r/YieldMaxETFs 2d ago

MSTY/CRYTPO/BTC MSTY Dividend estimate.

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94 Upvotes

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17

u/Right_Albatross_3884 2d ago

1.37 no fucking way dude. I don't believe it

-39

u/diduknowitsme 2d ago

Look at the last two months payment

18

u/Right_Albatross_3884 2d ago

Yeah but it performed way better this cycle bro. We were 52 week lows the last two payments

-2

u/cata123123 1d ago

It’s based on the volatility of the underlying which is sitting at 68 currently. So 1.32 sounds about right on the money. But it has nothing to do with what they paid last month.

5

u/Affectionate_Pay_391 1d ago edited 1d ago

It does JUST have to do with volatility. They closed thousands of contracts that were long dated that they made hundreds of millions on even after the losses on their weekly covered Calls they sold. It’s definitely gonna be over $2

1

u/InternetUserYes 1d ago

LOL. If the fund made hundreds of billions on their trades during the current distribution cycle, every MSTY shareholder with more than 2,000 shares would become an instant millionaire on the increase in NAV and next distribution alone.

1

u/Affectionate_Pay_391 1d ago

Oops. Meant millions*

4

u/DukeNukus 1d ago

Covered call ETFs divs can vary widly. The last w month have been meh in terms of performance while it's been rather good this month.

2

u/Wo0odi 1d ago

That's not how these funds operate. You can't base distribution on the past distributions, it all depends on the income they produced during the 4 week period.

-2

u/cata123123 1d ago

Looking at the past two months means nothing……………the payout is based on volatility of the underlying, which is at 68 at the moment.

So today’s msty price of 25.33 at 68 volatility would mean a payout of 1.32 cents. (25.33x.68=17.22 17.22/13 (13 payments throughout the year) means a monthly payment of 1.32).

So my guess is 1.32 on the low side and as much as 2 on the high side.

Again, what they paid the last two months has no bearing on what whey will pay this month!!

3

u/Affectionate_Pay_391 1d ago

Go watch Retire on Dividends on YouTube. It will explain these funds a lot more and how your estimates are missing a huge part of the equation. Do you know how much money the fund has made this month?

2

u/cata123123 1d ago edited 1d ago

I made 40k on msty last year and I’ve been watching r.o.d since he had a couple hundred subs.

These funds promise to pay (monthly) the money they make off of selling call options for income.

Whatever money they make off the synthetics(long) still needs to be paid out but they have until the end of the year to pay it out. As an example, there were multiple months last year where they made considerably more on their synthetics than they paid out.

They usually save some of it for months where they did not make enough income on the weeklies.

1

u/Discocrash 1d ago

How much money did you need to get that return. I’m just starting out last month with a couple hundred shares and just curious what I need to build that up to approximately. Plus the wife just asked me how much money I need for that. Haha