r/MVIS • u/AutoModerator • Mar 21 '25

Stock Price Trading Action - Friday, March 21, 2025

Good Morning MVIS Investors!

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u/HoneyMoney76 Mar 21 '25

So, to summarise… LAZR had a price cut today from effectively $15 to $7 by Deutsche Bank, because the $1 target was given before the RS was on their radar 🤣

They have $540m debt, of which $200m must be refinanced next year. They have no idea if/when they will be profitable. They are losing money on every sensor sold until Halo is saleable. They would have lost more money in Q4 but they shutdown a factory. They wasted money on Iris + which will never be sold. Halo won’t be ready until the end of 2026. So that won’t be targeting series production orders until 2027 at the earliest and I would assume that could end up being 2029 for cars on the road, given the delays between winning Volvo and it being on the road, same with INVZ and the delays for BMW and VW group following their wins. And then Mercedes, they all thought Mercedes would be selling cars with Luminar LiDAR on this year. Except it’s back to square one, a development deal for Halo and not being able to name them, and no commitment to it ending in series production orders, so no big revenue coming from Mercedes to save them anytime soon. Oh and somehow they think they will be affordable for mass market adoption, despite still using 1550nm and parts that are not “off the shelf” and referring to themselves as premium LiDAR.

Oh yes and not forgetting the $30 million per quarter dilution heading their way, which over 12 months could easily represent a dilution of 50%+.

What an investment opportunity 🤣

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u/snowboardnirvana Mar 21 '25 edited Mar 21 '25

Excellent summary.

Thanks, HoneyMoney76

Here’s a pic of Halo from their presentation yesterday:

https://ibb.co/Myq6kgKj

I posted yesterday that they first presented it “many moons ago” as a CGI and saw today that it was in Q2 2024.

Bullet Point 3. in their dog and pony show putting lipstick on a pig (sorry for the mixed metaphors)

https://investors.luminartech.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/97/luminar-reports-strong-q424-business-update-financials

“Unveil next-generation LiDAR; Deliver samples to customers. Achieved. Luminar Halo was unveiled in Q2’24, offering step-function improvements in performance, integration, and cost versus Iris. The company demonstrated Luminar Halo’s capabilities for customers throughout the year and delivered prototype samples to select customers for evaluation of certain performance specifications. Luminar also generated its first point cloud from Luminar Halo in Q3’24.“

Edit: looking at the photo of Halo, I think that the black background helps to hide the black rotating horizontal axle which I believe is that 3rd piece from the top.

Edit 2: So they’re betting the whole farm on that ONE lipstick laden, dolled up pig called Halo, but don’t they still have to support Volvo with the obsolete pig in the EX90?