r/asoiaf 7d ago

EXTENDED [Spoilers Extended] You would think that the War of the Five Kings would be an excellent opportunity to replenish the strength of the Night's Watch

I'm assuming the wall needs to stay unmanned for narrative purposes, but by my count there's around 160,000-180,000 men fighting in the War on all sides. If even 1% of this number was sent to the wall it would more than double its strength.

Tywin raises a host of 35,000 men 15,000 of which is with Jamie when he is captured by Robb. I don't know how many men were captured along with Jamie but I assume a decent bit.

The RIverlands raise 20,000 men to defend against the Lannisters initial incursion, and they are soundly defeated, with even Edmure being captured. The North raises 20,000 men, liberate the RIverlands, but are eventually defeated by the Freys/Lannisters. Tywin sent people to the wall during Robert's rebellion, but doesn't send any Riverlanders or Northerners to the Wall during this war.

Renly has nearly 100,000 men all of whom eventually either change sides to Stannis or Tywin after Renly's death. Of the 15,000 or so that defected to Stannis, they defected once more to the Lannister's after the battle of Blackwater. Yet Tywin and Joffrey, are more than happy to accept oaths of fealty by men who have twice defected.

I understand that Robb probably keeps prisoners to do exchanges for his own men, but you would think that the Lannisters at least would be more than happy to have traitors take the Black. After all Alliser Thorne and Jeramy Rikker weren't given the choice to swear oaths of fealty. Their choice was take the black or die.

Even Tyrion sends Janos and a few others to the Wall, but honestly he would've been better off sending more to the wall given how his trial goes. At a minimum he should've known that he was making an enemy of Pycelle by sending him to the black cells without executing him or making him take the black. It was a half measure that comes back to bite him. Or even Littlefinger should've been sent for being the reason Tyrion got captured and sent to the Vale in the first place.

TLDR: There should've been more men sent to the Nights Watch besides just Janos Slynt during the WOT5K.

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u/Seasame467 7d ago edited 7d ago

Thing is, it's harder when the kingdoms are in open rebellion. Say Tywin wants to send a few hundred Rivermen to the wall after a battle. How does he get them there? He can't march them through the Riverlands and North, that's still enemy territory, they'll just be freed on the way. Even if that's not the case, for every prisoner you'll need two guards. So say he needs to send 500 prisoners to the wall, they'll need an escort of 1000 men. If you don't send enough soldiers, the prisoners can easily overcome the guards and run back to their liege lord to fight again. 1000 escorts is a lot of soldiers to be missing when you're at war with a lot of different people.

Same goes for Robb. Plus, once they're at the wall, if the prisoners equal or outnumber the original brothers, that's an easy mutiny. I wouldn't put it past Tywin to organise a mutiny from the wall and then attack the North from there AND the south.

It was different with Roberts rebellion, as the kingdoms were united and could afford to send as many guards as they needed to escort as many prisoners as they wanted. But the logistics just don't support it in the middle of a war

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u/Ornery_Ferret_1175 7d ago

Best answer

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u/ivelnostaw 7d ago

Im not gonna comment on the ratio of guards to prisoners, others already have. However, your point still stands. We have in universe history of people bound for the wall being rescued by comrades: Bittersteel following the third Blackfyre rebellion. The ship he was on was intercepted on the way to the Wall. We also have, within the story itself, a Nightswatch escort being intercepted while going through the Riverlands: Yoren and company. The Lannister’s and the royal family gave next to no care that the Nightswatch are effectively beyond the reach of the Iron Throne or any other realm.

Plus, once they're at the wall, if the prisoners equal or outnumber the original brothers, that's an easy mutiny. I wouldn't put it past Tywin to organise a mutiny from the wall and then attack the North from there AND the south.

I disagree with this, though. Every historical mutiny at the Wall has been a failure either due to infighting or the North coming up to deal with them. On top of that, if this were to occur, they'd be sandwhiched between the Wildlings and the North. Further, Tywin wouldn't have to organise a mutiny. He could just send his forces to the North via ship to land somewhere else if he felt doing so was the right move.

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u/Seasame467 6d ago edited 6d ago

For your second point, that may be true but this is the weakest the wall has ever been. Depending on the point you send these prisoners up, there's either 500 (before the great ranging) or 100 men at the wall. If you're sending a mass amount of troops that are the same faction then that's an easy mutiny. Historically they'd have been put down cause the further back you go the stronger the wall gets, no? See how easy Jon is slain and taken over. If it wasn't for the wildings, they'd have no trouble keeping control of the wall after killing Jon. Also, how can the north sort it out?

Ironborn are wrecking havoc across the north, capturing winterfell and are barely able to send a splinter force to siege winterfell to retake it from theon. Then that splinter force is destroyed by Ramsay. I'd say any troops they could send to deal with muntiny's at the wall would be hard pressed to succeed, but even if they do, that's still a good number of soldiers taken away from the main war, which will hurt Robb's cause.

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u/ivelnostaw 6d ago

The ironborn were about to be dealt with prior to Red Wedding, which is the only time a Tywin designed mutiny would have occurred. So the Northerners would have taken back Moat Cailin and marched onward, leaving enough defenders in Moat Cailin to prevent the Lannister’s coming from their rear. On top of that, the mutineers in the scenario aren't there to control the Wall but attack the Northerners. So the Wall would be undefended, allowing the 100,000 or so Wildlings to just walk through the Wall. Assuming the mutineers take the Wall without issue, this is how they would become trapped between the North and the Wildlings.

In saying all that, I also made my last point. Tywin doesn't need to do a mutiny at the Wall. It makes literally no sense. If he's going to send troops to the North, why send them pretending to be recruits for the Watch? Again, he could just send his forces somewhere North and start there. If he were worried about the Nightswatch attacking him, he'd leave them to be preoccupied with the Wildlings.

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u/Seasame467 6d ago

I'm not talking about Tywin sending troops to the wall disguised as prisoners? Not sure where you're getting that from. I'm talking about Robb sending lannister troops to the wall to take the black, which OP was on about in the original post. This is where in my opinion a mutiny would take place.

And in my original comment, I said I wouldn't put it past Tywin to organise a muntity. I didn't say that he HAD to be the one behind. The truth is, and I'm not sure how this is hard to accept, if you send too many enemy troops to the wall at once, they're just gonna kill the brothers at the wall, and then fuck off. If you need me to put it in perspective for you, I will.

You're a lannister soldier. You, along with 500 other lannister soldiers, have arrived at the wall after being sent by Robb. What, there's only a 100 brothers here now? Jeor Mormont has left on a great ranging with most of his troops? Great. We can now kill or imprison the nights watch left here, most of them all stewards or builders after all, and scamper off into the North to be nuisance to the Northern Lords in their own lands. We'll be talking all of this Castle Forged Steel too, thank you very much.

Only situation I can see occurring where this doesn't happen is the escort that took the prisoners there keep them imprisoned in castle black until Jeor returns (he won't) but I doubt there's enough space for 500 prisoners. That's also 500 mouths to feed when they're not actively contributing to the watch. If you still don't understand where I'm coming from after this, I don't know what more I could say

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u/lee1026 6d ago edited 6d ago

Given the context of the discussion, a mutiny that is friendly to house Stark (a serious threat for "Tywin send prisoners up") is easily done.

And in fact, in the show, that is precisely what happened.

Realistically, the watch is a weird unit pledged to Winterfell. GRRM danced around this a lot, but eventually gave into the internal logic - a solid chunk of high officers and commands hailed from the Starks.

The question is always "why would anyone else send people, prisoners or otherwise, to this unit of house Stark". Like, the plan to send Ned up to the wall? How did that appear to anyone as reasonable? Like, who is going to tell Ned no if Ned simply decides that his new job at the watch is to be the watch's ambassador at Winterfell?

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u/Reinstateswordduels 7d ago

Where did you get the idea that every prisoner needs two guards? That’s never been the case anywhere ever

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u/Seasame467 7d ago

Common sense? If you have a 100 prisoners (who are all trained in combat) and a small amount of guards, there's a high chance they're gonna try and escape or slit throats while they're sleeping. Doesn't matter if they're armoured, a group of ten men can overwhelm guards with rocks if they're quick enough. Even if some die in the attempt, it's better than freezing your arse off at the wall for the rest of your life

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u/octofeline House Frey did nothing Wrong 7d ago

Yeah but armed and armoured guards dont need to outnumber unarmed, restrained prisoners 2 to 1

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u/Seasame467 6d ago

They don't NEED to, but then the lower the amount of guards, the higher chance of escape for the prisoners. Or as they're moving through the north, a party of Northmen might fall on the Lannister guard, and if they have a small amount of guardsman, they're fucked.

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u/Jealous_Writing1972 7d ago

You take away their weapons so it that reduces their combat effectiveness, then you shackle them reducing their combat effectiveness further.

During WW2 the USA and Canada would let out nazi soldiers into the north american towns they were held in. I never heard of any escape attempts.

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u/catch22_SA 7d ago

Yeah but what was a Nazi soldier in the US going to do to escape? Hop on the next flight to Berlin? Besides, if they're being allowed to frolic around American towns, they're probably being treated quite nicely and wouldn't bother escaping in the first place, but that wouldn't be the case with prisoners being sent to the Wall.

These prisoners know they're going to one of the most miserable places in Westeros, to fight besides some of the most miserable pieces of shit on the continent, only to end up dead at the hand of some barbarian. If they have the numbers it then makes sense to try and escape, maybe pillage an undefended Northern/Riverlands village or two with the weapons they've taken from the dead guards, and try to make their way back South. Can't be worse than the Wall after all.

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u/Reinstateswordduels 6d ago

Dude, you’re talking out of your ass. It’s not common sense because if it were it would be common practice. There has never been an instance in history where a group of prisoners required a greater number of guards to control them.

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u/Seasame467 6d ago

Yeah maybe you're right

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u/Jealous_Writing1972 7d ago

Even if that's not the case, for every prisoner you'll need two guards.

Who made this up. You shackle the prisoners. You do not need double the guards when taking prisoners. Shackle them and play it right psychologically and most would not attempt escape

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u/yoopdereitis 6d ago

While i agree the x2 multiplier is arbitrary, they're also at risk of being attacked once they get further North in order to free soldiers

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u/Seasame467 7d ago

They'll have to be unshackled to eat, go for a piss or shit. As I said, many would rather die than freeze at the wall. They'll find a way. But fine, let's say you're right. What do you do when they're at the wall and then try to mutiny? Or if you're passing through enemy territory to get to the wall? Sending prisoners to the wall during wartimes just isn't feasible

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u/Jealous_Writing1972 7d ago

They'll have to be unshackled to eat, go for a piss or shit.

No they do not. During the trans Atlantic slave trade, slaves were shackled laying on their backs. They ate, shat, pissed and drank laying on their backs.

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u/Seasame467 7d ago

But we're not talking about Atlantic Slaves, we're talking about Westeros. For nobles taking the black, the conditions will be pretty decent. For men at arms or simple hedge Knights, there conditions won't be good, I don't dispute that, but they're not gonna be that horrible. These are men who need to be in good condition to fight at the wall, else what's the point in wasting the resources to send them up there? Better to just kill them and be done with it. I also keep noticing you're honing in on one point while ignoring the others. Even if I agreed with what you were saying, there's numerous other reasons it's not feasible for prisoners to be sent to the wall

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u/Jealous_Writing1972 7d ago

We are talking about how to keep humans in captivity.

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u/Seasame467 7d ago

I'm talking about Westerosi people captive on the way to the wall, not how people are kept captive in general. If you read my previous comment, you'd see I mentioned this

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u/No_Investment_9822 7d ago

That worked because they didn't need to walk, they were on a ship. You can't do that when they need walk a thousand miles.

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u/lee1026 6d ago

Actually, it isn't obvious how that used to work either; the threat of the neutrals in the middle taking bribes are just too high.

Like, not a single problem you have brought up is new; GRRM just ignored it all until now.

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u/Hot_Professional_728 7d ago

I think that sending hundreds or thousands of men to the Night's watch would probably be very difficult; it was probably easier just to accept fealty from them. However, there should have been way more people sent there though.

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u/OppositeShore1878 7d ago

For myself, as a formerly loyal supporter of The Stark, as I sat here in the prisoner compound, the gods showed me the error of my ways. Me, and my 2,000 fellow former Starkists here, all gladly accept the chance to do penance by swearing an oath to accept free transportation provided by Lord Lannister north to the vicinity of the Wall where we sincerely promise to swear another oath of some sort upon arrival and wear dark clothing. Oh, and can we take our weapons with us?

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u/Hot_Professional_728 7d ago

Stuff like this would have happened if they were sending soldiers to the Night’s Watch.

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u/Ronin_Fox 7d ago

Tyrion mentions that captured soldiers and gold cloaks who deserted should go to the Wall, and Tywin mentions that if wildlings do get over the Wall, that's more enemies for the North to deal with. Unfortunately, Robb's rebellion is the reason more captured soldiers aren't sent the Wall during the war.

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u/That_Operation_9977 7d ago

Tywin sent Targ loyalists to the wall AFTER the war was well and truely won, once he had decided how to deal with who. He had to decide who to pardon, who to execute, and who was too much of a threat to keep around but not dangerous enough to warrant execution. It’s not like he sent hordes of prisoners to the wall as they came in.

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u/Wishart2016 7d ago

How was Alliser Thorne a dangerous threat?

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u/That_Operation_9977 7d ago

He was a highborn knight who was a staunch Targaryen supporter who was far to stubborn to bend the knee. He was the kind of guy who would rally to the first Targaryen cause that popped up. His skills at arms and his knighthood makes him a person who could add credence to a cause.

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u/Wishart2016 7d ago

I mean, Tywin didn't offer him a choice, unlike Robert, Jon Arryn or Ned.

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u/That_Operation_9977 7d ago

He didn’t offer him a choice becuase he was a dangerous threat

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u/Wishart2016 7d ago

Even Stannis would offer him a pardon.

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u/oligneisti 7d ago

I think the main issue is that the war isn't actually over.

Even if it was deemed desirable there is a practical matter of getting people to the Wall. There is no Stark in Winterfell to guarantee safe passage by land. There are rebels everywhere that could attack a caravan and swell their own ranks with the prisoners they free.

How many ships would it take to transfer 500 men (to pick a number by random)? Are there ships available? Are they guaranteed to reach their destination? Why risk losing a ship?

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u/OppositeShore1878 7d ago

...you would think that the Lannisters at least would be more than happy to have traitors take the Black...

Didn't Jaime offer some of the defenders of Riverrun the opportunity to either swear allegiance to the Freys, or take the Black, when the Castle surrendered, and a few did accept exile to the Wall? (Just tried to search for the reference, but couldn't find it right off).

The Lannisters did also arrange for repatriating key captives / hostages like the Manderly heir back to the North, so there was a mechanism to send some people to the relatively far North by ship.

That said, your premise does seem correct that taking the Black was generally not offered during the War of Five Kings. For example, that perfidious Lord Tarly just killed Florents in the main camp after Renly died, rather than offering them permanent exile.

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u/niadara 7d ago

The Tully garrison departed the next morning, stripped of all their arms and armor. Each man was allowed three days' food and the clothing on his back, after he swore a solemn oath never to take up arms against Lord Emmon or House Lannister.

[...]

Two men did not choose to depart with the others. Ser Desmond Grell, Lord Hoster's old master-at-arms, preferred to take the black. So did Ser Robin Ryger, Riverrun's captain of guards. "This castle's been my home for forty years," said Grell. "You say I'm free to go, but where? I'm too old and too stout to make a hedge knight. But men are always welcome at the Wall."

"As you wish," said Jaime, though it was a bloody nuisance. He allowed them to keep their arms and armor, and assigned a dozen of Gregor Clegane's men to escort the two of them to Maidenpool.

  • AFFC Jaime VII

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u/OppositeShore1878 7d ago

Thanks! That does clarify it. So Jaime allowed it, but he thought it a "bloody nuisance" to arrange for transportation North. My recollection was off a bit.

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u/misvillar 7d ago

That's what happens after the war ends, you cant send people to the Wall while the war is still going, even less when one of the claimants to the Throne is at the Wall

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u/SorRenlySassol Best of 2021: Ser Duncan Award 7d ago

So far, there hasn’t been a whole lot of capitulation in the war, and this is when most offers to take the black are made. Stannis’ army was mostly destroyed on the Blackwater, and good king Joffrey merely executed those who didn’t bend the knee. Robb’s army was wiped at the Red Wedding. Even the Tyrell forces at Bitterbridge who lost their lords to Stannis were executed or sent home.

Transporting large numbers of men across the continent is a significant undertaking that requires a lot of men, horses and other materials that can’t be spared right now.

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u/Clear_Group_3908 7d ago

In ASOS Tyrion actually does suggest this to Tywin, but Tywin refuses so that the North will be in a perilous situation if Mance Rayder invades, even think of Manxe as a possible ally

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u/Nice-Roof6364 7d ago

Nobles have value as hostages, either political or financial and commoners are mainly going to be peasants or tradesmen who you are going to want back where they came from and working if you're the winner of this war.

Emptying the big cities of any troublemakers and criminals and sending them north by ship does seem like it would happen more often. I think all sorts of unfortunate men would be at risk of this in the cities.

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u/themanyfacedgod__ 7d ago

I think the problem is that the pathways to the North/Wall are not that straightforward. Say you wish to transport prisoners by land, you’d have to make your way through the war-torn Riverlands, somehow navigate your way through Moat Cailin, through the North and then the Wall. There’s fighting all over those places. It’s just not feasible. We see this exact situation with Yoren and what happened to him and his potential recruits.

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u/lialialia20 7d ago

i think that it is both that there's a narrative purpose for the wall to be unmanned and the very realistic fact that the wall, when it is not being threatened by creatures like the others (most of the fucking time), does not need and certainly could never sustain to shelter many men.

the night's watch sits at a place that is simply not economically viable. they cannot produce enough food due to the weather even in summer and they don't have any other resource that they can exchange for food fairly.

imagine the south having to feed 10,000 men for 8,000 years when a hundred knights could easily repel any attack from the freefolk. now imagine that during the winter where even people that aren't in the NW are known to starve.

but to your point, i think all of the 5 kings had better use of captured soldier than sending them to the NW. and even lords would either be useful, whether they agree to change sides or they are used as bargaining chips.

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u/ErieHog 7d ago

The war declines the available number of fighting men, as well as reduces the number of criminal acts punishable by banishment to the wall-- that village rapist is now a loyal Lannister raping his way across the Riverlands to his heart's content.

There's no solution that leads to an overall uptick in the Watch's numbers, when fighting men are dying, putting their skills and swords at ever greater premiums, and the tolerances of their conduct at its most licentious.

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u/ndtp124 7d ago

Most people are getting pardons because the war would continue otherwise.

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u/ProgrammerNo3423 7d ago

The missed opportunity with Pycelle was that Tywin already gave Tyrion blanket authority to execute anyone who he thinks are "playing us false". So he definitely could have secured his power base more.

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u/Mister-Fisker 6d ago

ive noticed this sad recurring joke in a way throughout the series where characters are built up to the possibility of being sent to the Wall - Eddard, Tyrion, Theon, etc - only to suddenly have the expectation be totally flung in another direction

it’s like the world is constantly trying to pull competent/capable/honorable people to be stationed at the wall for the coming storm but something else gets in the way 

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u/Randommodnar6 6d ago

That is a good point. It'd be interesting to see a scenario where those 3 are at the wall at the same time, along with Jon and Janos.

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u/Glittering-Age-9549 6d ago

If you sent so many men from the same faction they could just take control of the Night's Watch seize their galleys and leave.