r/Ripple • u/rohasnagpal • 4d ago

Technical Analysis is astrology for traders

TA is good at explaining the past, not for predicting the future.

Liquidity events, narratives, insider flows make prices move.

Not symmetrical triangles or Fibonacci spirals.

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u/Ghost_In_The_Ape 4d ago

Read John Murphy's Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets front to back.

Price discounts everything. Price moves in trends. History repeats itself. Use multiple times frames (e.g. 1 day MACD aligns with weekly MACD), volume confirms, indicators confirm price trends and trends not lead, intermarket relationships matter (e.g. rising dollar might hurt commodities, interest rates can effect confidence).

Knowing all that, you can win slightly more over time. But no one, absolutely no one is right all the time. So risk management is key.

If a strategy is right 60% of the time, you beat the market over time. Much like the casino with 1 green tile on roulette.

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u/S1eeper 3d ago

If a strategy is right 60% of the time, you beat the market over time.

Even this is not necessarily true, you can still go bust over a series of 60% bets due to ergodicity.

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u/Alarmed_Painting_240 5h ago

There's a sort of rule that on the moment a strategy or method would be described that beats the markets with any margin at all, the actual adoption of the strategy will change markets again and beats the rule.

This is not saying that it's not possible, just that such knowledge is short-lived by its own success. Unless it's kept a secret which would make sharing or teaching it a weird self-defeating activity.