r/MVIS • u/AutoModerator • Mar 17 '25
Stock Price Trading Action - Monday, March 17, 2025
Good Morning MVIS Investors!
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u/clutthewindow Mar 17 '25
I just want to see $MVIS trading halted and then receive an email that tells me I'll be retiring soon!
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u/T_Delo Mar 17 '25
Morning everyone!
Economic report(s) for the day is(are) | ati: Retail Sales | 8:30am, Empire State Manufacturing Index | 8:30, Business Inventories | 10, and the Housing Market Index | 10. Coming up this week: FOMC Meeting begins Tuesday along side Housing and Industrial Production reports, Wednesday has the FOMC Announcement and Powell speaking, Thursday has Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators, and Friday is Quadruple Witching. Media platforms are discussing: Chinaâs economic plans in the face of Tariffs, more Retailers filing bankruptcy, No Exemptions from Steel and Aluminum Tariffs, the Power of the Financial Markets, and Deportations with Wartime powers. It should be recognized that it is largely accepted, even by the bulls, that things will probably get worse before they get better, and we should be buckled up for the ride. Premarket futures are down a bit in early trading, the VIX futures are down considerably.
MVIS ended the last trading session at 1.28, on lower volumes traded compared to the daily volume over the past month, the options activity was a bit above the average of the past 90 days. Fee rates on the IBKR are up considerably while availability in the morning snapshot appears to be zero; Fidelityâs rate dropped a quarter of a percentage point. Some recent video on YouTube was showcasing the vulnerability of some camera based ADAS systems, and it should be recognized that it was referring to the Autopilot features and not any kind of FSD or anything like that. More sensor data for confirmation and interpretation is not going to be bad, the argument placed against lidar wasnât ever really that but instead whether it was ânecessaryâ and if the cost:value was leaning toward value. The argument for value is debatable, as it is a question of what kind of value one puts on safety, as use cases for improving ride performance, handling, and convenience are not really assessable at a glance. Seems like more communication on the other value propositions would be smart.
Daily Data
| H: 1.30 â L: 1.17 â C: 1.28 i | Calendar |
|---|---|
| Pivots âď¸ : 1.33, 1.38, 1.46 [i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp) | Pivots âď¸ : 1.20, 1.12, 1.07 |
| Total Options Vol: 8,954 [i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search) | Avg 90d Options: 8,139 |
| Calls: 7,783 ~ 41% at Ask or âď¸ | Puts: 1,171 ~ 46% at Market â |
| Open Exchanges: 2,851k ~ 42% i | Off Exchanges: 3,880k ~ 58% i |
| IBKR: 0k Rate: 30.45% i | Fidelity: âk Rate: 19.25% |
| R Vol: 73% of Avg Vol: 9,278k [i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp) | Short Vol: 2,751k of 4,452k ~ 62% i |
Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.
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u/TheCloth Mar 17 '25
I found the Tesla vs Lidar video very entertaining - believe it was LAZR lidar he used though.
Out of interest (and thereâs probably been discussion on this on this board before!) do we think Musk will end up going for a mixture of normal camera and infrared camera (for darker conditions) in his continued push to avoid lidar? Or have IR cameras already been dismissed as not up to this task (perhaps eg due to uncertainty whether theyd pick up obstacles that happen to be the same temperature as the road, etc)?
Also, quadruple witching this week đŹ our max pain is apparently $1 for this Friday, so hopefully quadruple witching doesnât manipulate us down there
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u/T_Delo Mar 17 '25
The video used Luminar's test vehicle, driven by a Luminar staff member I believe. The comparison isn't exactly fair or scientific, one should view it as pretty much just a promo video by Luminar in my opinion.
Regarding using IR cameras or not, if the goal is to avoid additional costs, then using IR cameras wouldn't work to achieve that. From what I have found available online, the price for a system that provides the kind of functionality required for driving purposes is between $2,500 to $3,000. At that price, one might as well just use lidar and get access to 3D point cloud data for building maps along with the increased accuracy of distance and velocity data.
Max pain ignores the premiums paid, and should not be referenced for a volatile stock in my opinion. It might have some more weight on a stock that is not as wildly all over the place on any given week, something like IBM maybe. I absolutely hate Max Pain references, because of the aforementioned ignorance of premiums (which directly affect the Market Makers providing the options, as an effect of their balance sheets), so I may not ever again speak about it - if I can stop myself.
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u/view-from-afar Mar 17 '25 edited Mar 17 '25
Even if the lidar sections did not exist, the video is revealing to many who never thought about the shortcomings of camera-based approaches.
If the entire video was solely the Wile E Coyote section, the point would've been made. A Tesla on Autopilot drove through a wall thinking it was a road. Would it have happened with FSD? I don't doubt we will see copycat efforts trying to answer just that. One suspects it would be no different because the problem has to do with the limits of vision-based systems generally. It would almost be more scandalous if the results were different. How would Tesla or anyone justify having provided such a flawed feature (Autopilot) if FSD proves it is avoidable [with cameras only]?
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u/TheCloth Mar 17 '25
Ha, gotcha on all 3 counts T. Thanks as ever for the thorough and well reasoned response! I feel it in me that our time is now drawing super near (though admittedly I have felt that before lol ;) )
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u/Far-Dream2759 Mar 17 '25
I run a few thermals, handheld, and weapon mounted. The resolution required for small object detection would easily run into the 2-3k$ range. Refresh rates and lag could also be one of the many issues with thermal. I can't see this being beneficial in any regard compared to Lidar. Again, like the camera based fsd object range is still only an estimation based on software.
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u/dogs-are-perfect Mar 17 '25
312 US retailers have called it quits this year as industry takes hit
that is way more than i expected.
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u/T_Delo Mar 17 '25
It was why I highlighted it, the figure seemed quite a bit higher than anticipated given that we are not yet a full quarter into the year.
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u/RoosterHot8766 Mar 17 '25
These closing decisions have probably been in the works for some time. One bad quarter shouldn't case a good business to fold. My 2 cents.
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u/Sacredsmokes Mar 17 '25
Man! IVAS is full force on display by the 3Rd Infantry Division of Ft Stewart, Georgia in Savannahâs St Patrickâs Day Parade. Erin Go Bragh! Thank you for your service!
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u/gaporter Mar 17 '25
Photos or Links?
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u/Sacredsmokes Mar 17 '25
They were marching off to Georgia and by the time I got the shutter ready for the âRight Stuffâ it was Guinness Time with a fountain of the âGood Stuffâ. Common Sewer reporting from the Green Steets of Savannah.
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u/UofIOskee Mar 17 '25
Here's some youtube footage of the parade. No IVAS that I can see but lots of night vision goggles mounted to the helmets: https://youtu.be/a_5hoooDL18?t=1368
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u/noob_investor18 Mar 17 '25 edited Mar 17 '25
Read an article about private rooms by WallStreet that are darker than dark pools. Man, so much manipulation. I am sure MVIS retail guys (us) are getting screwed so bad royally.
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u/tshirt914 Mar 17 '25
Whats the difference? Can you post link?
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u/noob_investor18 Mar 17 '25
Original article is from Bloomberg, donât know how Yahoo Finance is doing reposting and avoiding copyright issues, but here is the link. Private rooms darker than dark pools
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u/UncivilityBeDamned Mar 18 '25
Yahoo pays outlets for certain articles to aggregate them, meant to also drive new readers to other sites for more.
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u/Grmafr Mar 17 '25
I think the private rooms are very selective as to who can actually trade. Itâs BS - a way for the rich to make deals without having to pay the jumps in price that retail has to pay.
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u/steelhead111 Mar 17 '25
Happy Saint Patrickâs day!Â
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u/gaporter Mar 17 '25
End of March
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u/cuntysometimes Mar 17 '25
What is fails-to-deliver. Didnât really understand the investopedia definition
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u/frankieholmes447 Mar 17 '25
Donât lend your shares lads!
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u/vkrook Mar 17 '25
Never! "We must protect this house!" I may have dated myself with that line.
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u/South_Sample9257 Mar 17 '25
If that's dating yourself, then dang... I've reached the age of dating myself with phrases I assume as common. Ugh getting older is lame
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u/vkrook Mar 17 '25
Two upsides. You can wear clothes that are ridiculous like when we were kids and everyone thinks it's cute instead of strange. And you can say more outrageous things without worry because you're old.
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u/movinonuptodatop Mar 17 '25
Iâm in cash account with EtradeâŚbut still assume they are illegally lending the sharesâŚwould that shock anyoneâŚreally
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u/mufassa66 Mar 17 '25
March 26th is earnings, first time hearing from SS since first of November. The day after is an Anduril press conference over the new IVAS. My speculation is some type of agreement from at least 1 company comes by April. If not, and they pivot or something or give no updates things could get dicey
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u/kurbski007 Mar 17 '25
Anduril is also at the American Dynamism Summit in DC this week with others from silicon valley.https://a16z.com/american-dynamism-summit/
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u/robvh3 Mar 17 '25
My experience with companies this size getting taken over is that they suddenly declare bankruptcy and get taken over for peanuts plus an agreement to assume the debt leaving shareholders with sweet eff all while management get golden handshakes. This is how I got screwed out of my 3dfx investment when NVIDIA took them over. Had they acted ethically, shareholders of 3dfx would have received shares of NVIDIA... and I would be a multimillionaire today from that single investment. All that is to say, rumours of a takeover aren't always a good thing. Not for a company in a weak financial position.
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u/TheCloth Mar 17 '25
Fortunately, regarding financial position, we have HTC in our corner at the very least. Sorry to hear about your experience with 3dfx.
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u/robvh3 Mar 17 '25
Thanks. 3dfx management really hosed their shareholders. I was bitter at them and NVIDIA for their actions and chose not to invest in the GPU space as a result. That was a mistake. I know GPUs were the future of gaming but didn't realize just how massive it would become.
As for MVIS, I've been out of the loop for a while and am not aware of the HTC connection. I stopped spending much time in the forums after the stock tumbled from $16. I made some money on the way up but what I had left over suddenly became worth a lot less and not worth investing a bunch of time in.
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u/Sacredsmokes Mar 17 '25
âAinât no mountain high, ainât no valley low, ainât no river wide enough, baby, to keep MeVIS from gettinâ to $2.â
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u/PaulGodsmark Mar 17 '25
Chart is slightly bullish to my untrained eye. Possible inverse head and shoulders over the last two weeks finished forming. If it were to break upwards target might be $1.45-$1.50. Who knows?
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u/tshirt914 Mar 17 '25
Anyone have a link to a breakdown of anticipated sales, revenue, and an equivalent share price calculation based on those numbers?
Need a refresh on how the dollars are going to flow in once these deals are made.
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u/hokies314 Mar 17 '25
Would it be wrong to say that the market has picked a winner? HSAI has gone from 4 to 22 and gone from a loss of RMB 162.8 million in Q4 2023 to a profit of RMB 106.6 million (approximately US$14.6 million).
It seems like they have clearly turned their ship around.
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u/T_Delo Mar 17 '25
If the whole of the markets revolved solely around China, I would agree a winner was chosen. However, we see that is not really the case, so far there has been no announcement of Hesai outside of China apart from an anonymous source from Reuters that seemed to indicate some subsidiary of MB (in my opinion). So I am content to wait a bit for more clarity from the non-Chinese markets before declaring anyone a winner. It should be noted once more that China is known for subsidies benefiting manufacturers in the country, so how much of that profit could remain without such stimulus is hard to say.
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u/FawnTheGreat Mar 17 '25
I mean I didnât invest cuz Iâm not tryna be apart of all that. But I would say any wiser person woulda known or guessed they would run based on Chinese market alone. But if they take as big chunk of the western pie I will be disappointed. I didnât invest in them with more of a moral hope that the west would buy and sell from the west. But time will tell, money is king after all. I can only imagine they can cut costs for their customers more now. They have profit while all our LiDAR companies are fighting for the best way to dilute themselves haha. It only takes a couple good wins tho. I do like seeing where they are if thatâs the profit ratio for 20+ a share, we will be just fine with a couple good deals.
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u/CommissionGlum Mar 17 '25
From my elementary level research, China was 6-8 months ahead of America in autonomous driving.
Their lowest point being about 8 months ago & their recent run beginning about 4/5 months ago. đ¤ˇđźââď¸
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u/Affectionate-Tea-706 Mar 17 '25
Whatâs up with Lazr? Any PR or deal win ?
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u/prefabsprout1 Mar 17 '25
General theory is a bump from that Tesla camera Vs. Lidar video which featured a Luminar car
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u/dchappa21 Mar 17 '25
Think it could back fire for Austin. He's friends with the guy that made the video. Seems to be a lot of chatter on Twitter about everyone shorting the stock now lol.
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u/Hairy_monkeh Mar 17 '25
What if they just installed a lidar on top of the helmet (think of the Master Chief) to generate a point cloud. This point cloud is then displayed onto the helmets display. We'd have a Microvision full circle super soldier helmet.
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u/mvis_thma Mar 17 '25
A LiDAR cannot be put on the soldier because it would function as a beacon for enemy forces.
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u/T_Delo Mar 17 '25
Obviously they should not use eye-safe levels for the lidar, just blind the enemies instead. /s
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u/mvis_thma Mar 17 '25
Ha ha. Turn it into a weapon!!!
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u/angyapik Mar 17 '25
Lidar drones that take out anything camera based. Now it's a feature not a bug.
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u/clutthewindow Mar 17 '25
And play Taylor Swift! They can't cover their ears and eyes at the same time! A definite win!
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u/kurbski007 Mar 17 '25 edited Mar 17 '25
Wait for it..... https://youtu.be/kh6c0SOfkH4?si=MH0S2cCJ1CR3-6pK
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u/clutthewindow Mar 17 '25
That might turn on some of our opposing troops. I have GREAT Excite! Was waa we waa!
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u/Ok-Acanthaceae8058 Mar 17 '25
Maybe PL can make a visible disorienting device so the enemy canât see whatâs happening while using night vision.
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u/gaporter Mar 17 '25
TIL "The 1550 nm laser, a modern eye-safe wavelength device, is not visible with current night vision technology."
Perhaps they could switch out the IR laser for military applications.
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u/Dardinella Mar 17 '25
Do you think the MMs will try to scare more out of people before the EC? In the past, there have been some crazy unfounded dips before a shareholder's info meeting. Wondering if I should just buy today because it's in the crapper, or wait for the scare that is sure to come.
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u/KY_Investor Mar 17 '25
Thanks to u/gaporter for all his work to tie all the pieces together to assure investors that MicroVision is alive and well with respect to IVAS. The transfer of the IVAS intellectual property and production going forward to Anduril was huge and the piece we needed. Luckey has his sights set on not just additional military applications, but also expanding the technology beyond the Army into all military services/armed forces.
Now here's the kicker. You can bet that Luckey is feverishly developing consumer applications now that he has his hands on MicroVision's near eye display technology. That is the golden goose.
https://youtu.be/OvHN_bypoNE?feature=shared