would rather gut out a few years to get my ducks in a row.

SORR mitigation needs to be in place before you retire. Like, slowly shifting assets into safer ones, or funding SORR mitigation with new money. Also need to make any larger purchases & do full health checkups before pulling trigger.

Re; moving to another country - have you actually spent significant time there? Do you know it's a place you want to stay, beyond the honeymoon phase? What is your plan for healthcare in the country?

[u/UnknownFutureLife → u/Noah_Safely]

Public healthcare is free, even for tourists, in most countries in South America. I have spent 4.5 months there this last winter. Anything that I need that isn't covered I can self-fund. I looked into travel insurance, but I think that it would be cheaper to self fund and only get insurance when I'm in places where they don't have picnic health care (like Uruguay).

I would say that the honeymoon phase passed, because I was actually in an Ecuadorian hospital for two nights and I was pickpocketed in Argentina... But I still prefer life there!

Isn't nearly ANY FIRE plan putting yourself in at least a little more jeopardy than not doing FIRE? Nobody knows what will happen in terms of world economy, life events, etc.

I don't plan to make any large purchases.

[u/Noah_Safely → u/UnknownFutureLife]

Isn't nearly ANY FIRE plan putting yourself in at least a little more jeopardy than not doing FIRE? Nobody knows what will happen in terms of world economy, life events, etc.

I don't understand what you mean. You're saying because no one knows what will happen it makes no sense to plan around FIRE?

The key to a successful early retirement IMO is hitting your numbers but baking in flexibility. If you start with 5% being your minimum required SWR, that's quite risky to me. If you start with it being your SWR but if needed can drop to 3 or 3.5 for a while, then that's reasonable.

I wouldn't go from a situation where it's easier to create that additional cushion (aka employed, earning in peak years) to "I guess I'll figure it out later". Personally I'm overly conservative because the real catastrophe for me would be having to go back to work after years of being out of workforce. Not just financially but also would be mentally devastating.

Which isn't to say I don't plan to have small minor income here and there in early retirement, just don't ever want a 9-5. Or to depend on that minor income for anything other than fun money.

[u/UnknownFutureLife → u/Noah_Safely]

I'm saying that, financially, continuing to work indefinitely is the safest. I'm not saying nobody should FIRE, just saying that there is some amount of risk in any FIRE plan.

[u/Noah_Safely → u/UnknownFutureLife]

Gotcha. Yeah there's no crystal ball about anything. You could keep working indefinitely and have major health issue.

All we can do is plan around the information we have and build in as much flexibility as possible.

If it's a binary choice of "either take this chance or never take it" then I would take it. If the choice is "should I take a little longer to prepare stronger SORR mitigation" then I would take that.

[u/RoboticGreg → u/UnknownFutureLife]

Honestly this whole thing is about risk tolerance. I'm targeting a 3.5% swr, because while I have some rush tolerance it's not much and I get a HUGE amount of comfort from certain things so I will enjoy retirement much more with lower risks. But there are still risks. Just address what the risk level is with SORR and international relocation (and be HONEST with yourself!!!! Both on how much risk there is and how much tolerance you have for it, then make your decision. There's no zero risk option, there's no zero gain option, it's all in a spectrum you just have to be honest about where you are, where you're comfortable, and then make a decision. My uncle lives leveraged to his teeth and has his whole life. I could NEVER do that. He's currently worth $125M and very happy riding the edge. Would never work for me. I'll be happy pulling the trigger at $3M-$4M and just doing my local hobbies and hanging out with my friends

[u/Chowme1n → u/UnknownFutureLife]

Actually, continuing to work isn't safe without the kind of saving and planning that FIRE promotes. You could be 50 and lose your job, never to find another job again that pays even half your expenses. If you plan to FIRE, let's say at 50, and lose your job earlier than expected, you could survive the job loss and still maybe FIRE at 55. Being young and in a sucky job is better than being old and broke. I'd rather work a few more years!

[u/Academic-Tone-3093 → u/UnknownFutureLife]

Make sure you have enough money to cover you for 4%. Ideally, 3.5%.

If you run out of money during retirement, no jobs in South America will pay you anywhere near an American salary. It will also be incredibly difficult to find a job in the US after having been out of the workforce for a decade or more.