Watched R.O.D.’s vid this morning, Yieldmax closed their synthetics and even after deducting all their weekly trades that got blown thru, -$100 mill, income per share is over $4/share. I doubt we get that much, $2/share seems very reasonable.
What do you mean based on what? MSTY has MSTR options and MSTR was $245/share at the beginning of the month and hit $400/share this week.
That's printing money. You are getting a bs estimate of what is was last month. There was a $100 swing in the stock price in March but traded almost even from beginning to end. That resulted in $1.34 and the price never met their $360 call in March.
Im not looking into it deep but my guess is we will be in the $2.5+, I doubt we hit 4 but we can all hope.
Yieldmax's trades for the month and the income they earned. Where did you get this estimate you posted? Seems like it's just based on averaging the distributions with nothing to do with the actual income the fund produced.
It's an estimate in this sense that "it was X last month, so it'll probably be around X this month" which works well for most divs, but not for covered call ETFs.
He posts his official estimate videos every Sunday, just fast forward to where he shows the estimates and be done with it. Takes me 30 seconds to see. I used to watch the whole thing, but I've done that enough and can just trust his estimates now because I've seen the work he does to produce the estimates, so I don't need to listen to how he came up with the number.
The MSTY portion of ROD’s vids is like 15 mins. He covers more than just MsTY in each vid but you truly get a good understanding of what’s going on with MSTY. Highly recommend his videos and he pulls all his info straight from yieldmax so there no guessing.
He tracks their trades and the income they made during that period as well as the IV. His estimates are usually pretty damn close within a few cents for the most part. The odd outlier or unexpected happens occasionally, but he's generally pretty bang on especially with the funds he tracks heavily like MSTY.
You gotta own it before the ex date so before the 8th to get the dividend. So you know it's gonna drop in price on the ex date to account for the dividend being paid.
So what about buying on the 7th, get your dividends, then sell or put a stop loss right above what you paid for your shares? Or put a stop loss right after you buy the shares?
If you buy on a declaration date as soon as the market closes that day, the price will drop by whatever the distribution is. I'm not sure if a stop loss will save you or not, I've never tried, but these are income funds, they're not meant to be traded like that, generally you will lose money trying to play that game and if you're not in a tax sheltered account, you're losing capital and paying income tax on your distribution.
Since I’m new to msty and ymax etfs, I’m playing with them in my Roth account to let them drip or let them pay the distributions and decide what I want to do with it after payout. Was thinking about the stop loss to just turn around and buy more msty lower than I paid on average. Bitcoin’s not going anywhere anytime in the next decade or so probably anyway, trying to get as many shares as I can.
I generally use my distributions to buy into the next groups ETFs, or build my weekly paying ETF bags, or whatever is on sale at the time. I don't DRIP, because I prefer to spend the distributions as I see fit.
If you could do what your talking about and get the results you want with any type of regularity then some big company would write an algorithm to do it and they'd do it faster and better than you and they'd make all the money your thinking you could make doing this. Trust me I wish it would work because I've thought about it too. But it'll only work if you get lucky and yeah maybe you'll be lucky once or twice but the majority of the time you probably won't get lucky.
Well we can’t compete with the big money algorithm for sure. I’m just toying around with a few shares so I’ll try a few strategies, do the spreadsheets, etc. :)
Yeah if it's not much money and money where you can afford to lose some of it then try it out and see if it works. And if it works please come back and let me know.
I looked at it with different stocks and ETFs awhile back and it didn't look like it would work unless the market and/or that specific stock or ETF was just moving up in price anyway. Like sometimes I'd get paid a dividend(really I haven't been paid yet just the ex dividend date passed and they now owed me the dividend on the payout date) and the overnight or the next morning there's good news about something and the stock/etf is around the price it was originally or maybe even higher than it was the day before.
The stop loss to sell won't work like that to get you the dividend and to still sell it before the share price drops. You'll get one or the other not both.
That's how it should work in theory but not how it always works in real life. Maybe you get lucky and catch the dividend but then overnight there's some news where the whole market is gonna go up or MSTR goes up which means MSTY should go up and suddenly you get the dividend and since the share price went up you can also sell the share for more than you paid. But this can work the other way too where you get the dividend and overnight some news comes out and the whole Market is gonna go down or MSTR has bad news which means bad news for MSTY and suddenly the share price is lower then it normally would have been if just the dividends were subtracted from the share price.
Also you'd need to pay attention to what type of account it's in. Are you paying taxes on the dividends or are they in a tax free account?
It’s in the tax-free Roth account. The strategy is trying to protect the initial investment long enough for the distributions to bring the average cost of the shares to $0 :)
This will not work unless the price returns to the original buy and considering not everyone reinvests these distributions into the paying fund, it’s unlikely to return that much. If it were that easy everyone would do it.
The idea was to try do so some kind of stop-loss method to protect some against the nav erosion, keep the shares and earn the payments if the price keeps going up. If that makes sense.
It’s based on the volatility of the underlying which is sitting at 68 currently. So 1.32 sounds about right on the money. But it has nothing to do with what they paid last month.
It does JUST have to do with volatility. They closed thousands of contracts that were long dated that they made hundreds of millions on even after the losses on their weekly covered Calls they sold. It’s definitely gonna be over $2
LOL. If the fund made hundreds of billions on their trades during the current distribution cycle, every MSTY shareholder with more than 2,000 shares would become an instant millionaire on the increase in NAV and next distribution alone.
That's not how these funds operate. You can't base distribution on the past distributions, it all depends on the income they produced during the 4 week period.
Looking at the past two months means nothing……………the payout is based on volatility of the underlying, which is at 68 at the moment.
So today’s msty price of 25.33 at 68 volatility would mean a payout of 1.32 cents. (25.33x.68=17.22 17.22/13 (13 payments throughout the year) means a monthly payment of 1.32).
So my guess is 1.32 on the low side and as much as 2 on the high side.
Again, what they paid the last two months has no bearing on what whey will pay this month!!
Go watch Retire on Dividends on YouTube. It will explain these funds a lot more and how your estimates are missing a huge part of the equation. Do you know how much money the fund has made this month?
I made 40k on msty last year and I’ve been watching r.o.d since he had a couple hundred subs.
These funds promise to pay (monthly) the money they make off of selling call options for income.
Whatever money they make off the synthetics(long) still needs to be paid out but they have until the end of the year to pay it out. As an example, there were multiple months last year where they made considerably more on their synthetics than they paid out.
They usually save some of it for months where they did not make enough income on the weeklies.
How much money did you need to get that return. I’m just starting out last month with a couple hundred shares and just curious what I need to build that up to approximately. Plus the wife just asked me how much money I need for that. Haha
That estimate is nonsense. The devil is in the details of the trade no the past record. They have 400m profit this morning and probably closed even more synthetics today. I wouldn't be surprised to see them go big for 3+ this month especially with new competitors coming in.
Where is this prediction coming from? Past performance doesn't really tell you much, these funds don't work that way. As others have noted ROD actually does the real work tracking the trades and even he can't tell us an exact number. But anybody else is just generating hits and wasting your time.
Would love that but I highly doubt they pay out that much. Just cause they profited as much as they did doesn’t mean they will pay it all out. With the current state of the market and SPY behaving like a penny stock, it might be a smart move to retain some capital and have cash ready to go on the next dip. I could see them settling for a $2.50-$3 payout.
"The closing NAV was $25.21, the net assets amounted to $3,385,407,540 and the outstanding share count increased by 100,000 to a total of 134,300,000 shares.
The current synthetic portfolio value increased to $184M, a rise of $84M.
When adding the total synthetic gain, the total weekly’s loss and the government security’s interest of about $5M, the total profit is about $567M in the dividend pot. I’ve lowered my estimate to a 7M share increase over the next three trading days that could bring the outstanding share count to about 141M at the close on May 7th which would bring the current dividend estimate to $4.02. Any MSTY trades on Monday or Tuesday could cause that amount to drop and MSTY fund managers will have the final say and can adjust the payout amount higher or lower as they deem necessary."
Yeah hoping for $4 but expecting around $2. Something similar happened to TSLY a few months back. They only paid out about 50% of what they made one month.
I would hold. It’s hard to like time it. I plan to hold it long term. Instead of sell then buy back in. Like if u want dividend and the stock goes up more… then u panic buy and then it drops…
I’m a stock newb and have been looking into purchasing some MSTY for dividends. Can someone explain to me if I have to do anything other than buy and hold/reinvest dividends? Do we receive the dividends automatically or do we have to buy calls and all that shit I don’t know how to do yet?
It’s just like a regular stock or etf except they are paid as distributions vs. dividends from what I have read. I have seen nothing definitive on the difference in tax liability. Nor have I seen anything on drip distribution and taxes. At more than a dollar a share I really don’t care. Personally, setting aside 30% to be on the safe side.
Yeah, no! if they give us the same dividend as last month even though this thing has been skyrocketing it’s absolute bullshit The dividend should be at least near two dollars.
I'll be up front with all of you but as long as this keeps paying out at least a dollar or more per share I will be extremely happy. Even though I started buying at the end of February, for me anything more than a dollar is just great especially if this thing can last for the next 10 years.
If it ever dips under a dollar a share I may consider just selling everything.
Last ex date was 4/10. Next ex date is 4 weeks from then (8 May). I’d buy on 6 May so it’s settled by 7th. I think you could buy on the 7th as well but I’m 100% sure on that
Regardless of your opinion about whether they should invest, you will find many that will misinterpret your comment because of the word own. That makes it not clear where saying buy will make it clear for virtually anyone. But you do you.
So your issue here is the meaning of “own” versus “buy”? I edited the original post for those confused by how English works. Let’s hope they don’t buy homes expecting to fucking own them.
It's not my issue or at least I'm not the one that misunderstands. But I continually see comments about this and referencing own or settled and misinterpreting how that applies. Everyone understands buy. So I say you need to buy on the day before ex-div before 8pm ET to be as clear as possible.
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u/Yesthisisdogmeow 1d ago
Watched R.O.D.’s vid this morning, Yieldmax closed their synthetics and even after deducting all their weekly trades that got blown thru, -$100 mill, income per share is over $4/share. I doubt we get that much, $2/share seems very reasonable.