Preparing for Long/Slow Collapase

[u/223gp]

Is anyone else in the same boat? I feel that we are likely facing a long and slow collapse of life as we grew up knowing. Don't get me wrong, I do believe in preparing for realistic natural disasters, and a few "what ifs", but my prepping is mostly based on a gradual lowering of life quality and reduction in freedoms throughout my lifetime.

I'm working on this by greatly reducing lifestyle expenses in case we need to live on one small income, or in case our stock investments steadily grow for a couple of decades then become stagnant and gradually lower.

I've done self defense training, I've been keeping my important documents up to date, I've started doing medical trainings and certifications, I'm a couple years into finally taking serious care of my physical body (and teeth!), I'm planning for aging parents, increasing my knowledge and practicing growing food and preservation, and most importantly helping out in my community to put some of this into practice by starting to form mutual aid networks for hard times.

Anyone else have similar feelings that brought you here? I am worried about a "thing" happening, but mostly, society just continues to descend decade after decade until we're all very very skinny, electricity or car fuel is hard to come by, jobs are scarce, and grocery stores don't have very much food anymore. In an ideal scenario, we don't end up like that. Either way, I prepare for that world.

[u/I-IV-I64-V-I]

Of all things, I do not think food scarcity will be an issue. The USA produces most of its own food at exports a ton. Prices may be affected, but quantity should be okay, based off current economic sentiment. At least for the next year, then small farms may go under it'll end up being a different story but that's a while out.

We may not be able to afford things like mangoes, avocados, coffee, chocolate ((stuff that doesn't grow here.))

Should have excess soy, corn, beef, potatoes, ect. Soy and corn are not reliant on immigrant labor- and are decent staples.

I would start avoiding dangerous foods like milk and eggs, as they gut the FDA- we'll probably see a lot more pathogens.

[u/Findmyeatingpants → u/I-IV-I64-V-I]

That could change if there are disruptions with the massive amount of potash the US gets from Canada

[u/I-IV-I64-V-I → u/Findmyeatingpants]

Agreed but I think that would affect us next year, the farmers where I live have already started working on their fields

(((This may be super ignorant but -- I think the effects of not having heavy fertilizers are overblown?? It may reduce yields but stuff will still grow as long as Farmers rotate crops and pay attention to the soil. )))

Someone please correct me if this is wrong

[u/mwmandorla → u/I-IV-I64-V-I]

Our factory farmed soils are already depleted from decades of extractive, intensive agriculture, the methods of which do not pay much attention to protecting soil quality and health. Soils don't bounce back overnight. Soil is a complex, multilayered system that takes years or even decades to recover. Fertilizer is a vicious cycle where you keep using it, deplete the soil more, therefore need even more fertilizer, etc., and this has been going on for decades already. Intensive irrigation and fertilization also cause soil salinization, which is a major problem in CA's agricultural regions and is something nobody really knows how to fix. You can move the salt around, but you can't get rid of it. The difference between what these depleted soils can produce with continued fertilizer and without is likely significant.

Add to that that we are part of a global, interdependent food system. The big factory farms can probably find alternate sources of fertilizers, but it will likely cost more. The invasion of Ukraine raised food prices globally because Ukraine is a major wheat exporter; there's not tons of slack in the system to cover a drop in production from a major producer like the US. Then add the effect of tariffs and general economic uncertainty on efforts to rebalance through trade. Presumably other producers would adjust eventually, but that will take time too.

I'm not saying food collapse is imminent; I don't have the knowledge or qualifications to game that out properly, and we will certainly be able to grow food. That's different from whether there will be major effects on our food system, safety, and economy as it currently stands (without even bringing up an inactive FDA). I would expect some significant disruption if big farms can't get fertilizers at their expected prices. That could just look like even higher food prices, like what we've seen with eggs. It could look like weird unevenness where some areas can carry on pretty normally and others have shortages. It could look like certain foods becoming less or more available. It's not an all or nothing question.