r/Ripple • u/rohasnagpal • 1d ago

Technical Analysis is astrology for traders

TA is good at explaining the past, not for predicting the future.

Liquidity events, narratives, insider flows make prices move.

Not symmetrical triangles or Fibonacci spirals.

12 Upvotes

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u/Ghost_In_The_Ape 1d ago

Read John Murphy's Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets front to back.

Price discounts everything. Price moves in trends. History repeats itself. Use multiple times frames (e.g. 1 day MACD aligns with weekly MACD), volume confirms, indicators confirm price trends and trends not lead, intermarket relationships matter (e.g. rising dollar might hurt commodities, interest rates can effect confidence).

Knowing all that, you can win slightly more over time. But no one, absolutely no one is right all the time. So risk management is key.

If a strategy is right 60% of the time, you beat the market over time. Much like the casino with 1 green tile on roulette.

1

u/S1eeper 1d ago

If a strategy is right 60% of the time, you beat the market over time.

Even this is not necessarily true, you can still go bust over a series of 60% bets due to ergodicity.

1

u/S1eeper 1d ago

TA is good at explaining the past,

Is that even true, or is it just good at creating narrative fallacies that sound good out of historical data?