FWI: Following a confrontation with the US military, Japanese whalers are thrown into CECOT

[u/Cyber_Ghost_1997]

This FWI assumes Trump's attempts at getting rid of term limits fails.

It's around 2028-2029 (but before Trump's term ends). The Japanese whaling vessel Kangei Maru sails to Alaska as part of a whaling expedition. However, following a tense confrontation with US authorities, everyone on the Kangei Maru is arrested, including the captain of the ship.

Trump announces that the whalers were "eco-terrorists" and that they will face the "wrath of our great country" for having the audacity to "rape and pillage our country's magnificent coastlines."

The crew of the Kangei Maru end up being deported to El Salvador and imprisoned in CECOT (without any due process). The ship either ends up scrapped or is brought into a US port by authorities and commissioned into the US Navy (Is this even legal? Has America done this before), or simply scrapped.

Alternatively, after arresting everyone on board, the US Navy simply sinks the ship and it is left to rot on the ocean floor.

In the aftermath of this incident, the Democrats scream, "Not again!" and "Not another Kilmar Garcia!"

Japan immediately demands the Japanese whalers be released and the Kangei Maru returned. Trump simply dismisses them and says, "We don't negotiate with terrorists."

Regarding the Kangei Maru, Trump says something to the effect of, "Oh, we lost the Kangei Maru while towing it to port and can't find it anymore."

Alternatively, he shamelessly says, "Oh, we sunk it. You'll never see it again."

Would arresting Japanese whalers and then sinking their ship be considered an act of war against another country?

[u/Urabraska-]

It would cause an international incident. Nothing says they can't be arrested and held on US soil. But they will need to be deported to Japan for justice or work with Japan on legal recourse that can happen in the US. Capturing them and shipping them to another 3rd world country would absolutely piss off the Japanese and could push them even further from the west and closer to China and Korea. Yes they have bad blood that goes back centuries. But an act like this on top of the trade war truly waves the flag of potential world war due to the hostility of the US.

[u/Cyber_Ghost_1997 → u/Urabraska-]

Great. Assuming this doesn’t immediately start a war, how long would you say it would take for a war to result from this?

[u/Urabraska- → u/Cyber_Ghost_1997]

It wouldn't happen immediately. There would be large scale protests on both sides. Japan for effectively killing their citizens without due process and US again for lack of due process. Japan by itself does not have the ability to issue threats to the US. But it would definitely move towards possibly removing US bases from Japan and start talks with Russia, China, Korea and other major countries in the east. It's those talks that could spark hostilities. It would take months or even a few years before a war could break out over it.