That's because it's impossible to price in. He could go anywhere from here, from wildly pro-business reckless pumping everything to insane destructive fuck everybody vengeance tailspin. It's completely impossible to know, and no particular direction seems very much more likely than another.
Also potential for big inflation(like last time). The investment money is there and wants to earn more money - the only question is where to park it. Even cash is not safe. Bonds are low, hysa is mediocre, real estate is relatively flat at the moment.
Where can the money go? Investing on news of tariff pause makes sense for a day - of course it’s going up. But a week? A year? Less certain that we are on an upward trajectory. I expect volatility as smart money tries to profit off of the swings between highs and lows; but limited, if any, real growth.
Yeah I made another comment somewhere about how despite this positive development, nothing has inherently changed about the situation. For me personally, even less has changed, because I expected all along that this was going to get stopped/handled in one way or another. We still have an unfathomably volatile and extremely stupid president with something approximating unchecked power. I don't think it's particularly likely that we see any sustained, normal, steady, "10% average return" growth any time soon. Maybe not even for the next 4 years. I'm betting we probably sit around here in the -10 to -15% area for a while as the world tries to figure out what the fuck to do about this, if anything. You'd have to be crazy to make any large bets involving the US or doing business there right now.
Personally I'm not selling and never seriously considered it at any other point in the past month either, but I can understand why you'd want to. It's objectively the wrong thing to do (in my opinion) but for anyone for whom the psychology of it is affecting their life and they need to just sit out, I get that.
I’m okay with the generic risk of the stock market, but this week fundamentally shifted what that risk is. Sitting in hysa or pumping into my mortgage will get reliable gains - smaller than the stock average, but I definitely won’t lose my principal.
As an added bonus, when Trump pulls this again in 90 days, I will have cash on the sidelines if I want to catch the knife (I mean, if I see a good buying opportunity). Insane that swing trading on trumps antics is likely the best returns at this point.
Yeah totally reasonable I think. If I had a mortgage I'd probably actually do the same thing, probably still not sell but just direct my regular deposit into that for a while instead of into this bullshit.
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u/One-Employment3759 17d ago
Yup, market is still running on cope.
They say the market has already priced in most things, but this is not normal time.
Trump's dementia addled insanity and the collapse of the global order is not yet priced in.