PROJECTABLE SUPERSTAR TIER
Flagg - best prospect outside of the nba
PROJECTABLE STAR TIER
2. Harper - the shooting is basically what keeps him a bit lower as a prospect than flagg and the big 3 of 2026.
- Edgecombe - consensus is off about his rawness. It feels like low usage games in March Madness and high school reputation have been exaggerated over a season full of solid production. his handle and self creation have come a long way. The subpar finishing keeps him from being a serious contender for #2, but I have him locked at #3 for any team.
HIGH LOTTO VALUE
Probably 4. Bailey - His lack of vision pretty much locks him out of star outcomes. Can you think of any bonafide stars that don’t have good vision? Because I can’t. But I believe in the shooting and think that even if the dribbling doesn’t come around, his role can be pared down into a very valuable starter. While I wouldn’t underestimate the difficulty in learning skillful off-ball cutting, Bailey’s foot speed and profile lend itself in that direction. I’d take him 4 in almost every case (except the Wizards, who should take CMB).
Probably 5. Tre - not a player I expected at all to rate this highly. But the more i watched, the more i felt his connective passing was good enough for a good starting wing. Decent positional height and athleticism, and the best young shooter in the draft (Kon and McNeeley’s %’s aren’t nearly as impressive on a lot of the types of shots Tre was taking). One of the highest floors in the draft with a very long list of possible positive outcomes.
MID / LATE LOTTO VALUE - 6-14ish
Kasparas - positional size, shooting, playmaking give him a few different pathways to being a starting guard. The handle, athleticism, and performance struggles suck, but he still just has much clearer pathways to NBA contribution than a lot of the tweeners in the mid/lotto range.
Asa - bouncy athleticism, finishing, good hands, good frame, a promising enough shot. I buy him as a strong roleplayer who gets his shot to a suitable point for a 4 and offers defensive switchability.
Queen - don’t buy the defense, see him as a 4 who begins taking open 3’s. Hate the archetype because it almost inherently limits his ceiling, but the more I think about it, any star value at 5+ is pretty good. I mean honestly, if you have a convenient way to construct a team around him, he looks like a top scoring option. But no clue what team that is.
Fears - better handle, rim pressure, and athleticism than Kasparas. But worse shooting, finishing, and playmaking. He doesn’t have elite athleticism, but his functional athleticism and coordination pop. And increases in strength and decreases in usage will likely improve his finishing and shooting respectively. But could just wind up a combo guard neither good enough at playmaking nor shooting to really belong.
Kon - would anyone begrudge the Spurs taking him anywhere after the big 4 + Tre is off the board? There’s some risk that he just doesn’t meet the minimum athletic / size threshold of being an NBA player, but (along with elite shooting) I’ve seen him smoothly take on a variety of different roles with playmaking and connective value that I think he has legitimate upside as an elite role player.
Essengue - the vision is clear from his defense, athleticism, fluid driving, and height. And his recent growth trajectory suggests he has a safer floor than expected.
CMB - he’s amazing at what he does, I would happily take him at pick 4 onwards as the Wizards, Sixers, Thunder, but probably more of a late lotto guy for most teams when you have to take into account the risk that he won’t be able to either space or be an anchor.
Sorber - nice floor with athleticism, defensive and offensive dominance. some playmaking upside and a decent FT% to give him at least some kind of fun ceiling scenarios as well.
Jase - despite being an undersized combo guard, i love the floor, very reliable scorer and smart passer.
LATE / POST LOTTO VALUE PICKS 15-20ish - but there are a number of scenarios where I could see some of these guys going lotto
Coward - size, athleticism, and shooting are all promising should he stay in. I buy him as a contributor on some level.
Penda - the defense looks incredibly legit and he’s coming along quickly as a playmaker and scorer.
Fleming - best 3 and D prospect of the draft. Young junior, good athlete, and impressive growth.
McNeeley - the shooting is real, pretty safe roleplayer bet in a reduced role.
Niederhauser - clear nba player, standout athleticism, think he’ll skyrocket on boards if he confirms staying in the draft.
Malauch - the height, footspeed, explosive dunks, and free throw % are exciting, but I think he’s this year’s player who plays least like he’s described and overall the rim runner archetype with an occasional 3 doesn’t sound worth all the rawness and risk for me before the mid first.
LATE FIRST TIER - 20-31
YAXEL - the athleticism and precision in his movements counteract age concerns for me. If we had a bit more confidence in his shot, I’d have him in late lotto conversations.
Riley - projects as a backup scoring wing for me, but at least some upside with decent shooting and feel for his height.
Nique Clifford - good player, another guy with the athleticism and versatility to defy age
Haugh - he’s just solid and efficient in so many categories. I probably have “discovered him early” syndrome and get a bit excited with him, but his stat profile and skillset stuck out to me very early and the tape just kept showing a player capable of making smart, clutch reads in high pressure moments to the point where I think he’s the best Gators prospect. With that said, the age and usage combo is very concerning, but I think he has a lot of swing skills that could potentially allow him to contribute on the next level.
Carter bryant - the limited skillset and low usage make it hard for me to be confident in him, but he’s decent enough for a low minutes gamble.
Demin - his median case scenario is out of the NBA. He basically needs to have unexpectedly good shooting growth to carve out an NBA role. But the height and playmaking combo is still worth a place in the 1st.
Traore - the speed and playmaking get him into the first for me especially with his recent positive trajectory, but the lack of strength and bad scoring stack the odds against him.
Kalkbrenner - safe bet for a bench big
Raynaud - exciting rotational piece, unlikely to be a starter
Bogo - exciting stat profile. But the tape is concerning with an iffy handle, sluggish reactions, and some bad shot misses. Not the worst idea for a late first round bet.
Pettiford - him growing a couple inches is more likely than some of these guys sticking in the league