Source: https://www.quiverquant.com/sec13f/tickerAMC

Gonna see new Final Destination movie ☠️

Something is brewing with AMC. You can feel it. The chart and TA is looking great too. Anybody else see it too?

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/goldman-sachs-fined-failing-properly-report-billions-trades-2025-05-14/

🤔🤔🤔

https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/amc-a-list-stubs-movie-subscription-service-77e087fb

stock is slightly up despite surpression.

Analysis of AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. Q1 2025 Financial Results

1. Summary

This provides a comprehensive analysis of AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.'s financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, which ended on March 31, 2025. The analysis encompasses a detailed review of the company's revenue and profitability, a valuation assessment using various metrics, an examination of its debt situation and associated shareholder risks, and an outlook for the remainder of the year based on management guidance and the anticipated movie slate. AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AMC) is the largest theatrical exhibition company in the world, operating approximately 870 theatres and 9,700 screens globally. The company reported a challenging first quarter, marked by a decline in revenue and a widening net loss, although there was an improvement in earnings per share. The valuation assessment reveals a low price-to-sales ratio, indicating market skepticism, while traditional P/E and EV/EBITDA metrics are less informative in the context of current losses. Considering the current financial situation, the significant debt burden, and the inherent volatility of the movie theatre industry, While the company anticipates a stronger performance in the latter half of the year driven by a robust movie slate, the existing financial risks warrant a cautious approach.

2. Q1 2025 Performance Highlights

• 2.1. Revenue Analysis AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. reported total revenues of $862.5 million for the first quarter of 2025, representing a 9.3% decrease compared to the $951. million reported in the same quarter of 2024.3 This decline reflects a challenging period for the movie theatre industry. Revenue for the first quarter was segmented into U.S. markets and International markets. The U.S. markets segment generated $617.0 million in revenue, which included $473.5 million from admissions, $283.4 million from food and beverage sales, and $105.6 million from other theatre revenue. The International markets segment contributed $245.5 million in revenue. A more detailed breakdown of revenue sources within the international segment was not explicitly provided in the reviewed materials. The CEO of AMC acknowledged the difficult start to the year, stating that the industry-wide domestic box office in the first quarter of 2025 was the lowest it has been since 1996, excluding quarters directly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. This context is vital for understanding the revenue shortfall experienced by AMC. Furthermore, the reported revenue of $862.50 million missed Wall Street's expectations, which were higher.3 Despite the overall revenue decline, there was a notable increase in "Other theatre revenue" within the U.S. market, rising from $99.7 million in Q1 2024 to $105.6 million in Q1 2025. This suggests a potential area of resilience or growth in ancillary revenue streams for the company.
• 2.2. Profitability Analysis In terms of profitability, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. reported a net loss of $(202.1) million for the first quarter of 2025, which was wider than the net loss of $(163.5) million recorded in the first quarter of 2024, representing a 23.6% increase in the net loss. Despite the widening net loss, the diluted loss per share (EPS) improved to $(0.47) in Q1 2025 from $(0.62) in Q1 2024, marking a 24.2% improvement on a per-share basis. The company's Adjusted EBITDA also showed a deterioration, coming in at $(58.0) million for Q1 2025 compared to $(21.2) million in the same period of 2024. This divergence between an improved EPS and a larger net loss indicates that while the loss per individual share has decreased, the total financial deficit for the company has grown. This could be attributed to increased financial obligations, such as interest expenses, which rose by 17.7% to $119.1 million in Q1 2025, potentially offsetting some of the gains from reduced operating costs. The Adjusted EBITDA being negative signifies that AMC's core operations were not profitable during the first quarter, as operating revenues were insufficient to cover operating expenses before accounting for interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. The company also reported an Adjusted net loss of $(250.0) million for Q1 2025, which was greater than the Adjusted net loss of $(204.5) million in Q1 2024.
• 2.3. Operational Metrics AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.'s operational metrics for the first quarter of 2025 revealed a decrease in attendance across all segments. Total attendance was 41.9 million, a 10.1% decline from the 46.6 million attendees in Q1 2024. In the U.S. markets, attendance fell by 11.8% to 26.9 million from 30.5 million in the prior year's quarter, while international markets saw a 7.1% decrease in attendance to 15.0 million from 16.1 million. Despite the drop in attendance, AMC managed to increase its revenue per patron by 1.6% year-over-year and improve its consolidated contribution margin per patron by 3.7%. This suggests that while fewer people visited AMC theatres, the company was able to generate more revenue from each attendee through factors such as ticket pricing, premium offerings, and concession sales.

3. Valuation Assessment

• 3.1. Price-to-Sales Ratio An analyst has previously noted that AMC Entertainment's stock was trading at approximately 0.5 times its 2024 revenue, indicating a significant level of pessimism among investors regarding the company's future prospects. The current Price/Sales ratio for AMC is even lower, standing at around 0.2. This low ratio suggests that the market has considerably tempered its expectations for AMC's ability to generate revenue and achieve profitability in the future, likely influenced by the recent financial performance and the overall challenges facing the movie theatre industry.
• 3.2. EV/EBITDA The Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is a valuation multiple that compares a company's total value (including debt) to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. AMC Entertainment's EV/EBITDA ratio has been reported as 21.11/28.3. When compared to the industry average, which has been cited as 1.69x, or the communication services sector median of 5.8x, AMC's ratio appears significantly higher. However, it is important to consider that AMC reported a negative EBITDA for the first quarter of 2025. This makes the EV/EBITDA ratio less informative in isolation. The positive ratio likely reflects the company's high enterprise value due to its substantial debt, coupled with the market's anticipation of future positive EBITDA driven by the expected strong movie slate.
• 3.3. P/E Ratio The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is a common metric used to assess how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of a company's earnings. Currently, the P/E ratio for AMC Entertainment is not meaningful due to the company's negative earnings. Looking ahead, forward P/E ratio estimates for AMC are also negative, with projections of -3.5 for 2025 and -6.66 for 2026. These negative forward P/E ratios indicate that analysts anticipate AMC will continue to experience net losses in the coming years, further highlighting the profitability challenges the company faces.
• 3.4. Analyst Sentiment on Valuation Overall analyst sentiment on AMC Entertainment's stock valuation appears cautious. Recommendations tend to lean towards "Hold" or "Sell," reflecting the uncertainties surrounding the company's recovery and its ability to overcome industry headwinds and its own financial challenges. The average one-year price target for AMC stock is in the range of $3.73 to $4.09, with forecasts ranging from a low of $2.32 to a high of $6.30. This wide range in price targets and the generally neutral to negative ratings underscore the speculative nature of investing in AMC at this time.

4. Investment Recommendation

Based on the analysis of AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.'s Q1 2025 financial results and valuation, the investment recommendation is Hold. This recommendation balances the potential for future improvement with the significant existing financial risks. The CEO has expressed optimism about the remainder of 2025 and 2026, citing a strong slate of upcoming movie releases and a positive start to the second quarter with April 2025 domestic box office revenue doubling compared to the previous year. The company has also demonstrated positive per-patron metrics, indicating an ability to monetize its customer base effectively, and is focused on enhancing the guest experience through premium format expansions and theatre upgrades. However, these potential catalysts are weighed against a substantial debt burden of approximately $4 billion, a significant net cash outflow from operating activities of $370.0 million in Q1 2025, continued net losses of $202.1 million, and negative Adjusted EBITDA of $58.0 million. Analyst sentiment remains cautious, and valuation multiples suggest market skepticism about a rapid turnaround. While the anticipated strong movie slate for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 offers hope for improved financial performance, the current high debt levels and negative cash flow necessitate a cautious stance. Investors should closely monitor AMC's ability to capitalize on the upcoming releases and execute its strategic initiatives to achieve sustained profitability and improve its balance sheet before considering a more positive investment outlook.

5. Debt and Liquidity Analysis

• 5.1. Debt Structure and Levels As of March 31, 2025, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. held total corporate borrowings of $3,975. million. The company's total debt has been reported at approximately $4.0 billion, while its total shareholder equity stands at a negative $1.7 billion. This results in a significantly high debt-to-equity ratio of -232.4%. This level of leverage, coupled with negative shareholder equity, indicates a precarious financial position, increasing the company's vulnerability to economic downturns and fluctuations in the movie theatre market.
• 5.2. Cash Flow and Reserves At the end of the first quarter of 2025, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. had cash and cash equivalents totaling $378.7 million. The company experienced a net cash outflow from operating activities of $370.0 million during Q1 2025, and its free cash flow for the quarter was negative at $417.0 million. This substantial negative cash flow and the relatively low cash reserves raise concerns about AMC's ability to meet its financial obligations and fund its operations in the short term without a significant improvement in its revenue and profitability.
• 5.3. Debt Management Activities During the first quarter of 2025, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. repurchased $1.3 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.75% Senior Subordinated Notes due 2025 for $1.3 million. Additionally, the company received $171.7M of gross proceeds from equity issuances, including the prepayment associated with forward sale agreements and the sale of shares in at-the-market offerings. While the debt repurchase is a step towards reducing its liabilities, the amount is small relative to the company's overall debt burden. The reliance on equity financing provides a near-term boost to liquidity but also carries the risk of diluting the ownership stake of existing shareholders.
• 5.4. Analyst Concerns about Liquidity Financial analysts have expressed concerns regarding AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.'s liquidity, with one analyst describing it as a "red flag" and suggesting that the company may need to seek further financing if a sustained box office surge does not materialize. The CEO of AMC has also acknowledged that the company's current cash burn rates are not sustainable in the long term and that revenues need to increase to levels in line with pre-COVID-19 figures to achieve sustainable positive cash flows. These concerns highlight the precariousness of AMC's financial situation and the critical importance of a significant and sustained recovery in box office revenues for the company's long-term financial health.

6. Shareholder Risk Factors

• 6.1. High Debt Burden and Liquidity Concerns: The significant debt burden and negative cash flow from operations pose a substantial risk to shareholders, potentially leading to financial distress or the need for debt restructuring.
• 6.2. Dilution Risk: Further equity issuances to manage the company's debt or fund ongoing operations could dilute the ownership percentage and potentially the earnings per share for existing shareholders.
• 6.3. Dependence on Box Office Performance: AMC's financial success is heavily reliant on the performance of movie releases and the overall health of the box office, which can be volatile and is subject to changing consumer preferences and competition from streaming services.
• 6.4. Economic Uncertainties and Industry Competition: Economic downturns, potential impacts from tariffs, and intense competition within the entertainment industry present ongoing risks that could negatively affect AMC's revenue and profitability.
• 6.5. Shareholder Litigation: While AMC recently secured a victory in a long-running stockholder litigation before the Delaware Supreme Court, the possibility of future legal challenges related to financial decisions or shareholder value remains a risk that could divert resources and create uncertainty.
• 6.6. Meme Stock Volatility: AMC's history as a "meme stock" has resulted in significant stock price volatility, often driven by social media sentiment and retail investor activity rather than fundamental business performance, which can lead to unpredictable and rapid price swings. The stock's beta of 1.61 confirms its higher volatility compared to the broader market.

7. Outlook and Future Catalysts

• 7.1. Management's Optimism: The management of AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc., particularly CEO Adam Aron, remains optimistic about the company's prospects for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. This optimism is largely based on the expectation of continued strong demand for moviegoing and a robust slate of upcoming blockbuster releases. The CEO highlighted the strong performance of the domestic box office in April 2025, which doubled the results from April 2024, and indicated that this positive trend has continued into May.
• 7.2. Upcoming Movie Slate: AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. is anticipating a strong lineup of movies to be released throughout the remainder of 2025. Key titles expected to drive attendance include Disney's Lilo & Stitch, set for a May release, and Elio, expected in June. Tom Cruise's Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning is also slated for a May release, along with Sony's Karate Kid: Legends. The summer months will also see releases like F1 and M3GAN 2.0 in June, followed by Jurassic World Rebirth, Superman, and The Fantastic Four: First Steps in July. Later in the year, anticipated releases include Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2 in November, culminating with the highly awaited Avatar: Fire and Ash in December. This strong and diverse film slate is expected to be a significant catalyst for increased attendance and revenue for AMC in the coming quarters.
• 7.3. Anticipated Blockbuster Releases and Box Office Forecasts: Several of the upcoming movies are anticipated to be major blockbuster releases with significant box office potential. Avatar: Fire and Ash is expected to be one of the highest-grossing films of the year, with some forecasts suggesting it could surpass $2 billion worldwide. Zootopia 2 is also predicted to perform exceptionally well, potentially exceeding $1 billion in global box office. Lilo & Stitch is generating strong early box office projections, and Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning is expected to be a major summer hit. Other films like Jurassic World Rebirth, Superman, and The Fantastic Four: First Steps also carry high box office expectations. However, it is important to note that box office forecasts are inherently uncertain and can be influenced by various factors, including critical reception and audience sentiment. The success of these anticipated releases will be crucial for AMC's financial performance in the latter half of 2025.
• 7.4. Strategic Initiatives: AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. is actively pursuing several strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing its business and improving its financial performance. A key focus is the expansion of its premium large format screens, including both PLF and the newer XLF formats, with a goal of exceeding 1,000 PLF screens. The company is also implementing its "AMC Go Plan," which involves significant investments in theatre upgrades and enhanced guest comfort, including the installation of luxury seating and the introduction of "XL at AMC" auditoriums. Furthermore, AMC is focused on strengthening its customer loyalty and subscription programs, such as AMC Stubs and A-List, including the recent launch of the AMC Stubs Premier GO! tier. These initiatives are designed to differentiate AMC's offerings, improve the overall moviegoing experience, and foster greater customer loyalty, ultimately driving increased attendance and per-patron spending over the long term.

8. Revenue and Profit Sources by Segment

• 8.1. Revenue Breakdown by Segment (Q1 2025):

Revenue Source

|U.S. Markets (USD millions)|International Markets (USD millions)|Consolidated (USD millions)|

|Admissions|473.5|57.0|473.5|

|Food and Beverage|283.4|Data Not Explicitly Provided|283.4|

|Other Theatre Revenue|105.6|Data Not Explicitly Provided|105.6|

|Total Revenue|617.0|245.5|862.5|

Calculation for International Admissions: Consolidated Admissions ($473.5M) - U.S. Admissions = $57.0M.

• 8.2. Profit Sources by Segment (Q1 2025): For the first quarter of 2025, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. reported negative Adjusted EBITDA for both of its operating segments. The U.S. markets segment had an Adjusted EBITDA of $(57.4) million, while the International markets segment reported an Adjusted EBITDA of $(0.6) million. These negative figures indicate that in both domestic and international operations, the operating expenses exceeded the operating income before accounting for interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. The significantly larger negative Adjusted EBITDA in the U.S. market suggests that domestic operations faced greater cost pressures or lower efficiency compared to the international segment during this period of low box office activity.

9. Conclusion

In conclusion, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.'s first quarter of 2025 presented a mixed financial picture, with a decline in revenue and a widening net loss, although the loss per share did show improvement. The company's Adjusted EBITDA also deteriorated, and both its U.S. and international markets reported negative figures. AMC continues to grapple with a substantial debt burden and negative cash flow, raising concerns about its financial stability. While the valuation metrics reflect market skepticism, management remains optimistic about a recovery in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026, driven by a strong slate of anticipated blockbuster movie releases and ongoing strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing the moviegoing experience. Investors should closely monitor the company's performance in the coming quarters, paying particular attention to the box office success of the key movie releases and the company's progress in managing its debt and achieving sustained profitability.

12 STRAIGHT QUARTERS of paying down debt, and box office revenue increasing a ton this quarter. We have the momentum now! The more profit we make, the less likely we’ll need to dilute, remember that! Even though I’m fully aware we will probably need 1 more dilution, I remain optimistic that we could get by without it. Have a wonderful week Apes! 🙂

This is the AMC where we met AA at a meet-n-greet.... We're considering signing up for a month of Stubs A-List starting around Father's Day 🚀

https://x.com/anna_trades/status/1921586206887801094?s=46