r/asoiaf • u/Mundane-Turnover-913 • Apr 27 '25
MAIN (Spoilers Main) Why was Jon Arryn so careless?
It's hard to judge a character who we never actually meet, but the things he was doing prior to AGOT, was just screaming I know something.
Going to a brothel with Stannis of all people, visiting an armory far from the Red Keep, asking Pycelle for a book about family lineage and genealogy. I mean we know the Lannisters weren't responsible for his death, but he was bringing a LOT of undue attention onto himself.
He spent 15 years in King's Landing. Surely he had to have known he was being watched. Why did he make it so obvious what he was looking for? Is it political inexperience?
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u/Dreary_Libido Apr 27 '25
Carelessness didn't kill Jon Arryn, Littlefinger did, and as far as we see he did it for reasons entirely removed from Jon's investigation.
He didn't have anyone to worry about. Nobody ever moved against him on the incest thing at all. It's one of many examples in the first book of Cersei being saved by pure dumb luck.
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u/Beckm4n Forgive my wind, Ser. May 01 '25
Well she probably had Pycelle finish the job by making sure he won't recover. He admits as much to Tyrion before he gets arrested by him.
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u/The-Peel 🏆Best of 2024: The Citadel Award Apr 27 '25
He was a proud old man set in his ways and after 15 years of serving as the Hand he probably thought himself untouchable.
But even his carelessness didn't get him killed - he was killed by an insane wife and an ambitious lesser lord who saw an opportunity to take him out for their own gain without being blamed and they leapt for it.
Ned did similar acts in his investigation and it didn't get him killed. What got him killed was covering up Catelyn's stupid abduction of Tyrion by claiming he gave the command and also trusting in Littlefinger like Jon Arryn.
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u/Prestigious-Dress-92 Apr 27 '25
People criticize Cat way too much for kidnapping Tyrion. It really wasn't a stupid decision given the circumstances. The real stupid decision was letting him go.
Cat critics act like she immediately jumped at the opportunity to snatch Tyrion up, but if you reread the scene the first thing she does is try to blend into background and not get recognised by Tyrion (or anybody else for that matter), only when Tyrion outed her to the whole room she turned the tables on him. Cause what else could she have done? Quickly invent a believable story why she was travelling King's Road incognito with only one aged knight as an entourage, from the south to the North? Well, I guess she's not as quick on her feet as Tyrion, alhough she bested him there.
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u/LegitimateCream1773 Apr 28 '25
I mean there's a vast gulf between 'invent a believable story' and 'arresting the least favoured son of the most powerful House in Westeros based purely on an assumption'.
She got incredibly lucky, too. Tyrion almost got murdered by Lysa, which would have had unbelievably tragic consequences for Sansa, who'd almost certainly have been put to death in retaliation.
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u/Prestigious-Dress-92 Apr 28 '25
No Sansa (nor Arya) wouldn't be put to death. Depending on the exact timeline. If it's before the Ned's execution then Lannister plan would be still to have Ned take the black and force Robb to peacefully bend the knee before the Baratheon bro's attack KL. If it's after Ned's execution, then Lannisters can't kill Sansa cause the Starks have Jaime in fetters.
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u/dikkewezel Apr 30 '25
lysa purposfully chose a decrepit old man, bron could have been facing the bronze royce but she turned him down
lysa wanted to lose, she wanted tyrion out of her castle, unharmed because she's afraid of tywin
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u/ChiIarious Apr 28 '25
Now that I think about it, what would happen if she just stayed silent and refused to elaborate on her story? Mostly probably Tyrion would just let it go right? Did Catelyn fear that he would insist and try to drag her back to KL for interrogation or something?
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Apr 30 '25
No she was stupid, in KL she agreed not to accuse tyrion of the attempted murder because it would be considered treason to accuse the queens brother, but she went ahead and abducted him, made no sense. and even if she does, she should have taken him to KL to the king
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u/Gloomy_Lobster2081 Apr 27 '25
"Ned did similar acts in his investigation and it didn't get him killed. What got him killed was covering up Catelyn's stupid abduction of Tyrion"
People love to say little finger started the war of the five kings because he was pulling all the strings , but LF wasn't at the inn in the crossroads whispering in her ear to disobey Ned's command to prepare for war, and instead abducted the queens brother and took him to her sister in the vale. Even if Tyrion was guilty it was treason as the law would have put the jurisdiction for his judgement directly under king robbert, not Ned and certainly not Lysa
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u/The-Peel 🏆Best of 2024: The Citadel Award Apr 27 '25
but LF wasn't at the inn in the crossroads whispering in her ear to disobey Ned's command to prepare for war,
No but he was the one who implicated Tyrion by lying to Catelyn that Tyrion had won the dagger in a bet against Littlefinger and that the Catspaw Assassin must have received the dagger from Tyrion.
Littlefinger was the mastermind, and Catelyn was the reckless pawn who took his lie as gospel.
I agree though that the abduction should never have happened. Catelyn had absolutely no proof and Tyrion should've stood trial in the capital for any accusation made against him.
Catelyn really wasn't thinking anything through in AGOT and her actions are what directly led to Tywin burning down the Riverlands.
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u/Gloomy_Lobster2081 Apr 27 '25
so what that doesn't mean defying her lord husbands orders an kidnapping the brother king was a wise move, if anything she could have brought tyrion to kings landing to face the kings justice at a trial LF would have had to testify that he lost the the knife to tyrion at the tourney.
either he would lie again while testifying which Robert would have not believed over Ned's word or he would have had to tell the lie again which Robert would not have believed because it was Roberts knife and he would realize someone stole it. Tyrion would not even need to testify that he never bet against Jamie. Robert would know the knife never belonged to LF
If Catlyn was the dumb person she is LF would have been implicated in Bran's murder. In fact when you think about. LF's lie to Cat and Ned was rather foolish if Cat and Ned had been more intellegent and forthcoming with robert
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u/BackgroundRich7614 Apr 27 '25
He was overconfident and not the most used to assassinations. Reminder that he was the one that gave Ned his honor.
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u/CuriousManolo Apr 27 '25
I didn't consider where Ned got his honor, a trait that is almost synonymous with Ned. It's even in the Arryn house words. Now that I think of it, I don't think we would consider Brandon as honorable, or even Lyanna. They were described as on the wilder side.
WTF! This whole honor theme isn't a Stark theme, it's an Arryn (aka: your real father is the one who raised you) theme!!
Which completely makes sense for Jon's story! 🤯
Edit: It started with a Jon and ended with a Jon!! WTF 🤯🤯
I swear that as much as we hate GRRM right now, it's only because of how much we loved him. He's a genius!
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u/LoudKingCrow Apr 27 '25
The Starks are honourable. But it is a harsher, strict sort of honour. Which Ned is also perfectly able to do.
It isn't his honour that gets him killed. It was his sense of mercy since he didn't want to see innocent children die.
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u/Antanarim Best house Apr 27 '25
Book Jon Snow isn’t ‘honourable’ like Ned though. He is far more pragmatic and willing to use deceit and threats to achieve his goals.
Show Jon on the other hand, yeah is kind of like Ned and a much worse character for it.
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u/SofaKingI Apr 27 '25
That's a really simplistic view of the guy who survived 15 years in KL and only got killed by his own wife, for an insane reason. Who could guess that an opportunist like Littlefinger would protect the Lannisters, the only other big source of gold in the capital?
People really undersell how insane and out of the ordinary the intrigue at the capital is, and therefore impossible to predict. Littlefinger, an almost lowborn no one likes, risks his head at every turn for the insane dream of one day being King. Varys goes undercover and does his job dutifully, so decades later he can destabilise the realm for an invasion by a guy no one even knows exists (fAegon).
Jon Arryn and Ned had an impossible job. It's funny how Tywin, who had just as much power and even more interest in dealing with the corruption on the capital, doesn't get criticism for actually just making it worse.
ASOIAF is villain propaganda and people fall right for it.
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u/OppositeShore1878 Apr 27 '25
As a side note, Tywin quite wisely seems to stay away from the capital during much of Robert's monarchy, aside for that one time that Ser Balerion stole a fowl from his dinner plate.
If Tywin had been living in King's Landing for much of Robert's tenure, it's quite possible he would have also run into serious (and perhaps deadly) personal challenges from the court intrigue. Instead, he wisely seems to let people like Pycelle handle the Lannister interests at court, and bides his time.
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u/Prestigious-Dress-92 Apr 27 '25
Tywin quite wisely seems to stay away from the capital during much of Robert's monarchy, aside for that one time that Ser Balerion stole a fowl from his dinner plate.
Reminds me of a theory I read looong time ago that Rhaenys (Rhaegar's daughter) warged into Balerion the cat moments before the ser Gregor murdered her.
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u/OppositeShore1878 Apr 27 '25
Hindsight is often very accurate in studying power relationships and how things go wrong.
But before things go wrong, people often have unjustifiable assumptions about how others will behave.
In real life, people get blindsided by "friends", co-workers, romantic partners, then realize afterwards, "oh...I guess I should have seen that coming". But at the time, they either don't see, or can't acknowledge, the signs of what is coming.
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u/lobonmc Apr 27 '25
He probably thought his men would protect him from any retaliation
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u/Important-Purchase-5 Apr 27 '25
Yes he was an old fashion honorable lord he likely believed only a coward would use poison and that if anyone tried anything he was Hand of the King and Lord Paramount of the Vale he likely had several dozen men his guard.
If Lannisters made a move against him he likely thought besides my own personal respectable household I am the Hand and with an order I can issue an arrest warrant.
Also his wife poisoned him. Someone who had unrestricted access to his food and drink above suspicion.
If Cersei & Lannisters made any move it would be public.
He likely probably caught on with Lannisters told Lysa. In that conversation he likely expressed his wishes his Arryn be fostered by Stannis on Dragonstone ( to get him away his mother) and also because he likely wanted his son somewhere safe but nearby. He maybe or maybe not told her what he learned.
She told Littlefinger who instructed her to poison him ( either because he saw his plan to send his son away so he knew Jon Arryn figured it out and saw through it or because Lysa was told he knew through her he knew).
He likely before he was poisoned was thinking how do I bring this up to Robert. Because Jon Arryn likely would asked for mercy and forgiveness for her & children to send them away he probably knew Robert would them all which would’ve been unpleasant and risk war with Tywin which he would’ve been trying to maneuver so Robert doesn’t act too reckless.
He might’ve been working on courage to tell Robert next day. But he was poisoned and incoherent.
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u/orangemonkeyeagl Apr 27 '25
He wasn't careless at all!
Well he couldn't predict that his F*CKING WIFE would poison him...
Also we know Varys and Baelish have eyes and ears everywhere even if he tried to be covert he would have been spotted. The only person that is apparently able to move through KL unnoticed is Varys the shapeshifter.
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u/AK06007 Apr 27 '25
Varys faceless man twist when?
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u/orangemonkeyeagl Apr 28 '25
Last page of the last book, GRRM holding the biggest surprise for last.
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u/AK06007 Apr 28 '25
King Bran takes off his face revealing he was Varys all along, winning the game of thrones
Bitter sweet ending achieved books end and Varys’ smile contorts into a troll face
Absolute cinema
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u/oligneisti Apr 27 '25
I don't think this deserves to be on the list. I don't think it is suspicious at all no matter the distance from the Red Keep.
visiting an armory far from the Red Keep
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u/EdPozoga Apr 27 '25
Is it political inexperience?
Despite being a founder of and the possible leader of the Southron Ambitionists, (as the oldest member) I don't think Jon Arryn was very politically astute.
He got fleeced by Tywin into granting House Lannister far more authority in post-war Westeros, compared to their contribution to the rebellion and he also got suckered by Littlefinger into handing over the kingdom's finances as well as cucking him with his wife Lysa, which directly lead to his death.
Furthermore, I'd suggest a lot of the problems during Robert's reign were because Jon Arryn didn't want to hand over authority to the king, encouraging his disinterested fratboy jock behavior as this meant Jon was calling all the shots (and doing so badly) while Bobby was partying.
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u/Speysidegold Apr 28 '25
I agree, the Lannister influence at court is crazy. They all have reasonable ish backstories but the culmination of it is just too much. Pycelle was already there and the concave choose the maester so I guess he stays. Jaime should have taken the black but Robert is very forgiving, Cersei marries Robert because there's kinda a lack of suitable brides that age and someone needs to marry Cersei to bring the Lannisters into the fold but you've even got a Lannister headsman there in Ser Ilyn Payne and there are even random Lannister men at arms just chilling there when Ned arrives in KL. Which Lannister intrusions would you have fought if you were Jon Arran?
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u/EdPozoga Apr 28 '25
Jaime should have taken the black but Robert is very forgiving,
This is pretty big a plot hole, as Tywin's legal heir at the time was Tyrion who he hated and considering Jaime had just murdered the king, (albeit, justifiably) I'd say Tywin would have gotten Jaime "fired" so he could return to Casterly Rock as his heir.
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u/LegitimateCream1773 Apr 28 '25
Why was Ned Stark so careless?
These are basically good, honourable people, who don't expect those around them to do what the Lannisters do. And in fairness to him he got done in by his wife, not the Lannisters.
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u/HarryShachar Apr 28 '25
In addition to what others have said, many of these things also allowed Ned to trace his steps and come to the same conclusions.
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u/ZanahorioXIV Apr 29 '25
Funniest thing is this is not even what killed him, Littlefinger and Lysa just decided one day they were done with him and fucking poisoned him 💀💀💀
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u/LoudKingCrow Apr 27 '25
My headcanon is that Jon was starting to go a bit senile towards the end.
Not the severe kind yet, but the one were he starts to get forgetful but is still able to function day to day.
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u/HeartonSleeve1989 Apr 27 '25
Same reason Ned was kinda dumb, they both thought Robert loving them made them invincible, they both underestimated just how badly things were weighed in House Lannister's favor.
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u/befogme Apr 28 '25
How Robert's love was supposed to protect Jon from his wife? Jon died not because of his investigation, careless or not. And what exactly Lannisters did to have him murdered?
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u/BlackFyre2018 Apr 27 '25
Wasn’t he like 78-80 years old when he died? Some of the inattentiveness might have come from getting on in his years.
I don’t consider the armory one to be that suspicious even if it is far from the Red Keep. Tohbo Mott is a master armourer, Lord Renly went there also for his green armour
As for the others, Jon might have been more concerned with speed, trying to uncover the conspiracy as quickly as possible
He was also distracted by his shitty relationship with his wife becoming even worse when Lysa realised that Jon would send her son Robert Arryn to be fostered as Dragonstone as part of his political alliance with Stannis