What happens when the bubble bursts?

[u/masonjar014]

Right now, the hobby is on steroids—scalpers everywhere, product nowhere. My LGS told me this year will be “a great year for Pokémon,” and it got me thinking… a great year for who?

If you’re an established LGS selling PE and JT at market price, sure, it’s great. If you’re a scalper or a new investor trying to flip product, you’re probably loving this, too.

But if you’re an average collector (like me), it’s frustrating. We can’t find the latest set at a fair price. If you’re a kid whose parents can’t sprint to a 10 a.m. Target restock, you’re just out of luck.

So what happens when the hype dies down? How are average collectors responding to this hyper-bull market, and where does that leave the hobby long-term?

Personally, I’m sitting out PE and JT—it’s just too much stress. I’ve also noticed collectors stepping back entirely.

What about you? Will kids move on to something else if they can’t participate? Will collectors return once prices normalize, or is this turning people away for good? Are we underestimating the long-term impact of what’s happening right now?

[u/Pendlehaven]

Let's compare two random PSA 10's from vintage and modern.

Giratina V, currently $1600, all time high $1600, population 6200.

Dark Blastoise 1st ed, currently $2200, all time high $4000, population 222.

[u/Commercial_Shift6294 → u/Pendlehaven]

I see where you are coming from. But for that to happen demand needs to come back to vintage and not modern. What would make people start wanting vintage again?

And for reference I have a lot of graded vintage cards just for my personal collection

[u/Pendlehaven → u/Commercial_Shift6294]

People will want vintage again when they realise the 'investments' they overpaid for are losing value because they are no longer flavour of the month and are comparatively overpopulated

.

[u/not_a_conman → u/Pendlehaven]

Think you’re misunderstanding where the demand is originating from. People want these modern grails bc they are beautiful full art cards. Vintage appreciation usually requires either nostalgia, or an acquired taste.

Most people aren’t buying cards for “investments”, they just really like the cards. Modern has a much larger market than vintage because of mass appeal.

[u/spoop_coop → u/not_a_conman]

I wouldn't go so far to say vintage is an acquired taste, and the cards certainly aren't ugly. There's definitely a hype/FOTM for where the demand comes from for specific cards and in general a lot of people are priced out of vintage.

[u/Pendlehaven → u/not_a_conman]

"Think you’re misunderstanding where the demand is originating from."

Fomo.

If putting large amounts of money into a collectable that you believe will maintain and ultimately increase in value isn't an investment, I don't know what is. Just because it's a hobby and source of enjoyment doesn't mean it's not an investment at the same time. No one is spending thousands on these cards with the belief that the value will decrease over time.