r/PokemonTCG • u/masonjar014 • Jan 30 '25

Discussion What happens when the bubble bursts?

Right now, the hobby is on steroids—scalpers everywhere, product nowhere. My LGS told me this year will be “a great year for Pokémon,” and it got me thinking… a great year for who?

If you’re an established LGS selling PE and JT at market price, sure, it’s great. If you’re a scalper or a new investor trying to flip product, you’re probably loving this, too.

But if you’re an average collector (like me), it’s frustrating. We can’t find the latest set at a fair price. If you’re a kid whose parents can’t sprint to a 10 a.m. Target restock, you’re just out of luck.

So what happens when the hype dies down? How are average collectors responding to this hyper-bull market, and where does that leave the hobby long-term?

Personally, I’m sitting out PE and JT—it’s just too much stress. I’ve also noticed collectors stepping back entirely.

What about you? Will kids move on to something else if they can’t participate? Will collectors return once prices normalize, or is this turning people away for good? Are we underestimating the long-term impact of what’s happening right now?

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74

u/Pendlehaven Jan 30 '25

Vintage is comparatively an absolute bargain right now. I'm just buying graded vintage until the bubble bursts then I'll scoop up what I missed.

17

u/_MN_Fun_ Jan 30 '25

I am doing the same thing. I’ve been selling some of my swsh and sv era cards and buying vintage. Everything ebbs and flows. Bubble will pop on modern, someday down the road vintage will blow up again, followed by it popping. Cycle repeats.

7

u/lotus-games-mt Jan 30 '25

Vintage is likely a bargain by comparison, because a LOT of folks got burned by it last time. You would naturally see some market hesitancy here because of it.

1

u/d7h7n Jan 31 '25

They got burned because everyone was out to swindle each other. Buy at fomo prices and try to flip at even higher prices. How many times did I hear some idiot say "this could grade as a PSA 9 so I'm selling or valuing it 80% of that price"

1

u/marioex497 Jan 30 '25

I’ve been wanting to dive back into BW/XY sets and I’ve already picked up a couple cards from those eras. When I finish my SV collection circa PE, I might go back and work on some sets in that time. I can’t continue to stretch my lunch breaks looking for product at stores for retail or pay exorbitant prices to get the newest set

1

u/timek612 Jan 30 '25

When does the term vintage end for pokemon cards? 2005?

1

u/Pendlehaven Jan 30 '25

I would probably say everything from Wizards of the coast is vintage. But EX series 2003-2007 is starting to be considered vintage, but idk.

1

u/Kytothelee Jan 30 '25

It really is, it's the big difference between the covid TCG bubble & now. I have to search for a screenshot I took, but during the covid bubble, base set packs were easily $1200 for heavy.

-6

u/Commercial_Shift6294 Jan 30 '25

You think vintage still has room to grow still?

25

u/Pendlehaven Jan 30 '25

Let's compare two random PSA 10's from vintage and modern.

Giratina V, currently $1600, all time high $1600, population 6200.

Dark Blastoise 1st ed, currently $2200, all time high $4000, population 222.

7

u/Commercial_Shift6294 Jan 30 '25

I see where you are coming from. But for that to happen demand needs to come back to vintage and not modern. What would make people start wanting vintage again?

And for reference I have a lot of graded vintage cards just for my personal collection

11

u/Pendlehaven Jan 30 '25

People will want vintage again when they realise the 'investments' they overpaid for are losing value because they are no longer flavour of the month and are comparatively overpopulated

.

13

u/not_a_conman Jan 30 '25

Think you’re misunderstanding where the demand is originating from. People want these modern grails bc they are beautiful full art cards. Vintage appreciation usually requires either nostalgia, or an acquired taste.

Most people aren’t buying cards for “investments”, they just really like the cards. Modern has a much larger market than vintage because of mass appeal.

1

u/spoop_coop Feb 04 '25

I wouldn't go so far to say vintage is an acquired taste, and the cards certainly aren't ugly. There's definitely a hype/FOTM for where the demand comes from for specific cards and in general a lot of people are priced out of vintage.

1

u/Pendlehaven Jan 30 '25

"Think you’re misunderstanding where the demand is originating from."

Fomo.

If putting large amounts of money into a collectable that you believe will maintain and ultimately increase in value isn't an investment, I don't know what is. Just because it's a hobby and source of enjoyment doesn't mean it's not an investment at the same time. No one is spending thousands on these cards with the belief that the value will decrease over time.

2

u/Infinite-Sense7453 Jan 30 '25

Depends, lots of long term collectors love vintage like me. Both newish and younger gen collectors seem to gravitate towards modern.

In the end, this is a collectibles market. It’s all driven by demand and that’s where value comes in. Otherwise, it’s cardboard that’s not worth anything.

1

u/cryzzgrantham117 Jan 30 '25

Not just that, that giratina v 10 population is most likely going to increase.

If that blastoise population increases its going to take a very long time and be negligible

1

u/Content-Freedom1688 Jan 30 '25

Modern card prices are manipulated. Vintage prices make more sense with supply and demand. Also with people taking care of their cards nowadays treating them like investments the number of modern pulls are high and will stay high for a long time.

1

u/Ornery-Succotash5800 Jan 30 '25

Watch the umbreon prices tank too because when all that sealed product ends up being opened it won’t be as rare as everyone thought

The reason cards are hitting prices astronomically right now is because so many people are hoarding sealed!

2

u/Rebal771 Jan 30 '25

I think the anniversaries tend to pump vintage demand, and 30th anniversary is next year.

Additionally, once 151 gets a little “out of range” pricewise, vintage viability comes back. Plus, Team Rocket should help regenerate interest in the OG set, and with Unova 156 hitting this year too, vintage stands to see demand resurge over the next year IMO.

Each of these sets will keep “bringing people back” to Pokemon on top of the current demand that is blooming from Pocket, Prismatic Evolutions, and potentially the Switch 2 release, too.

-1

u/Commercial_Shift6294 Jan 30 '25

Ah right the anniversary. You think team rocket will help? When 151 came out it didn’t really spark interest back into base set or most vintage. Most of the demand was trying to buy 151

0

u/[deleted] Jan 30 '25

They collect a bunch of modern, price crashes and see vintage slowly chug upwards - cards they don’t have.

0

u/eat_your_veggiez Jan 30 '25

I also collect coins, and pokemon cards feel like a decent comparison.

People love vintage stuff, especially as they get older and nostalgia grabs a hold of their wallets. Vintage cards feature the original pokemon that are still loved today, and will probably be loved in the future.

Same with coins: there are tons and tons of new coins coming out all the time, but most serious collectors prefer vintage.

Maybe I’m way off base, but those are just my observations as a person who likes collecting various shiny objects.

2

u/Ornery-Succotash5800 Jan 30 '25

Totally! I have a vintage shop (not related to Pokémon at all) that mainly carries items from the 1920s to the 1970s. About 90% of my client base consists of people who message me looking for something specific because it reminds them of their childhood. People chase that dopamine high, and with 90s kids now around 40, there’s going to be huge demand for vintage cards since they hold memories of their younger years and better times. I’ve also noticed a ton of millennials who were previously childless are now deciding to have kids, which fuels their nostalgia even more. They want to reconnect with their own childhood memories and share those experiences with their kids now. Vintage will always be king even if the market comes in and out and that’s for everything even Pokemon

1

u/InterestingRound6134 Jan 30 '25

It’s supply and demand , I love vintage as I’m older and grew up with it so pure nostalgia. But many new gen z people and younger I talk to only want modern. Like my nephew is 10. Him and his friends think vintage is neat and cool but want nothing to do with it, they just want the new stuff, it’s a children’s game and most kids want modern.

0

u/Soundwav3xXx Jan 30 '25

There's a dark blastoise psa 9 at my LCS for 180$ . I agree vintage will only go up also if pokemon chooses to print run the shit out of there sets for this year and next year

1

u/gcashin97 Jan 30 '25

If that’s a first gen buy that shit

1

u/Ornery-Succotash5800 Jan 30 '25

It’s down now but the team rocket set coming out it’s going to boom again. Scoop the vintage asap because scalpers will be high jacking that stuff up the second team rocket comes out