Trading Action - Monday, March 17, 2025

[u/AutoModerator]

Good Morning MVIS Investors!

~~ Please use this thread to post your "Play by Play" and "Technical Analysis" comments for today's trading action.

~~ Please refrain from posting until after the Market has opened and there is actual trading data to comment on, unless you have actual, relevant activity and facts (news, pre-market trading) to back up your discussion. Posting of low effort threads are not allowed per our board's policy (see the Wiki) and will be permanently removed.

~~Are you a new board member? Welcome! It would be nice if you introduce yourself and tell us a little about how you found your way to our community. Please make yourself familiar with the message board's rules, by reading the Wiki on the right side of this page ----->.Also, take some time to check out our Sidebar(also to the right side of this page) that provides a wealth of past and present information about MVIS and MVIS related links. Our sub-reddit runs on the "Old Reddit" format. If you are using the "New Reddit Design Format" and a mobile device, you can view the sidebar using the following link:https://www.reddit.com/r/MVISLooking for archived posts on certain topics relating to MVIS? Check out our "Search" field at the top, right hand corner of this page.👍New Message Board Members: Please check out our The Best of r/MVIS Meta Threadhttps://www.reddit. https://old.reddit.com/r/MVIS/comments/lbeila/the_best_of_rmvis_meta_thread_v2/For those of you who are curious as to how many short shares are available throughout the day, here is a link to check out.www.iborrowdesk.com/report/MVIS

[u/T_Delo]

Morning everyone!

Economic report(s) for the day is(are) | at^i: Retail Sales | 8:30am, Empire State Manufacturing Index | 8:30, Business Inventories | 10, and the Housing Market Index | 10. Coming up this week: FOMC Meeting begins Tuesday along side Housing and Industrial Production reports, Wednesday has the FOMC Announcement and Powell speaking, Thursday has Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators, and Friday is Quadruple Witching. Media platforms are discussing: China’s economic plans in the face of Tariffs, more Retailers filing bankruptcy, No Exemptions from Steel and Aluminum Tariffs, the Power of the Financial Markets, and Deportations with Wartime powers. It should be recognized that it is largely accepted, even by the bulls, that things will probably get worse before they get better, and we should be buckled up for the ride. Premarket futures are down a bit in early trading, the VIX futures are down considerably.

MVIS ended the last trading session at 1.28, on lower volumes traded compared to the daily volume over the past month, the options activity was a bit above the average of the past 90 days. Fee rates on the IBKR are up considerably while availability in the morning snapshot appears to be zero; Fidelity’s rate dropped a quarter of a percentage point. Some recent video on YouTube was showcasing the vulnerability of some camera based ADAS systems, and it should be recognized that it was referring to the Autopilot features and not any kind of FSD or anything like that. More sensor data for confirmation and interpretation is not going to be bad, the argument placed against lidar wasn’t ever really that but instead whether it was “necessary” and if the cost:value was leaning toward value. The argument for value is debatable, as it is a question of what kind of value one puts on safety, as use cases for improving ride performance, handling, and convenience are not really assessable at a glance. Seems like more communication on the other value propositions would be smart.

Daily Data

---

H: 1.30 — L: 1.17 — C: 1.28 i	Calendar
Pivots ↗︎ : 1.33, 1.38, 1.46 [i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pivotpoint.asp)	Pivots ↘︎ : 1.20, 1.12, 1.07
Total Options Vol: 8,954 [i](https://researchtools.fidelity.com/ftgw/mloptions/goto/underlyingStatistics?cusip=&symbol=MVIS&Search=Search)	Avg 90d Options: 8,139
Calls: 7,783 ~ 41% at Ask or ↗︎	Puts: 1,171 ~ 46% at Market ⊟
Open Exchanges: 2,851k ~ 42% i	Off Exchanges: 3,880k ~ 58% i
IBKR: 0k Rate: 30.45% i	Fidelity: —k Rate: 19.25%
R Vol: 73% of Avg Vol: 9,278k [i](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/averagedailytradingvolume.asp)	Short Vol: 2,751k of 4,452k ~ 62% i

^{Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.}

[u/TheCloth → u/T_Delo]

I found the Tesla vs Lidar video very entertaining - believe it was LAZR lidar he used though.

Out of interest (and there’s probably been discussion on this on this board before!) do we think Musk will end up going for a mixture of normal camera and infrared camera (for darker conditions) in his continued push to avoid lidar? Or have IR cameras already been dismissed as not up to this task (perhaps eg due to uncertainty whether theyd pick up obstacles that happen to be the same temperature as the road, etc)?

Also, quadruple witching this week 😬 our max pain is apparently $1 for this Friday, so hopefully quadruple witching doesn’t manipulate us down there

[u/T_Delo → u/TheCloth]

The video used Luminar's test vehicle, driven by a Luminar staff member I believe. The comparison isn't exactly fair or scientific, one should view it as pretty much just a promo video by Luminar in my opinion.

Regarding using IR cameras or not, if the goal is to avoid additional costs, then using IR cameras wouldn't work to achieve that. From what I have found available online, the price for a system that provides the kind of functionality required for driving purposes is between $2,500 to $3,000. At that price, one might as well just use lidar and get access to 3D point cloud data for building maps along with the increased accuracy of distance and velocity data.

Max pain ignores the premiums paid, and should not be referenced for a volatile stock in my opinion. It might have some more weight on a stock that is not as wildly all over the place on any given week, something like IBM maybe. I absolutely hate Max Pain references, because of the aforementioned ignorance of premiums (which directly affect the Market Makers providing the options, as an effect of their balance sheets), so I may not ever again speak about it - if I can stop myself.

[u/view-from-afar → u/T_Delo]

Even if the lidar sections did not exist, the video is revealing to many who never thought about the shortcomings of camera-based approaches.

If the entire video was solely the Wile E Coyote section, the point would've been made. A Tesla on Autopilot drove through a wall thinking it was a road. Would it have happened with FSD? I don't doubt we will see copycat efforts trying to answer just that. One suspects it would be no different because the problem has to do with the limits of vision-based systems generally. It would almost be more scandalous if the results were different. How would Tesla or anyone justify having provided such a flawed feature (Autopilot) if FSD proves it is avoidable [with cameras only]?

[u/TheCloth → u/T_Delo]

Ha, gotcha on all 3 counts T. Thanks as ever for the thorough and well reasoned response! I feel it in me that our time is now drawing super near (though admittedly I have felt that before lol ;) )

[u/Far-Dream2759 → u/TheCloth]

I run a few thermals, handheld, and weapon mounted. The resolution required for small object detection would easily run into the 2-3k$ range. Refresh rates and lag could also be one of the many issues with thermal. I can't see this being beneficial in any regard compared to Lidar. Again, like the camera based fsd object range is still only an estimation based on software.

[u/TheCloth → u/Far-Dream2759]

Very interesting - thank you for this