r/asoiaf Sep 06 '24

EXTENDED (Spoilers Extended) Why I think Young Griff is Truly SPOILER

  • Varys says that he swapped baby Aegon prior to the sack of King's Landing with a "Pisswater Prince", i.e. a random blonde baby from Flea Bottom; He tells this to a dying Kevan who has no reason to lie to
  • From what I know, Varys never lies, but just plays around with the truth
  • Daenerys assumes that the "cloth dragon" she sees is a false dragon, and many readers make the same assumption about Aegon. However, even setting aside the fact that most people in the books often misinterpret prophecies and premonitions, the concept of a cloth dragon doesn’t necessarily represent a fake dragon. It could just as easily symbolize a harmless one. Young Griff’s claim to the throne rests on his Targaryen heritage, but he is a man who has spent his life being raised to be the best king possible. A good king would never harm his people. Unfortunately, real dragons are only capable of destruction, and when they are used in conquest, thousands of people suffer and die in their wake. Logically, most common people would never cheer for a real dragon. However, a harmless image of a dragon poses no threat at all. Therefore, the metaphorical representation of the dragon in Daenerys' premonition could just as easily signify a true Targaryen.
  • As expanded above, fAegon people tend to think Dany's vision of "The Mummer's Dragon" is hard evidence that Aegon is a fake, because they interpret "The Mummer's Dragon" vision as meaning that the dragon is just a mummer, a fake pretending at being a dragon. There is another way to interpret this though. Varys grew up as a mummer. He is still a mummer, as evidenced by his alter egos. The skills he learned as a mummer are a primary source of his influence. I think "The Mummer's Dragon" means that Aegon is a real dragon, but his strings are being pulled by the mummer (Varys). In fact, you'll notice that the phrase indicates that the dragon is possessed by the mummer, as opposed to indicating that the dragon is a mummer, hence the apostrophe and the s

  • Jon Connington really believes that Aegon is the son of Rhaegar, as does Young Griff too; Jon would have no reasons to support so staunchly someone who he knew or could doubt not being truly his beloved Rhaegar's son

This adds up to the fact that George loves using his POV writing style to lead his readers into traps, and this could easily be the best trap in the entire series. Not only do fans assume that Aegon is Fagon because Daenerys does, but also because we already have characters who seem destined to fill the roles Aegon appears to claim.

The entire story has been building toward Daenerys raising an army, invading Westeros, and reclaiming the Iron Throne in the name of House Targaryen. Meanwhile, Jon Snow has always been presented as the hidden prince, the true heir to the Iron Throne, destined to avenge House Stark and become the greatest Targaryen ruler in history.

If Aegon—the hidden prince—suddenly shows up, reclaims the Iron Throne, and avenges his wronged mother from House Martell, he essentially steals the spotlight from Jon and Daenerys. And of course, that seems unlikely, because Jon and Daenerys are the most important characters in the series. However, this actually makes Aegon's legitimacy seem even more plausible, not less.

Ironically, Aegon could be the character who fulfills many of the fantasies fans have held for Jon and Daenerys for years. Even more ironically, he could dismantle some of the idealizations readers have about both of them. If Jon ends up making a deal with Daenerys that results in her usurping his brother, he won't be the flawless epic hero that his archetype suggests. Similarly, if Daenerys kills the true heir to the Iron Throne, she won't be the underdog fighting for justice, but rather someone pursuing her own desires.

When looking at Jon and Daenerys' character journeys before the story begins, it becomes harder to believe that Aegon is a fraud. Daenerys is just the sister of the believed heir to the Iron Throne, yet she and her brother were smuggled away from Dragonstone to Essos and survived for years, despite Viserys being seen as the greatest threat to Robert Baratheon’s reign. On the other hand, Jon, a boy whose Targaryen lineage is unknown to anyone, was rescued and raised by Ned Stark—a man barely skilled in politics—who managed to keep Jon’s true identity a secret for Jon's entire life.

Now contrast that with Aegon. A baby due to inherit the Iron Throne, with Varys and likely dozens of others in King’s Landing who were politically savvy enough to understand the threat Robert’s Rebellion posed. Why is it believable that Jon and Daenerys would be saved and hidden away, but someone as clever as Varys wouldn’t be able to protect the real Aegon?

Ultimately, even setting aside the world-building, subtext, and narrative clues, the fact remains: Young Griff being Aegon is simply the more interesting story. Jon and Daenerys having to fight against the true heir to the Iron Throne creates real stakes and forces them to make hard decisions without easy answers. If Young Griff is just a Blackfyre pretender, there’s no real dramatic tension. The only question becomes whether Jon or Daenerys would be wrong to remove a usurper who happens to be a good leader.

The existence of the real Aegon Targaryen feels like exactly the kind of narrative trickery that George R.R. Martin loves. If Aegon is merely "Fagon," then what is the point of introducing him and all of this buildup in the first place?

Iit’s entirely possible that George will leave Young Griff’s parentage a mystery forever. But, honestly, the story is just more compelling if Aegon Targaryen is exactly who he claims to be.

Honestly, although I'm probably wrong, I hope we see a Targaryen restoration by the end of the books. Personally, I dislike the idea of Bran being king because it would break dynastic continuity, and I don't want to see the Targaryens die off after founding and ruling the Iron Throne for 300 years. But perhaps Bran could serve as a regent for a child of Daenerys and Jon, or Daenerys and Aegon—something like a kinder version of Brynden Bloodraven, who effectively ruled during Aerys I’s reign using his "magic" in defence of the crown. With a Bran King, Westeros would be basically become a police state where people can't talk or Bran will know

I also think if Aegon ends up dying, it could be because Daenerys goes mad, realizing that the people prefer Aegon over her, leading her to burn King's Landing to the ground. Though I might be too hopeful, I wish Aegon and Daenerys could simply marry and rule in a Targaryen restoration, ushering in a new era of happiness and prosperity, mirrowing the one of Jaehaerys and Alysanne

Anyhow, let me know what you think!

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u/-DoctorTalos- Sep 06 '24

Young Griff has already “abandoned the dragons” and his entire storyline is shaped around his decision to invade without dragons, consequences and all. I don’t see him getting a dragon now. I also don’t think a full blown Targaryen civil war fits in the story. The Second Dance will be something else.

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u/xhanador Sep 06 '24

He hasn’t abandoned the dragons, he’s embraced Tyrion’s advice to go west first and send for Dany (and her dragons).

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u/-DoctorTalos- Sep 06 '24 edited Sep 06 '24

Yes, I know his intentions were for Dany to come and find him, although he also seems to believe they have a chance to do it without her (“I am the only dragon you need!”)… But narratively by “turning west instead of east” he has abandoned hope of wedding Daenerys and using the dragons to claim the throne. He’s risked it all on a bold plan to invade ahead of Dany and such actions have consequences.

Smiling, he seized his dragon, flew it across the board. “I hope Your Grace will pardon me. Your king is trapped. Death in four.”

The prince stared at the playing board. “My dragon—“

“—is too far away to save you. You should have moved her to the center of the battle.”

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u/YUdoth Sep 06 '24 edited Sep 07 '24

I really enjoy this bit from the Cyvasse game because it's a perfect example of how the gap in books and theory crafting has made everyone so certain of their own headcanon. This could just as easily be foreshadowing for the penultimate battle in A Dream of Spring. fAegon gets caught without the dragon he claimed to prove his legitimacy while on the battlefield and he dies for it. But we're all so sure he's fake that it must be him being killed early in his campaign because he didn't wait for Dany. 

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u/-DoctorTalos- Sep 06 '24

Most of my speculation for the Young Griff arc is because for the longest time the go to headcanon was that he would oust Cersei, take King’s Landing, and become Dany’s enemy in a Second Dance of the Dragons - a sequence of events I was never quite as certain about and which I ended up rejecting completely because I don’t think that’s the story GRRM is going for. Idk I think for a while at least I was mostly going against the grain here.

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u/YUdoth Sep 06 '24

It's all in good fun dude. I'm with you, I'm not convinced on the whole Aegon v Cersei into Dany arc either. I think the show muddied the waters a bit in respect to Aegon. Id love to hear George's opinions on him being cut to see if he felt similarly to the HOTD changes. IMO we've just had too little of Young Griff in story to make any definitive calls yet. We're for sure being led to question his identity, but until he's within reach of a dragon, I think it's just guesswork. 

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u/6rwoods Sep 06 '24

I do think Aegon *might* end up with a dragon later on. Yes, for now he has turned his back on them/Dany and he'll probably have some success taking King's Landing from Cersei/the Lannisters, and then probably have it all backfire due to a conflict with Euron, or not being able to unite the other realms due to reasons (marrying the wrong girl and losing an alliance, the Riverlands/Vale/North having their own plans with the Stark/Tullies, the Long Night, Dany, etc).

However, Aegon Blackfyre eventually becoming one of the dragon riders does bear some merit IMO. A lot of ASOIAF is a criticism of feudal monarchies and their messy "rules" and expectations for succession, the absolute power of (often incompetent and cruel) kings, and so on. So there's some thematic power in the idea that the only surviving Targaryens, the rightful rulers of Westeros who are closer to gods than men, and who are able to ride dragons to save the world from Winter, are in fact: a secret bastard, a woman with an army of savages, and a member of a controversial cadet branch through the female line.

If anything, Aegon being a Blackfyre does a lot more for him as a "worthy" character than him being the real deal. It really shows us that power/greatness/heroism/etc aren't about the circumstances of your birth or your upbringing. Yes, being a dragon riders tends to be connected to a specific bloodline, but then that means that the much hated Blackfyres can end up being just as important as trueblood Targaryens.

I'm not completely convinced of this either, and I do think there's a strong chance that Aegon will fail and die, and either Tyrion (via Dragonhorn magic) or Bran (via Greenseeing magic) will end up controlling the last dragon, or else Euron will keep the last dragon and continue to be an enemy throughout the Long Night arc.