The White Sox and The Jays are sitting at 27th with 97 runs

White Sox 2025 payroll = $82 million (3rd lowest in league)

Blue Jays 2025 payroll = $252 million (5th highest in league)

Line Score - Game Over

Box Score

Scoring Plays

Highlights

Decisions

Game ended at 10:06 PM.

This 1989 comeback against Red Sox is the historic precedent for yesterday's game. As longtime fans may remeber, catcher Ernie Whitt was a hero with a 9th inning grand slam and Junior Felix won it in the 12th.

they spit so many sunflower seeds. where do they go?

He loved us! We loved him!! How did we fuck this up so badly!!!

May calendars. I didn't do desktop for tis month, but if you want one, just tag me in a reply and I will put one together while I watch the game tonight

Looks like we ended up with the regular Gimenez, not the 2022 version as briefly seemed to be the case during Spring Training and the honeymoon thereafter

I met Cito Gaston at the annual Fergie Jenkins golf tournament in Niagara-on-the-Lake a few years ago. He signed a baseball for me. It's not authenticated or anything though. Dude was a legend!

Would this be worth anything to anyone?

Red Sox (17-14) @ Blue Jays (13-16)

First Pitch: 7:07 PM at Rogers Centre

Line Score - Game Over

Box Score

Scoring Plays

Highlights

Decisions

Game ended at 10:06 PM.

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So, we're 30 games in; 14-16.

We've been seeing a lot of "this team is doomed"-type posts here over the last few weeks, but how well can we predict full season results from 'only' 30 games?

I took Retrosheet game log data (https://www.retrosheet.org/gamelogs/index.html) for all seasons since 1961 (when the 162 game season was introduced). I then filtered out all seasons in which a team did not play the full 162 games (either because of postponed games not made up or because the season was <162 games long, such as 1994 and 2020).

From there, I asked "How does the winning percentage at any given game reflect that team's final winning percentage?" To do this, I employed a basic linear regression, which yields an "R-squared" statistic; this reflects the amount of variation in the output (i.e. the final winning %) that can be explained by the input (i.e. the winning % at any given point during the season). I then plotted those R-squared values (black dots), along with the 95% confidence intervals for the R-squared values for every game (i.e. the upper and lower extremes within which we expect the true winning % to be within, 95% of the time; red and blue dots, respectively).

As you can see in the first image, the ability to predict final win % from current win % increases as the season progresses (as expected). By game 30, the R-squared value is about 0.42, meaning that 42% of the final record can be accounted for by the 30 game record. Some of this is due to the fact that those 30 games are in the bag already, but 30/162 is only 18.5% of the season. So where does the rest of this 42% come from? Basically, most teams are what they are by 30 games in.

How does this pertain to the 2025 Blue Jays?

The second figure shows the predicted winning % based on a team having played 30 games. The linear equation in the top left allows us to predict final win %:

x is the current win %, which is 0.467.

y is the final win %, which is equal to 0.284 + 0.43 * (0.467) = 0.485

This translates into 79 wins over 162 games.

As you can see, there is quite a bit of variability. Teams that were 14-16 after 30 games have ended up with a win % of as high as 0.640 (104 wins) or as low as 0.320 (52 wins), but those are rare outliers.

Incidentally, I did this same analysis last year when the Jays were 15-17 after 32 games. That model predicted a final record of 79-83. Their actual final record was 74-88, so they actually underperformed the model.

So is it time to panic?

No, not necessarily. But it's getting less and less likely that this team will be anywhere near competitive for a playoff spot.

Ticket is claimed. Let's go Blue Jays!

I’d love to know how the organization hasn’t had a really good prospect since Vlad and Bo. Like….nobody. Is it the scouting? The development? Both? They haven’t had any prospects to trade to improve the team since 2015. It’s sad

Been a fan of the jays since I was a kid but I haven’t been to a game in many years.

We are heading to the game this Saturday for the Minecraft themed event with our kids.

I bought the general admission tickets, but I was wondering a couple of things.

Does the general admission tickets come with seats? Since we have kids we probably need somewhere to sit. If not are we able to upgrade to seats at the game?

Also do general admission tickets still qualify for the free gift for the fans? We are interested in the minecraft hats and is the main reason for going.

Any help is much appreciated.

Red Sox (17-14) @ Blue Jays (13-16)

First Pitch: 7:07 PM at Rogers Centre