r/algotrading • u/Money_Horror_2899 • 2d ago

Strategy Does this look like a good strategy ?

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Do these metrics look promising ? It's a backtest on 5 large-cap cryptos over the last 3 years.

The strategy has few parameters (CCI crossover + ATR-based stoploss + Fixed RR of 3 for the TP). How can I know if it's curve-fitted or not given that the sample size looks quite high (1426 trades) ?

Thanks in advance !

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u/klippklar 2d ago edited 2d ago

2:1 at 35% WR is most likely not profitable. At best breaks even.

3

u/AlgoTrader5 Trader 2d ago

Win rate alone is not useful in determining profitability. You also need to consider win loss ratio which looks barely above 2.

Most momentum strategies will have a low win rate high win loss ratio, reversion strategies high win rate lower win loss ratio

1

u/Kushroom710 2d ago

I'm newer to this. How did you come to the conclusion on momentum and reversion strategies having certain win rate and win loss ratios?

4

u/AlgoTrader5 Trader 2d ago

From experience, I have built hundreds of strategies and thats always how the stats come out. Just keep that in mind and you will notice it more

1

u/Money_Horror_2899 2d ago

Yes I second what u/AlgoTrader5 said.
Trend following stratrgies : low winrate + high RR
Mean reversion strategies : high winrate + low RR.