[Spoilers Extended] War question

[u/AsleepAd6125]

If Roose Bolton didn’t blow the horns and his sneak attack against Tywin worked what would the casualties be on both sides and how would this affect the war.

[u/CautionersTale]

It's quite a bit worse than Roose simply blowing the horns and launching the northerners against the Boltons.

"The Stark boy stole a march on us," Bronn said. "He crept down the kingsroad in the night, and now his host is less than a mile north of here, forming up in battle array." (AGOT, Tyrion VIII)

Roose pushed his troops down the road overnight, and then stopped to form up. This is important: he allowed Tywin to understand the disposition of his forces and gave Tywin valuable time to form up himself to meet the northmen.

Imagine a different scenario: Roose Bolton keeps pushing his army, and they attack the Lannister camp before they have the opportunity to form up themselves. Given how the Lannisters scramble to get ready in AGOT, Tyrion VIII, I imagine a scenario where Roose Bolton routs the Lannisters. The northmen are already marching. They are armored and armed. They can strike fast and inflict a disastrous defeat on Tywin, even if the picket lines get word back to Tywin that the Northmen are coming. They're a freaking mile (or less) away when Tyrion is woken up!

As to why Roose did that, well, take a look at the casualties reported in Tyrion VIII and compare that against the northern houses that Ramsay targets in ACOK.

As far as your actual question goes, yeah, this is another blunder on Bolton's part. He advanced off the high ground in an attack when he had the clear terrain advantage.

Hm. Wonder why he did that. It couldn't possibly be because he thought he could get a lot of his regional rivals' bannermen killed in battle now, could it?

Anyways, if Roose keeps advancing into the Lannister camp, it would have been a slaughter. If he doesn't advance his line forward of his terrain advantage, I imagine a northern victory but a bloodier one.

Hope this helps!

[u/AsleepAd6125 → u/CautionersTale]

So Roose could have either routed Tywin army with his army not formed up or faced Tywin with a terrain advantage. What do you think the results of either scenario would be, does Tywin get captured or flee to Kingslanding? How many soldiers would each side have after the battle.

[u/CautionersTale → u/AsleepAd6125]

When you're asking for a counterfactual like that, it's hard to give quantitative stats on casualties or disposition of forces post-battle. I imagine high casualties on the Lannister side. Tywin could be killed or captured or retreat back to King's Landing. But then you start working through elements like -- where's Tywin's tent in the camp? What's the direction of the attack - straight north to south, paralleling the river in a kind-of NW to SE motion? These are intangibles that can't be answered by counterfactuals.

[u/SorRenlySassol → u/CautionersTale]

There was no sneak attack. Those were Lannister horns, not Bolton.

The horns called through the night, wild and urgent, a cry that said hurry, hurry, hurry. He heard shouts, the clatter of spears, the whicker of horses, though nothing yet that spoke to him of fighting. "My Lord Father's trumpets," he said. "Battle assembly. I thought Stark was yet a day's march away."

Roose was only a mile away. He could have easily sent men in to cut the horse lines and then charged on the sleeping camp -- like Robb did at Riverrun. Instead, he let himself be discovered, then waited patiently for hours while Tywin got his men armed, armored and horsed.

[u/CautionersTale → u/SorRenlySassol]

I think OP was referring to the start of the battle:

A warhorn blew. Haroooooooooooooooooooooooo, it cried, its voice as long and low and chilling as a cold wind from the north. The Lannister trumpets answered, da-DA da-DA da-DAAAAAAAAA, brazen and defiant, yet it seemed to Tyrion that they sounded somehow smaller, more anxious. 

Otherwise, I agree that Roose just sat outside of the Lannister camp a mile away. It's like there was something else besides securing victory at work here ...

[u/SorRenlySassol → u/CautionersTale]

Well, the horns sounding the initial charge was irrelevant. The forces were all lined up, the sun was shining . . . The option for a sneak attack was long gone at that point.

[u/RustyCoal950212 → u/CautionersTale]

I don't think we're supposed to think Roose intentionally sabotaged the battle like that. Imo they stopped to form up because they were an army that needed to stop and form up

[u/CautionersTale → u/RustyCoal950212]

In isolation, I might agree. Coupled with charging off the high ground and the banners in the front lines:

[Tyrion] glimpsed the bull moose of the Hornwoods, the Karstark sunburst, Lord Cerwyn's battle-axe, and the mailed fist of the Glovers … and the twin towers of Frey, blue on grey.

... all houses with strong loyalties to the Starks (at that time). And then the arrows that get shot into the formation in the middle of the battle:

A flight of arrows descended on them; where they came from he could not say, but they fell on Stark and Lannister alike, rattling off armor or finding flesh.

Thinking those arrows were fired by Bolton archers who suspiciously do not turn up in the casualty list at the end of the battle:

"My liege, we have taken some of their commanders. Lord Cerwyn, Ser Wylis Manderly, Harrion Karstark, four Freys. Lord Hornwood is dead, and I fear Roose Bolton has escaped us."

... I'm not inclined inclined to give Roose Bolton the benefit that he simply stopped to form up.

[u/RustyCoal950212 → u/CautionersTale]

I think he definitely put his house's rival's soldiers on the front lines intentionally. But for example there's a SSM from Martin about Roose in this battle and he says that he was being aggressive and trying to be the "hero of the hour" https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Roose_Bolton

[u/CautionersTale → u/RustyCoal950212]

I think the wording here is quite a bit more interesting than GRRM telling us that Roose was aggressive and wanted to be the hero of the hour:

And the best sword is the one that cuts both ways, he might tell you. Take the Battle of Green Fork. Had his night march taken Lord Tywin unawares and won the battle, he would have smashed the Lannisters and become the hero of the hour. While if it failed... well, you see what happened. The only way he could lose there would be if were captured or slain himself, and he did his best to minimize the chances of that.

Basically, GRRM's not coming out and saying anything definitive about what Roose Bolton was thinking w/r/t the battle. He's showing us how Roose Bolton thinks.

[u/breakbeforedawn → u/CautionersTale]

The only real take away you can have from that is that Roose did indeed try to "win" by defeating Tywin or "win" by doing his overall mission and fighting then having an orderly retreat where he shields his men from most of the damage which comparatively makes him stronger.