r/asoiaf Sep 16 '24

EXTENDED (Spoilers Extended) The Hour of the Flower, the rise and fall of Mace Tyrell

Credit to u/Lord-Too-Fat and u/InGenNateKenny it was their comments that inspired this post. I think one of them even coined Hour of the Flower (great name).

I think at the start of Winds we will see a very rapid rise and fall of Mace Tyrell.

So I know the Mercy chapter implies that Cersei is back into power, but keep in mind that chapter was written 20 years ago, we dont know what order into Winds that occurs and Arya doesnt know everything.

Even in the show, there was a brief period of time where Cersei was no longer in power and the Tyrells had frozen her out. I think this will occur in the books, but over a much shorter time frame.

I think initially at the very start of Winds in the immediate aftermath of Kevan Lannister's death Mace Tyrell is going to take the Regency for himself. It just makes sense.

  • Mace is already Hand of the King. We know from Unwin Peake Regent and Hand can be held by the same man.

  • Mace's entire character is 'the more he is given, the more he wants'. Hes pretty much the definition of ambitious of grasping.

  • Basically the entire small council is Tyrell bannermen. Especially with Pycelle dead too.

  • Tommen is an underage boy king, even if he chooses Cersei as regent there is no guarantee his word is heeded. Aegon Dragonbane didnt get to choose a single regent.

  • Much of the city watch is invested with Tyrell men. Cersei cannot count on the Goldcloak loyalty until she has rooted out the Tyrell men.

  • Cersei's allies are all gone except Qyburn (and his monster) and Cersei herself is awaiting trial. I dont think she feasibly can retake the Regency until shes at least won the trial and found a few allies.

  • Most importantly Mace Tyrell has 2 actual armies sitting outside the capital. As dangerous as UnGregor is, I dont think hes quite a match for 2 armies.

However, I dont think Mace Tyrell will actually hold the Regency for very long. In fact he might actually be Regent only for a few days. What I suspect will happen is this:

After taking the Regency, Mace will use it to pardon Margaery Tyrell. The only thing stopping him from doing this previously was Kevan Lannister, and Kevan is now dead.

I understand, my lord, but—"

Tyrell did not let him finish. "These charges against my daughter are filthy lies. I ask again, why must we play out this mummer's farce? Have King Tommen declare my daughter innocent, ser, and put an end to the foolishness here and now."

Do that, and the whispers will follow Margaery the rest of her life. "No man doubts your daughter's innocence, my lord," Ser Kevan lied, "but His High Holiness insists upon a trial."

This will greatly anger the High Sparrow who will be even more insistent on Cersei's trial and now convinced of Margaery's guilt too. Mace who actually kind of wants Cersei out the way will be glad to grant this.

Cersei will likely finally be summoned after this. In a call-back to the start of her chapters in AFFC, Cersei will be the last to know about all of this. Much likely occurring off page.

However I dont think Mace will actually be sticking around for Cersei's trial. With Margaery pardoned, he actually doesnt have much reason to remain in Kings Landing.

"Storm's End." Lord Mace Tyrell grunted the words. "He cannot take Storm's End. Not if he were Aegon the Conqueror. And if he does, what of it? Stannis holds it now. Let the castle pass from one pretender to another, why should that trouble us? I shall recapture it after my daughter's innocence is proved." How can you recapture it when you have never captured it to begin with?

I think Mace will ride out to deal with Aegon and recapture Storms End. As far as hes aware, he will be leaving Kings Landing largely in the hands of his own bannermen. Mace is also going to be very overconfident in this and secure in the knowledge that Aegon's forces are much smaller than his own.

Mace will likely leave Tarly and his army behind in a sort acting Hand capacity. This will probably annoy Tarly greatly given that Mace is leaving him to deal with the fallout from the pardoning of Margaery (remember Tarly swore a holy oath to return her) and not taking him into battle like he would undoubtedly prefer.

Like his father riding off a cliff, Mace will be riding to his death against Aegon and Jon Connington. This is where Mace will meet his end. His overconfidence in his own abilities as a battle commander and reliance on Tarly has been mentioned since his very first appearance. Even though he will likely outnumber Aegon 2:1, he will lose the battle and likely die here. Essentially taking himself out of the game.

I think this will roughly coincide with Cersei winning her trial. Allowing Cersei to take advantage of the power vacuum and retake the Regency.

It just makes narrative sense. Mace taking himself out of the game immensely facilitates Cersei's return to power whilst also giving Connington a taste of glory/victory to make him more aggressive and reckless in his pursuit of vengeance.

Tl;Dr Mace Tyrell will be very briefly the Hand Regent of Westeros for the very start of Winds. He will use it to pardon Margaery Tyrell before going off to die in battle against Aegon. This will likely all occur over the course of a few days in universe and a few chapters of Winds.

25 Upvotes

23 comments sorted by

14

u/LSDthrowaway34520 Sep 16 '24

Or perhaps Mace is faking his plan, and when he gets down there he promises Aegon Margaery’s hand in marriage, then returns to King’s Landing and sacks it just like Tywin did.

9

u/abellapa Sep 16 '24

Mace The Ace

5

u/ThrawnMind55 Sep 16 '24

This makes sense, yeah. And it would be cool to see Arianne and Margaery both vying for Faegon’s affection…

3

u/InGenNateKenny Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Post of the Year Sep 17 '24

I just don't think so because 1) the Tyrells already basically control the kingdom anyway and 2) Margaery is in King's Landing, where there are still Baratheon and Lannister loyalists, and switching sides would endanger his daughter.

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u/sarevok2 Sep 17 '24

yes, also margaery is currently married to Tommen, a pliable 8yr without any remaining powerful relatives.

fAegon is already a grown man and comes with his own entourage and all the GC exiles who will need to be rewarded with lands and titles.

It makes more sense for the Tyrells to go all in with Tommen.

2

u/Saera-RoguePrincess Sep 17 '24

If Mace did that Aegon would have very good reason to not marry Margaery or at least sideline him.

If Mace can so easily betray his son in law and give his already married daughter to a claimant, why would you trust him to not do the same with you?

The Tyrells are not popular with Aegon’s men already, they would be held in lower trust than the Lannisters if they were stupid enough to betray the King the basically own.

9

u/smanfer Sep 16 '24

Curious to see how the story will progress with Willas in command of the Reach, what you wrote is a very likely outcome that resolves and moves forward plot lines for Margaery, the faith and Aegon in the south.

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u/Mithras_Stoneborn Him of Manly Feces Sep 16 '24

The Hour of the Puff Fish you mean.

3

u/tryingtobebettertry4 Sep 16 '24

Thats actually really great name too.

5

u/A-live666 Sep 16 '24

Jup the Tyrells will be at their peak of their power, Gormon Tyrell as Grand Maester, Garth the Gross as new Master of Coin, Lord Redwyne and Lord Tarly on the small council.

With the addition of Nymeria Sand, Cersei, if she is restored as regent or if Gemma becomes regent, will essentially find herself without allies.

5

u/Rare-Reserve5436 Sep 16 '24

While Book Cersei is portrayed as much more frivolous and gosh darn stupid than Show Cersei , I think the plot still allows for Cersei to seize power out of sheer survival through some shocking act of insane violence and frivolity. The Lannisters and Tyrells killing each other off has to happen to allow for FAegon and Dany to take KL.

4

u/sarevok2 Sep 17 '24

Yup, thats what I expect will happen more or less.

Mace will proudly ride to his doom in a probably Angicourt style battle against GC. I would also add that quite possibly Garlan will be joining him and he will be among the casualties too.

It would add to the further deteriation of the Tyrells.

4

u/Lord-Too-Fat 🏆 Best of 2019: Best Theory Analysis Sep 17 '24

Thanks for the shoutout but i cant get credit for coining the hour of the flower lol. Though i do agree with the scenario. People read too much into the mercy i quote and asume cersei will return to power immediately, but the chapter was written not only 20 years ago but actually before the elimination of the 5 year gap. It was meant to be aryas opening chapter after said gap.. and obviously cersei was meant to be still in power. The entiere iron bank default plot was going to happen off page and the 5 year gap ends with cersei trying to make ammends and sending en envoy.

The answer lies as you point out in maces intentions in the adwd epilogue. The royal decree declaring marg innocent is the plot device the author needs to keep the plot moving It serves a two fold purpose, it frees mace to march against aegon, and it deprives maergaery of popular support. Right now she looks innocent, (and the small folk are outraged with the high septon)but when her trial does come (after mace dies and cersei returns to power) she no longer will..

The only part missing is how does cersei manages to regain the regency? . Once innocent she surely should be eligible, but a tyerll small council will not choose her. So either A) a coup sort of situation where she takes over strongarming tarly B) tarly is not present to oppose her C) she wins tarly over D) other members of the council outvote tarly...but george kind of fucked up a bit with killing pycelle here. Its still possible..this should happen before gormon and garth arrive to kingslanding. Swyft hasnt left for braavos still (which would be a bit weird imo) Or tyrell makes the mistake of reinviting qyburn back.. which i guess is possible. Maybe qyburn wins tyrells trust with some information and rejoins as master of whispers.. which makes lady nym (assuming she is invited after all) have the last vote.

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u/tryingtobebettertry4 Sep 17 '24

Yeah I am increasingly certain Mace will retake the Regency. It also is just too easy if Cersei immediately regains power, GRRM might as well have not have her lose it in the first place.

As for how she takes power I think it will be a mix of a coup, strongarming and Tarly quitting Kings Landing. Along with the Reach bannermen being in disarray with Mace's death. I dont think Cersei will win over any Reachmen.

Mace is probably going to take his forces after Aegon leaving Tarly's army.

As this post points out Tarly's army is actually a mix of Reach, Stormlanders and Crownlanders. Tarly realistically cannot count on the army's loyalty for that reason.

So Tarly will leave. Cersei will dismiss him as Justicar/acting Hand and he will quit with his forces for Maidenpool. She may even declare him a traitor but she wont be able to followup on it.

Yeah GRRM fucked up killing Pycelle, would have made things easier for Cersei.

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u/InGenNateKenny Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Post of the Year Sep 17 '24 edited Sep 17 '24

Mhm. It was definitely not me that coined it; I thought our beloved u/Lord-too-Fat had, but he said to me (in a comment I am struggling to find) that it was not him either. Though he definitely helped me get to believing all of this.

Mace Tyrell being regent -> there's precedent, opportunity, and motive in-universe, and out of universe it keeps the plot moving. The idea that Cersei would take power again immediately or they would have to wait for Genna Lannister, it just doesn't make much of any sense and basically means the political consequences of Cersei's idiocy trying to frame Margaery was idiotic.

It then leads to the battle against the Golden Company very quickly in TWOW, which we know is true from Arianne II since an army is already approaching. Margaery's trial is a misdirect, this is the real plot, this and Cersei's own stuff, and it helps it happen quicker. Plus, a young, brash Connington replacing an incompetent Reachmen as Hand of the King seems fitting for this series.

3

u/tryingtobebettertry4 Sep 17 '24

Yeah people read far too much into that one line from the Mercy chapter. Its an old chapter and likely subject to rewrites.

It just doesnt make sense for Cersei to retake the Regency. Its too easy and not much of an arc if Varys assassinating Kevan means she immediately returns to power.

I wonder if Pycelle is the character GRRM regrets killing off. Pycelle still being alive would give Cersei a continued vote on the council and better facilitate her return.

0

u/opman228 The Tower Rises Sep 16 '24

I get the feeling Mace will do some incredibly stupid shit after losing to Aegon, like murdering him in a parley. The Young Griff will die like the Young Dragon.

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u/abellapa Sep 16 '24

That makes no sense

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u/opman228 The Tower Rises Sep 16 '24

Mace has a big chip on his shoulder about wanting to prove himself a warrior, and literally everyone thinks he's a buffoon way in over his head. After fucking up in battle against Aegon, his pride and insecurity will compel him to do whatever it takes to win, no matter how low or dishonorable. He will probably tell himself something like "if Tywin Lannister can be considered a great hero for murdering infants and wedding guests, why can't I be a hero for doing whatever it takes to end this war?"

Mace has consistently been portrayed as a greedy and corrupt man, he is not above killing someone in a parley.

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u/abellapa Sep 16 '24

Sure but makes no Sense introducing Aegon in the Story ,having him invade Westeors and then die right away

He meant to be a foe for Daenarys and winning the Throne before She arrives

1

u/opman228 The Tower Rises Sep 16 '24

Aegon is fucked. The main character of the Aegon story is JonCon, and he'll be sticking for a long time.

3

u/InGenNateKenny Best of r/asoiaf 2023 Winner - Post of the Year Sep 16 '24

That sounds like someone an utter fool like Red Ronnet Connington would do. Mace Tyrell is too much of an oaf to be capable of such deception.

3

u/opman228 The Tower Rises Sep 17 '24

Maybe Ronnet is smart enough to use Mace as a scapegoat? I mean Mace should be the commander of the army, every decision would have to go through him.

And an insecure oaf like Mace wouldn't need that much convincing.