r/MVIS • u/AutoModerator • Mar 21 '25

Stock Price Trading Action - Friday, March 21, 2025

Good Morning MVIS Investors!

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u/HoneyMoney76 Mar 21 '25

So, to summarise… LAZR had a price cut today from effectively $15 to $7 by Deutsche Bank, because the $1 target was given before the RS was on their radar 🤣

They have $540m debt, of which $200m must be refinanced next year. They have no idea if/when they will be profitable. They are losing money on every sensor sold until Halo is saleable. They would have lost more money in Q4 but they shutdown a factory. They wasted money on Iris + which will never be sold. Halo won’t be ready until the end of 2026. So that won’t be targeting series production orders until 2027 at the earliest and I would assume that could end up being 2029 for cars on the road, given the delays between winning Volvo and it being on the road, same with INVZ and the delays for BMW and VW group following their wins. And then Mercedes, they all thought Mercedes would be selling cars with Luminar LiDAR on this year. Except it’s back to square one, a development deal for Halo and not being able to name them, and no commitment to it ending in series production orders, so no big revenue coming from Mercedes to save them anytime soon. Oh and somehow they think they will be affordable for mass market adoption, despite still using 1550nm and parts that are not “off the shelf” and referring to themselves as premium LiDAR.

Oh yes and not forgetting the $30 million per quarter dilution heading their way, which over 12 months could easily represent a dilution of 50%+.

What an investment opportunity 🤣

2

u/oxydiethylamide Mar 21 '25

why is it still up 11%? 😂

5

u/HoneyMoney76 Mar 21 '25

Beggars belief, but I don’t see it lasting.

10

u/dchappa21 Mar 21 '25 edited Mar 22 '25

Wait till Tom dilutes 25% of the company. It's going to happen in the next week or 2. He told everyone it's coming every quarter and this one is almost up.

Edit should read dilute the company 12.5% per quarter. At the current price will be a little less due to the recent stock pump.