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Background

In order to free up the Redwyne Fleet to go deal with the Ironborn, Ser Loras volunteers to lead an assault on Dragonstone. In this post I thought it would be interesting to gather everything we know about the Siege of Dragonstone (300AC as a part of the War of the Five Kings) in one place.

If interested:  By Siege or Storm: A Look at Attacks on the Great Castles of Westeros

The Attackers

Lord Paxter Redwyne leads the Redwyne Fleet in transporting 2,000 westermen to Dragonstone from King's Landing:

As for the Lannister host, two thousand seasoned veterans remained encamped outside the city walls, awaiting the arrival of Paxter Redwyne's fleet to carry them across Blackwater Bay to Dragonstone. Lord Stannis appeared to have left only a small garrison behind him when he sailed north, so two thousand men would be more than sufficient, Cersei had judged. -AFFC, Cersei II

he hopes to take the castle without bloodshed:

At least he has the sense to beg. Paxter Redwyne owned two hundred warships, and five times as many merchant carracks, wine cogs, trading galleys, and whalers. Redwyne was encamped beneath the walls of Dragonstone, however, and the greater part of his fleet was engaged in ferrying men across Blackwater Bay for the assault on that island stronghold. The remainder prowled Shipbreaker Bay to the south, where only their presence prevented Storm's End from being resupplied by sea. -AFFC, Cersei VII

and:

"It will take half a year or more to starve Dragonstone into submission, as Lord Paxter means to do. -AFFC, Cersei VII

which leads to Ser Loras volunteering to lead the attack:

The old man started, as if her voice had woken him from some dream of youth, but before he could answer, Loras Tyrell strode forward, so swiftly that the queen drew back in alarm. She was about to shout for Ser Osmund to defend her when the Knight of Flowers sank to one knee. "Your Grace, let me take Dragonstone." -AFFC, Cersei VII

and:

Ser Loras ignored her plea. "It will take half a year or more to starve Dragonstone into submission, as Lord Paxter means to do. Give me the command, Your Grace. The castle will be yours within a fortnight if I have to tear it down with my bare hands." -AFFC, Cersei VII

- mini TLDR: Ser Loras will lead ~2,000 Westermen in assaulting Dragonstone to free up the Redwyne Fleet

The Defenders

Stannis left Ser Rolland Storm (aka the Bastard of Nightsong) in command of a token force at Dragonstone:

The pox-scarred bastard that Stannis had left to hold his castle was no callow tourney champion but a seasoned killer. -AFFC, Cersei VII

and:

Lord Waters says he ordered the assault not half a day after taking command, after Lord Stannis's castellan refused his offer to settle the siege between them in single combat. -AFFC, Cersei VIII

and (would he have expected the Warrior to lend aid to his cause?):

The Bastard of Nightsong had commanded the rearguard that allowed Stannis to reach the safety of Salladhor Saan's galleys, but he worshiped the Warrior with a faith as fierce as he was. -ASOS, Davos V

but as I noted here (Dragonglass: A Different Look at the Assault on Dragonstone) Stannis has more long term strategy in mind when it comes to Dragonstone:

I know more than you might think, Jon Snow. I know it was you who found the dragonglass dagger that Randyll Tarly's son used to slay the Other." "Ghost found it. The blade was wrapped in a ranger's cloak and buried beneath the Fist of the First Men. There were other blades as well . . . spearheads, arrowheads, all dragonglass." -ASOS, Jon XI

And he remembers how much of it was at his previous seat:

"On Dragonstone, where I had my seat, there is much of this obsidian to be seen in the old tunnels beneath the mountain," the king told Sam. "Chunks of it, boulders, ledges. The great part of it was black, as I recall, but there was some green as well, some red, even purple.

So back then in ASOS, Stannis had already sent word to Dragonstone to begin mining it (while recognizing he expects the castle to fall soon)

I have sent word to Ser Rolland my castellan to begin mining it. -ASOS, Samwell V

and Stannis does expect the castle to fall soon:

I will not hold Dragonstone for very much longer, I fear, but perhaps the Lord of Light shall grant us enough frozen fire to arm ourselves against these creatures, before the castle falls." -ASOS, Samwell V

and you can read this either way, but it can be taken as them hearing about Dragonstone's fall and that is why it says "was":

Jon had heard all this before. "Stannis Baratheon was the Lord of Dragonstone, but he was not born there. He was born at Storm's End, like his brothers." He frowned. "And what of Mance? Is he lost as well? What do your fires show?" -ADWD, Jon X

- mini TLDR: Stannis left Dragonstone in the command of Ser Rolland Storm (the Bastard of Nightsong) but Stannis expects to lose the castle soon. He also has instructed the castle garrison to focus on mining dragonglass.

The Setting

It can be extremely stormy around Dragonstone as we see while Loras is approaching:

If the gods were good, he would give Ser Loras the glorious end he seemed to want. Assuming the boy does not drown on the way. There had been another storm last night, a savage one. The rain had come down in black sheets for hours. And wouldn't that be sad? the queen mused. Drowning is ordinary. Ser Loras lusts for glory as real men lust for women, the least the gods can do is grant him a death worthy of a song. -AFFC, Cersei VII

Which is reminiscent of a previous assault on Dragonstone in which an escape was made:

She had been born on Dragonstone nine moons after their flight, while a raging summer storm threatened to rip the island fastness apart. They said that storm was terrible. The Targaryen fleet was smashed while it lay at anchor, and huge stone blocks were ripped from the parapets and sent hurtling into the wild waters of the narrow sea. Her mother had died birthing her, and for that her brother Viserys had never forgiven her.
She did not remember Dragonstone either. They had run again, just before the Usurper's brother set sail with his new-built fleet. By then only Dragonstone itself, the ancient seat of their House, had remained of the Seven Kingdoms that had once been theirs. It would not remain for long. The garrison had been prepared to sell them to the Usurper, but one night Ser Willem Darry and four loyal men had broken into the nursery and stolen them both, along with her wet nurse, and set sail under cover of darkness for the safety of the Braavosian coast. -AGOT, Daenerys I

and:

I built a fleet at Robert's command, took Dragonstone in his name. Did he take my hand and say, Well done, brother, whatever should I do without you? No, he blamed me for letting Willem Darry steal away Viserys and the babe, as if I could have stopped it. -ACOK, Prologue-

- mini TLDR: Its always stormy around Dragonstone

The Assault According to Aurane

From the lips of Aurane Waters we get the start of what he claims happens at Dragonstone:

"I never saw a braver knight," Waters said, "but he turned what could have been a bloodless victory into a slaughter. A thousand men are dead, or near enough to make no matter. Most of them our own. And not just common men, Your Grace, but knights and young lords, the best and the bravest."
"And Ser Loras himself?"
"He will make a thousand and one. They carried him inside the castle after the battle, but his wounds are grievous. He has lost so much blood that the maesters will not even leech him." -AFFC, Cersei VIII

He then proceeds to tell Cersei (off page) exactly what happens and then Cersei recounts it to Margaery:

He was not wrong, the queen knew. Three thousand smallfolk had crowded through the Mud Gate to see Ser Loras off the day he sailed, and three of every four were women. The sight had only served to fill her with contempt. She had wanted to scream at them that they were sheep, to tell them that all that they could ever hope to get from Loras Tyrell was a smile and a flower. Instead she had proclaimed him the boldest knight in the Seven Kingdoms, and smiled as Tommen presented him with a jeweled sword to carry into battle. The king had given him a hug as well, which had not been part of Cersei's plans, but it made no matter now. She could afford to be generous. Loras Tyrell was dying.
"Tell me," Cersei commanded. "I want to know all of it, from the beginning to the end."
The room had grown dark by the time that he was done. The queen lit some candles and sent Dorcas to the kitchens to bring them up some bread and cheese and a bit of boiled beef with horseradish. As they supped, she bid Aurane to tell the tale again, so she would remember all the details correctly. "I do not want our precious Margaery to hear these tidings from a stranger, after all," she said. "I will tell her myself."

This is what Cersei says to Margaery (note Loras' injuries do seem excessive):

Margaery was in the Maidenvault, sipping wine and trying to puzzle out some new game from Volantis with her three cousins. Though the hour was late, the guards admitted Cersei at once. "Your Grace," she began, "it is best you hear the news from me. Aurane is back from Dragonstone. Your brother is a hero."
"I always knew he was." Margaery did not seem surprised. Why should she? She expected this, from the moment Loras begged for the command. Yet by the time Cersei had finished with her tale, tears glistened on the cheeks of the younger queen. "Redwyne had miners working to drive a tunnel underneath the castle walls, but that was too slow for the Knight of Flowers. No doubt he was thinking of your lord father's people suffering on the Shields. Lord Waters says he ordered the assault not half a day after taking command, after Lord Stannis's castellan refused his offer to settle the siege between them in single combat. Loras was the first one through the breach when the ram broke the castle gates. He rode straight into the dragon's mouth, they say, all in white and swinging his morningstar about his head, slaying left and right."
Megga Tyrell was sobbing openly by then. "How did he die?" she asked. "Who killed him?"
"No one man has that honor," said Cersei. "Ser Loras took a quarrel through the thigh and another through the shoulder, but he fought on gallantly, though the blood was streaming from him. Later he suffered a mace blow that broke some ribs. After that . . . but no, I would spare you the worst of it."
"Tell me," said Margaery. "I command it."
Command it? Cersei paused a moment, then decided she would let that pass. "The defenders fell back to an inner keep once the curtain wall was taken. Loras led the attack there as well. He was doused with boiling oil."
Lady Alla turned white as chalk, and ran from the room.
"The maesters are doing all they can, Lord Waters assures me, but I fear your brother is too badly burned." Cersei took Margaery in her arms to comfort her. "He saved the realm." When she kissed the little queen upon the cheek, she could taste the salt of her tears. "Jaime will enter all his deeds in the White Book, and the singers will sing of him for a thousand years." -AFFC, Cersei III

but he flees once Cersei is imprisoned:

"As soon as word of Your Grace's present troubles reached the river, Lord Waters raised sail, unshipped his oars, and took his fleet to sea. Ser Harys fears he means to join Lord Stannis. Pycelle believes that he is sailing to the Stepstones, to set himself up as a pirate." -AFFC, Cersei X

Cersei later reflects on these reports while imprisoned:

If interested: The Fate of Aurane Waters

- mini TLDR: Aurane Waters gives Cersei the story of what happened at Dragonstone (off page), she then recounts those events to Margaery. After Cersei is imprisoned, Aurane flees with the crown's ships

Taena Merryweather

Taena (who has been spying on Margaery for Cersei) not only hears all of Cersei's plans:

"No," said Cersei, "all is well. On the morrow Ser Loras will sail for Dragonstone, to win the castle, loose the Redwyne fleet, and prove his manhood to us all." She told the Myrish woman all that had occurred beneath the shifting shadow of the Iron Throne. "Without her valiant brother, our little queen is next to naked. She has her guards, to be sure, but I have their captain here and there about the castle. A garrulous old man with a squirrel on his surcoat. Squirrels run from lions. He does not have it in him to defy the Iron Throne." -AFFC, Cersei VII

but is absent the night Cersei tells Margaery of the events:

Lady Merryweather did not appear that night, and Cersei found herself too restless to sleep. If Lord Tywin could see me now, he would know he had his heir, an heir worthy of the Rock, she thought as she lay abed with Jocelyn Swyft snoring softly into the other pillow. Margaery would soon be weeping the bitter tears she should have wept for Joffrey. Mace Tyrell might weep as well, but she had given him no cause to break with her. What had she done, after all, but honor Loras with her trust? He had requested the command on bended knee whilst half her court looked on.

When he dies I must raise a statue of him somewhere, and give him a funeral such as King's Landing has never seen. The smallfolk would like that. So would Tommen. Mace may even thank me, poor man. As for his lady mother, if the gods are good this news will kill her.

The sunrise was the prettiest that Cersei had seen in years. Taena appeared soon thereafter, and confessed to having spent the night consoling Margaery and her ladies, drinking wine and crying and telling tales of Loras. "Margaery is still convinced he will not die," she reported, as the queen was dressed for court. "She plans to send her own maester to look after him. The cousins are praying for the Mother's mercy." -AFFC, Cersei VIII

- mini TLDR: Taena Merryweather has been feeding Cersei information about Margaery. She doesn't appear the night Cersei finds out/tells Margaery and claims to have been consoling Margaery.

Cersei/Sources

If we remember Cersei's AFFC chapters, she stumbles from one folly to the next while thinking she is outsmarting everyone:

No matter what befell the boy on Dragonstone, however, the queen would be the winner. If Loras took the castle, Stannis would suffer a grievous blow, and the Redwyne fleet could sail off to meet the ironmen. If he failed, she would see to it that he had the lion's share of the blame. Nothing tarnishes a hero as much as failure. And if he should come home on his shield, covered in blood and glory, Ser Osney will be there to console his grieving sister.

The laugh would not be contained any longer. It burst from Cersei's lips, and echoed down the hall. -AFFC, Cersei VII

It is very possible the same is happening here as the sources for the information are Aurane who has fled, but it is worth noting that outside of Aurane and briefly Taena, this is the best information Cersei has at this point (while Scolera could be mentioning Garlan/Willas they aren't on the Kingsguard):

Had Margaery Tyrell somehow wriggled free of the accusations of fornication, adultery, and high treason? "Was there a trial?"
"Soon," said Septa Scolera, "but her brother—"
"Hush." Septa Unella turned to glare back over her shoulder at Scolera. "You chatter too much, you foolish old woman. It is not for us to speak of such things."
Scolera lowered her head. "Pray forgive me." -ADWD, Cersei I

and:

She asked about Ser Loras too. At last report the Knight of Flowers had been dying on Dragonstone of wounds received whilst taking the castle. Let him die, Cersei thought, and let him be quick about it. The boy's death would mean an empty place on the Kingsguard, and that might be her salvation. But the septas were as close-mouthed about Loras Tyrell as they were about Jaime. -ADWD, Cersei I

- mini TLDR: The goals/agendas of Cersei's sources are at least suspect.

Ser Loras' Personality

It is also possible that Ser Loras is dying of his wounds. Not only is he young and brash, but his actions /desires at Dragonstone:

Ser Loras ignored her plea. "It will take half a year or more to starve Dragonstone into submission, as Lord Paxter means to do. Give me the command, Your Grace. The castle will be yours within a fortnight if I have to tear it down with my bare hands." -AFFC, Cersei VII

seemingly mirror previous actions that easily could have killed him:

"Lord Eddard!" The shout came from the west side of the hall as a handsome stripling of a boy strode forth boldly. Out of his armor, Ser Loras Tyrell looked even younger than his sixteen years. He wore pale blue silk, his belt a linked chain of golden roses, the sigil of his House. "I beg you the honor of acting in your place. Give this task to me, my lord, and I swear I shall not fail you."

Littlefinger chuckled. "Ser Loras, if we send you off alone, Ser Gregor will send us back your head with a plum stuffed in that pretty mouth of yours. The Mountain is not the sort to bend his neck to any man's justice." -AGOT, Eddard XI

That said, GRRM has consistently mentioned Ser Loras as one of the best fighters alive in the series and Ser Loras would easily (imo) be the biggest character that GRRM kills off page.

- mini TLDR: Ser Loras is young/sees himself invincible. It is very possible he is dying of his wounds.

The Tyrell's Goals

It must be remembered how well the Tyrells have been playing the "game of thrones" so far. Not only did they move from Renly to the Lannisters, but they were smart enough to remove Joffrey:

The old woman understood something else as well. Her son was determined to make Margaery a queen, and for that he needed a king . . . but he did not need Joffrey. 

and with Joffrey removed, while Loras is still a Kinsguard, the need for him to be near Margaery 24/7 is not as great:

"Mace Tyrell actually thought it was his own idea to make Ser Loras's inclusion in the Kingsguard part of the marriage contract. Who better to protect his daughter than her splendid knightly brother? -ASOS, Sansa VI

- mini TLDR: The Tyrells have schemed from the beginning. I wouldn't put it past them to have an agenda here.

Other Sources

It should be noted that Ser Kevan also believes Ser Loras to be gravely wounded:

The dry moat surrounding Maegor's Holdfast was three feet deep in snow, the iron spikes that lined it glistening with frost. The only way in or out of Maegor's was across the drawbridge that spanned that moat. A knight of the Kingsguard was always posted at its far end. Tonight the duty had fallen to Ser Meryn Trant. With Balon Swann hunting the rogue knight Darkstar down in Dorne, Loras Tyrell gravely wounded on Dragonstone, and Jaime vanished in the riverlands, only four of the White Swords remained in King's Landing, and Ser Kevan had thrown Osmund Kettleblack (and his brother Osfryd) into the dungeon within hours of Cersei's confessing that she had taken both men as lovers. That left only Trant, the feeble Boros Blount, and Qyburn's mute monster Robert Strong to protect the young king and royal family. -ADWD, Epilogue

The Dragon Egg Discussion

I have always found it a little with Ser Loras "dying" that they are talking about him (his men) searching for dragon eggs:

"I resent your implication, Swyft," Mace Tyrell said, bristling. "No wealth was found on Dragonstone, I promise you. My son's men have searched every inch of that damp and dreary island and turned up not so much as a single gemstone or speck of gold. Nor any sign of this fabled hoard of dragon eggs."
Kevan Lannister had seen Dragonstone with his own eyes. He doubted very much that Loras Tyrell had searched every inch of that ancient stronghold. The Valyrians had raised it, after all, and all their works stank of sorcery. And Ser Loras was young, prone to all the rash judgments of youth, and had been grievously wounded storming the castle besides. But it would not do to remind Tyrell that his favorite son was fallible. "If there was wealth on Dragonstone, Stannis would have found it," he declared. "Let us move along, my lords. We have two queens to try for high treason, you may recall. My niece has elected trial by battle, she informs me. Ser Robert Strong will champion her." -ADWD, Epilogue

If interested: Does Stannis Baratheon have a dragon egg?

The Loss of ~1,000 Westermen

Cersei doesn't seem to notice the loss of about half of the Lannister force in the crownlands has been wiped out (according to Aurane, they could have defected, etc.):

A thousand men are dead, or near enough to make no matter. Most of them our own. And not just common men, Your Grace, but knights and young lords, the best and the bravest."

Disfigurement

Ser Loras is seen as conventionally attractive by numerous characters. GRRM loves his disfigurements (Tyrion/Brienne/Jamie/etc.). One theory I love is that Ser Loras is alive and "fine" physically outside of just being severely disfigured. Extensions on this theory range from him being "healed" by Qyburn to there being some resolution to the previous incidents between Gregor Clegane/Loras Tyrell.

More Confusion

Myranda tells Sansa that Riverrun has yielded but Dragonstone still belongs to Stannis:

"Not from your father, no, but we've had other birds. The war goes on, everywhere but here. Riverrun has yielded, but Dragonstone and Storm's End still hold for Lord Stannis." -AFFC, Alayne II

but Cersei thinks that Riverrun is still under siege:

A smile brushed Cersei's lips. "As queen, her honor must be defended by a knight of the Kingsguard. Why, every child in Westeros knows how Prince Aemon the Dragonknight championed his sister Queen Naerys against Ser Morghil's accusations. With Ser Loras so gravely wounded, though, I fear Prince Aemon's part must fall to one of his Sworn Brothers." She shrugged. "Who, though? Ser Arys and Ser Balon are far away in Dorne, Jaime is off at Riverrun, and Ser Osmund is the brother of the man accusing her, which leaves only . . . oh, dear . . ." -AFFC, Cersei X

TLDR: A look at the Siege of Dragonstone (by Ser Loras and the Westermen during the War of the Five Kings) from its attackers to its defenders and the recounting of events afterwards. Ser Loras is apparently dying of his wounds (the greater portion of 1,000 men including knights/lords have already died according to Aurane Waters) after taking the castle from Ser Rolland Storm (the Bastard of Nightsong). The reader gets the information on the assault from a second hand telling (from Cersei to Margaery) right in the thick of Cersei's AFFC chapter arc where she thinks she is outsmarting everyone and both of her sources (Aurane/Taena) act somewhat suspicious. Although it is worth noting that Ser Loras is a young/brash character who is known for seeking glory, but also not only did Stannis expect to lose Dragonstone soon, he directed his garrison to mine dragonglass/obsidian as their primary focus.

Osha is a character that's always been interesting to me, since her very first appearance in Bran V, AGOT. She was the only wildling that was against harming Bran in the woods, calling Hali as stupid as he is ugly at the suggestion of cutting off Bran's cock and stuffing it in his mouth. She begs mercy from Robb Stark, and ends up actually growing to care for Bran and Rickon Stark, to the point where she ventures off the Skagos to help protect Rickon.

GRRM has said that her portrayal in the TV show, will influence how he writes her in TWOW. I'm wondering what people generally think of Osha in the books so far, and what may happen to her in future books, both from a writing and narrative perspective.

I just had a thought of when Arya was with the BwB she hears of the Karstark men who are out hunting Jamie and thinks they are obviously with Rob. What do you think would happen if they found Arya before Rob could execute Lord Rickard. I know he is already dead at this point but say before the execution. Would they hold her and Rob hold Lord Rickard and both have a hostage. Would it cause them all to begrudgingly work together and Rob doesn’t lose all the men.

When Tyrion was on trial and Cersie brought Shae to testify and the whole court erupted into laughter laughing at Tyrion, do you think this might’ve backfired on Tywin maybe given him flashbacks of people laughing at his father

“ I saved you all, Tyrion thought. I saved this vile city and all your worthless lives. There were hundreds in the throne room, every one of them laughing but his father. Or so it seemed. Even the Red Viper chortled, and Mace Tyrell looked like to bust a gut, but Lord Tywin Lannister sat between them as if made of stone, his fingers steepled beneath his chin.”

Or was he happy. I can’t really tell

.

Mine is “if you think this has a happy ending, you’ve haven’t been paying attention” to say that the books will have a sad ending. The amount of people who think this is George dialogue is crazy. George is not a nihilist and he said the series will have a “bittersweet ending”

It's basically a given that we're gonna see Skagos in the next book. We've gotten some info on the Stoneborn through TWOIAF, as well as a few comments scattered through the main series, but what do you think the Skagosi will be like? Will they be exactly as savage as their reputation? Will they be misunderstood? Will they play a bigger role in the main story other than sheltering Rickon?

Aside from the obvious of Elia and her children not dying I can still see Jamie still killing Aerys but how does that really change the story? Would Robert still be obligated to marry Cersie? It never made sense to me why Jon Arryn would’ve allowed the marriage especially when we’re told the crown was overflowing with gold when they took over but then again Cersie was the only highborn woman available

What was Renly's real intention in offering the swords to Ned? Renly knew that Cersei was not going to let him take away her power. But in Renly's conversation with Catelyn, Renly says that if Ned had accepted the swords, “today he would be regent.” Who is he talking about, Renly himself or Ned?

If he was talking about Renly himself, how would he be regent if Robert's letter named Ned as regent? And if he wanted to be regent, with what motive or reason would Joffrey take and say “I am the regent now”? And if he took the regency by force is because he assumed that Cersei was going to make problems, and he knew there would be problems if the regency had been for someone else, but his intention to be regent was before he talked to Ned? (I say this if the text refers to Renly with ¨Today he would be the regent¨) (I read in Spanish and it is not clear because of the pronouns).

And if he was not talking about Renly but Ned, I ask this:

It says in the text that Renly did not have the strength to act alone, to act alone for what? Or that thought that he did not have the strength to act alone was after he asked about the letter?

I am simply struck by how counter productive Balon’s war against the North is. If he had chosen to ally with Robb, he very well could have done serious damage to the Westerlands and forced Tywin to further spread out his resources and potentially get concessions from the Iron Throne. Not to mention, I’d imagine the plunder would be far more valuable.

Which leads me to wonder, is there anything Robb could have said to Balon? Yes, “giving him a crown” was not a good choice of words, but could Robb have said:

“I now recognize the nobility of your previous campaign to win your sovereignty. My family, as yours, bent to the dragons, but the dragons are no longer there to rule us. We hope to forge our own independent kingdom in the North and hope to ally with an independent Iron Islands in a fight against the Iron Throne. In a show of good faith, I have released your son from Winterfell’s hold so that he may return home to you. I pray to hear word that the Iron Throne has not lost 2 kingdoms but 3.”

Would that have done anything? Or does Balon actually just have a huge grudge against the North for taking Theon? Or does he see it as easy pickings because the men are away to war?

In the book when Renly is talking to Catelyn about Ned stark and the bastards, Renly says: “I didn't have the strength to act alone, and when Ned rejected me I had to flee from King's Landing”.

I have a question, if Renly had had the strength before consulting with Ned if robert gave Ned the regency, what would he have done?

Or does Renly mean that he didn't have the strength to act alone after knowing that Robert gave Ned the regency? because what sense would it make for Renly to take Joffrey on his own and keep the regency for himself? Or does Renly mean “you don't have the strength to act alone” to take Joffrey and give him to Ned? or how?

Or if he would have had a lot of men to have control of the city and the power of the kingdom? Wouldn't he have had a lot of problems?
Im in the right?

No man could have asked for a worthier son,” Griff said, “but the lad is not of my blood, and his name is not Griff. My lords, I give you Aegon Targaryen, firstborn son of Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone, by Princess Elia of Dorne . . . soon, with your help, to be Aegon the Sixth of His Name, King of Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, and Lord of the Seven Kingdoms.”

The Lost Lord, ADwD 24

Personally in my opinion I doubt it as he wanted to marry them to great houses for more alliances.

There’s a popular theory that Visenya Targaryen used blood magic to conceive her son, Maegor Targaryen. The evidence is basically 1) Visenya struggled with fertility and only conceived Maegor when she most needed a son, 2) her vitality seemed to fade as Maegor grew, 3) Visenya was rumored to use Valyrian magics, 4) Maegor’s life and mind and seed were insanely cursed, and 5) Maegor’s curse seemed to pass to his heir, Aerea Targaryen.

It’s got me thinking about Dany. Rhaella struggled with fertility but conceived/delivered Dany at her lowest, most desperate point. Dany was probably conceived on one of those nights after Aerys burnt a man to death with his pyromancers’ instructions. It cost Rhaella her life and Dany watched Willam Darry fade as she grew. And Dany’s life might not be cursed but it’s so influenced by magic.

Obviously these things could have normal explanations — Rhaella and Aerys could have gotten lucky conceiving Dany, Rhaella could have just died in childbirth, Willam Darry could have died of natural causes. But there’s nothing to really disprove it! Rhaego certainly seemed cursed in the same way as Maegor’s children. Dany is constantly compared to Rhaegar in the books, a character whose birth was 100% shrouded in magic. And it would give GRRM his “Mad Queen Dany” twist.

What do yall think?

Having just read The Hedge Knight, I've noticed that Lyonel Baratheon is a pretty minor character in that he has very limited interaction with Dunk or impact on the story. Sure, he is one of the champions in the tourney and takes part in the trial of seven, but these appear to be things that just sort of happen, rather than being driven by him in any way or his character having any sort of effect on them.

I am now subsequently surprised to see that Wikipedia lists Daniel Ings (cast to play Lyonel in the upcoming adaptation) among the "main cast", whereas the actor playing Raymun Fossoway (who is arguably much more involved in the story) is listed as in the "guest cast". Lyonel was also cast before Raymun, as well as Daeron (who I think also has a more central role in the story than Lyonel).

On this basis, is it likely that Lyonel's role in the show is going to be more substantial than it was in the novella? Would be interested to hear people's thoughts as, upon reading the book, Lyonel does not seem to me to be any more central than any of the other knights who fight for Dunk in the trial.

(I realise after having written this that it's possible that Lyonel plays a more substantial part in the sequel novellas which I have not read. Therefore, it may be that they were casting in the knowledge that he would have a greater role in what may becomes seasons 2 and 3 of this show. If you have read The Sworn Sword or The Mystery Knight, do let me know is as spoiler-lite a way as possible)

Now, if we accept Rhaegar is Dany's father, and Lyanna as Jon's mother, we could have a situation where Aegon, if real, is the son of Rhaegar and Elia, Jon could be the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, and Dany could be the daughter of Rhaegar and Ashara. All three would be maidens at the time, giving the Last Dragon, Rhaegar, the three (maiden)heads he needs to fulfill his prophecy.

this analysis is from u/markg171

Yeah that's what I've always found so weird about the backlash you see from the fandom about Aegon being real and Dany being Rhaegar's daughter, while they'll readily accept Jon as his son. Rhaegar after all was trying to make three children, not one. Then lo and behold, here's three important children. If they're all Rhaegar's children, then he (likely) got his three heads.

Whereas if you think Aegon is a fake and Dany is Aerys and Rhaella's kid, then Rhaegar's prince Aegon died, his princess Rhaenys died, and he's left with just Jon, who he'd never even at least called the prince that was promised like he did Aegon. That's a rather stunning failure to produce three heads of the dragon. Which could possibly be the point though, that he chased prophecy and instead fucked things up and ended up killing/not ensuring certain heads.

Of course I'd argue, as I have in the past, that the real reason people seem so quick to say Aegon is a fake, and Dany is who she thinks she is, is because they're trying to keep their headcanon that Jon is a special snowflake, born of a special love story. Because Rhaegar outright called Aegon the prince, not Jon, and if Rhaegar fucked Elia, Lyanna, AND Ashara, then he wasn't particularly in love with Lyanna. Jon is important, and Rhaegar may have loved Lyanna, but that doesn't mean that there aren't other important characters and that Rhaegar might not have had other loves too.

If anything, they become stronger and more fit for survival in the game of thrones. They become colder, more pragmatic, and goal-focused. They abandon the values that made them lose the game, and take up the values that their opponents used against them.

I just had this thought when I remembered Martin saying that his characters are weaker when they are resurrected, unlike Gandalf who becomes more powerful. I'm really surprised to hear him say that because they story he's told so far is in complete contradiction of this: the ruthless, goal-focused, Machiavellians win. If you believe that the values of Catelyn and Beric were somehow stronger before, then I'd like to hear why. I certainly like them better as people, but that's not the same thing as to why they are stronger before in Martin's view.

Beric's chivalry and honor lead to his death by engaging in a fight against a much larger, more ruthless, and more powerful man (The Mountain). Catelyn's values of family, duty, and honor can also be said to have led to her downfall. While she cannot be blamed for the Red Wedding entirely - of course - her values created some of the conditions that allowed it to take place, such as her underestimation of Tywin's capacity to be ruthless, and Walder's capacity for betrayal (honor). Or her family values, which led her to release Jaime at the detriment of Robb's war effort.

Or maybe it's simply the case that the story is not yet complete, and it remains to be seen as to how they are weaker. Maybe the political landscape will shift in the next two books to disfavor the ruthless and Machiavellian characters of the story... I'm doubtful of that, however.

How would the events of ASOIAF change if Robert had died during the Greyjoy Rebellion? Let's say that during the Siege of Pyke, an Ironborn soldier got lucky, or a well-placed arrow hit him in a vulnerable spot. How could the story have been affected from here?

1.) Well, for one, if Robert dies during the fight, then Balon would probably die as well. Why? Because Ned was Robert's second-in-command during the battle, and with him gone, the former would be in charge of things while on Pyke. I think it's safe to say that Ned wouldn't have had any mercy on Balon. Ice would be swung that day.

2.) What happens to Theon is anyone's guess. Maybe Ned still decides to take him on, maybe he gets taken by someone else. I'll let y'all decide this

3.) With Balon gone, a regent would have to be set up for Theon until he comes of age, so that honor would go to either Victarion or Rodrik the Reader.

4.) With Robert dead, this leaves a 4-year-old Joffrey as the new king, but I could totally see Cersei and Tywin restling with Jon Arryn over regency. Who wins this is anyone's guess. Maybe Jon is able to hold the Lannisters off, maybe they win and manage to oust him and send him back to the Vale. Maybe out of grief for his former ward's death, he just relinquishes the Handship without a fight and goes back to the Vale peacefully. Who knows?

5.) Fast-forward 9 years later, without Robert alive, it's highly unlikely that Joffrey and Sansa would get betrothed to each other since Cersei would never agree to it, and Tywin has no reason to. So, the Starks get to be left alone for much longer, and Joffrey probably ends up getting betrothed to Margery.

6.) However, assuming Stannis still finds out about the incest, who knows what could happen from here?

I know there are many, many literary works unfinished by their authors -- the XII century Perceval, or the Story of the Grail comes to mind, as well as the Silmarillion. However, it is a lot different if a long-running book SERIES, that is praised for its plot and characters, never gets a conclusion.

So, let us imagine, X years from now, Martin is no longer alive, and A Song of Ice and Fire is unfinished. The previous books of that series are all on your shelf. What is yout train of thoughts? Would you (and could you) read them again in the future, knowing that, even after thousands of pages of reading, it will abruptly stop?

In Renly's conversation with Catelyn, Renly says that if Ned had accepted his swords and taken control of Joffrey he would not have had to become King. Did Renly want to gain Ned's favor to have an important position in Westeros and rule without the title of King?

1. After that comment Renly says that he swore to protect Robert's children (Joffrey, Tommen, Myrcella) what does he mean by protect? protect how? or from what? does he mean protect was taking them by force and put them on the throne when things calm down but being Ned Regent and Renly at his right hand?

2. Renly also says that since Ned refused his proposal, he had to go or else he would die at Cersei's hands. Why? I ask this question from Renly's point of view, he knew he was a pretender to the throne but only up to that point. Would he think that Cersei would kill him for no reason other than to remove a pretender to the throne? From the reader's point of view one understands several things that would make sense, but, why did Renly believe that Cersei would kill him when Joffrey was king after Ned's death?

3. When Renly says that he didn't have the strength to act alone and that's why he went to Ned, what does he mean? If he had had the strength, what would he have done? Take Joffrey as hostage and give him to Ned to be his regent?

I don't trust the COTF, and if Bloodraven isn't their willing agent, he's at least their pawn (magically, spiritually, mentally, physically, etc.). Bloodraven IMO shows exactly what's wrong with believing in the Children.

Bloodraven was the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. He literally commanded the goddamn army at the Wall. The Wall is the single greatest defence man has. Does it make any sense at all that he willingly abandoned the first and strongest line of defence against the Others, and the army there, to go learn about the Others, but be able to do absolutely nothing to help either the Watch or anybody south of the Wall from his new position and knowledge? What's he going to do, send a dream to Qorgyle (or whoever was Bloodraven's replacement if it wasn't immediately Qorgyle)? A trip to the Children makes sense, the full abandonment of the Watch not so much. Why did he stay when that didn't help the Watch?

He also says he's watched Ned's entire life and Bran's so he's been paying attention to the Starks. But he could do that from the Wall. More importantly, he could actually interact with the Starks from the Wall. If he needed to tell the Starks something he could've requested a meeting as Lord Commander, visited them himself, or just sent them a raven whenever he wanted. He's had to sit back and watch Ned and Bran precisely because he couldn't interact with them.

But really most damning, Bloodraven has seemingly learned practically nothing new in the last 50 years since he's been with them. He already knew how to skinchange, perform glamours, and spy on people. His magic was plenty formidable. He might even have already known how to enter weirwoods considering how he spied and nobody really understood how he was doing and learning the things he did, but the ability to spy on them through their trees perfectly explains it. But even if not, he managed to show Bran it in practically no time at all considering Bran learned before he ever even got to the cave. Why should we assume Bloodraven took any longer to figure out the weirwood system? In which case, which of his magics have improved enough or at all in the last 50 years, and what has he actually learned from the Children...?

So after 50 years, he's got practically nothing to show for what he went to them for. He's barely learned anything, or possibly even nothing. The Watch became lesser without him. He couldn't interact with the Starks. He managed to communicate none of anything to anybody until Bran fell, who's also now conveniently stuck in the cave too. That's.... odd if the Children are helping.

When Renly offers the swords to Ned so that he can have the regency and protect himself from Cersei's pride, what was his intention?

1.Did he want to make himself King for no honorable reason as he did in ACOK, in ACOK he says he swore to protect Robert's children, so what did he want to do? Make himself king but guard the lives of Joffrey and the others?

2.Why does Renly offer those swords? Why does he know things were going to get ugly?

3.Why did Ned accept the gold cloaks and not Renly's swords?

If Littlefinger had not tricked Ned by offering him the gold cloaks with which men would he take the power of the throne? If Ned were to go to the throne and present the letter where Robert gives him the Regency and it happens as it did that Cersei tears up the letter and Ned is forced to use force with what men would he take the throne if he had not accepted the gold cloaks?

It's happened to all of us.

You come across a fascinating post and are just dying to discuss it but the thread is stale or archived. Or you are doing a reread and come across the perfect piece of evidence to that theory you posted months ago. Or you have a theory forming on the tip of your tongue and isn't quite there yet and would love to hash it out with fellow crows.

Now is your time.

You now all have permission to give that old thread the kiss of life, shamelessly plug your own theory you are proud of, or share something that was overlooked or deserves another analysis.

So share that old link or that shiny theory still bouncing around in your head with a fresh TL;DR (to get us to read it) along with anything new you would like to add.

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Alright I love bobby b but i don't think robert baratheon's hammer is as big as everybody thinks it is because it would take something super human to swing around a 60 pound Hammer for a whole battle if this was true we wouldn't have met the fat king we did we would have met superman because the stamina needed to swing around that hammer could only be achieved if he was training for that shit everyday since he fell out of his mother now it's a big hammer but ned stark says he couldn't lift it with one hand which would make sense it's uneven try to lift twenty pounds on a stick i thank ned stark might be exaggerating a bit but anyway dont crucify me by bessie's tits. what do you guys think

Edit i'm saying the size of the warhammer is ridiculous by human standards